Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 302000 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
300 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WITH CU NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE. SMOKE FROM
THE WESTERN FIRES IS CONTRIBUTING TO A MILKY-LIKE SKY ACROSS THE
AREA. ONE MINOR CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH THE SMOKE WILL CUT THE
DOWN THE SUN MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST-EAST MONDAY AT
THE MID-LEVELS SO THERE WILL BE SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ND AND WILL BE APPROACHING
WESTERN MN BY THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREAS. WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT YIELDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INHIBIT ANY SUBSTANTIAL EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD INTO NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WILL KEEP FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA DRY. THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL TURN INTO A
MORE DEVELOPED WARM FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. PERIODIC
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO DIURNAL HEATING. AS THE EAST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO EVENTUALLY
BREAK DOWN...A STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MAKE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE NORTHLAND ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS FOR THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH MINNESOTA ON MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY AND NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH IS
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE OVER ALL TERMINALS NOW AS THE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
HAVE DISSIPATED. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20
KNOTS WILL BE AT DLH BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
INTRODUCED IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z AS CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  84  64  84 /  10  10  30  20
INL  64  84  55  82 /  10  20  20  10
BRD  65  85  60  85 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  62  83  65  84 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  63  86  65  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...KK



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