Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDLH 182353 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
653 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES COVERING
THE TWIN PORTS...ARROWHEAD...AND NW WI. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLJ WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SW
INTO WESTERN MN. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME CAPE (500-700) WITH THE PRECIP
SO WILL HAVE A CHC TSTMS WITH THE RAIN. AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...IT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...A SHARPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO MN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY NIGHT...EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AFFECT
THE FA WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAST PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS. THE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE E AND A
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE SMALL POPS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WHILE MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING...THERE WAS A LARGE AREA OF OVC
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER SOME AREAS
INLAND...INCLUDING THE KDLH AND KHIB AREAS. THE REGION HAD ESE TO
SE WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THE IFR/MVFR CIGS AFFECTING KDLH/KHIB WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AND/OR
MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS LATER THIS EVENING...SO A RETURN TO VFR IS
LIKELY.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
SSW LOW LEVEL JET...ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS...WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
THE FORECASTS INCLUDE LLWS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
SOME GUSTS LATER TONIGHT...DO NOT BELIEVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO DROP LLWS UNTIL DAWN.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
MAY BE OVER NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS
APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW CIGS AND A TRANSITION
TOWARDS MVFR CIGS. AN APPROACHING FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING SHOWERS...MAYBE STORMS...THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT...LET OUT ALONE
TIMING...OF STORMS IS LOW. THEREFORE LEFT OUT STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  64  59  68 /  20  70  30  50
INL  54  69  54  65 /  60  60  60  60
BRD  56  71  58  71 /  20  50  10  40
HYR  54  68  61  71 /  10  60  30  40
ASX  49  67  60  69 /  10  60  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.