000
FXUS63 KDLH 231728
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1128 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

ALLOWED THE PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE FREEZING PRECIP HAS WELL SINCE ENDED AND
REPORTS OF IMPROVING ROAD CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. ALSO HAD
A REPORT OF GOOD ROAD CONDITIONS IN CASS COUNTY...SO DECIDED TO
END THAT PORTION AS WELL. AREAS TO THE EAST ARE STILL SEEING SOME
DIFFICULT CONDITIONS AND THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO FALL...SO WILL
KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR THIS AREA UNTIL NOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 526 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

AT 4 AM...ROADS AND OTHER SURFACES WERE STARTING TO ICE UP ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND. WE HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF ICY ROADS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE IRON RANGE.
WHILE TEMPS HAD ALREADY CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING IN SOME
AREAS...MNDOT ROAD CONDITION SENSORS ARE INDICATING ROAD SURFACE
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE BIG FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE ICING POTENTIAL. IT WILL BE A
HIGH POP AND LOWER QPF EVENT...BUT EVEN A SMALL AMOUNT OF ICING
WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS GENERALLY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE...AND WILL FOLLOW THEM FOR THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION
TRENDS FAIRLY CLOSELY. ICING SHOULD BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH...BUT STILL EXPECT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS
THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MIDDAY...AND
ROAD AND AIR TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. AS A RESULT OF THE
EXPANDED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...WE HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHLAND. HAVE CHOPPED OFF
KOOCHICHING COUNTY WITH THIS ISSUANCE...AND WILL JUST REMOVE
COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY AS THE THREAT ENDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WELL. SOME SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
SCATTERED PRECIP ON SATURDAY AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH WELL
INTO THE 30S...AND WILL NOT DROP OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE NORTHLAND WILL SEE A SERIES OF QUICK SUCCESSION NW TO SE MOVING
WAVES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE COMES SATURDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER WILL MOVE
FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS CLIPPER WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2
INCHES LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. SOME AREAS COULD SEE UP TO 3
INCHES. THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE GFS AND
GEM ARE MORE BULLISH FOR SNOW OVER THE NORTHLAND COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF...BUT THEIR TIMING APPEARS TO BE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
THEREFORE...INCREASED PCPN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER...BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. ANOTHER
CLIPPER...MUCH WEAKER THAN THE FIRST...COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING OF
SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER. ANOTHER CLIPPER COULD MOVE WEST TO EAST
ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT NORTHERLY ARCTIC FLOW WILL REDEVELOP LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH AN
MVFR CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS MAY DETERIORATE TO
IFR...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REDUCE
CEILINGS BELOW AROUND 1200 FEET. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW...BUT
COULD SEE SOME SHORT DURATION FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10KTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  29  32  18 /  60  20  20  70
INL  36  24  26  11 /  20  30  30  70
BRD  36  27  34  23 /  60  10  20  70
HYR  34  30  34  20 /  60  20  20  70
ASX  36  29  33  18 /  60  20  20  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ034>038.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BJT/JJM
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...JJM