


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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202 FXUS63 KDLH 081124 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 624 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Departing storms this morning, with the chance for more to develop in northwest Wisconsin this afternoon. - Temperatures and humidity increase for Wednesday into Thursday. - Chances for strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday across north central Minnesota, with general thunderstorm chances continuing into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Lingering instability within the back side of the trough is helping to sustain some thunderstorms this early morning. These storms will move off to the northeast later this morning. Reinvigoration of instability later this morning into the afternoon continues the chances for thunderstorms later this afternoon, particularly across northwest Wisconsin. Some storms could be strong, but severe weather is not expected due to some slight capping aloft. A high pressure will build in for Wednesday. Humidity and temperatures will start to increase as flow switches to the south in addition to a ridge moving east into the region. The warmest day will be Thursday, with highs in the low to mid 80s away from Lake Superior. Despite the high humidity from dewpoints in the 60s, heat indices across the region will also remain in the low to mid 80s with some isolated areas reaching 90 in the afternoon across north central Minnesota. Wednesday night, as the warm air mass moves to the Northland with a small trough aloft, some thunderstorms could initiate across north central Minnesota. If any do develop, they will be elevated due to a cap around 850 mb. As surface temperatures warm throughout the morning, the cap will weaken and storms will likely become more surface based by the afternoon. The highest instability remains to our west, but we will see MUCAPE of a 1500-2500 J/kg across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Severe weather will be possible throughout the afternoon and evening, and all hazards will be possible. Additionally, PWATs in the 90th percentile and weak flow aloft will lead to slow moving storms with heavy rain, and some localized flooding is possible across our CWA. More storms are expected on Friday as a cold front moves through, and depending on how long showers and storms linger through the morning will determine whether instability can once again increase for the afternoon and increase the threat for severe weather. Chances for showers and storms will continue through the weekend and into early next week as a couple more troughs move over the Northern Plains. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Scattered low clouds will linger this morning, but will improve to VFR throughout the mid morning. Fog is possible again tonight, though uncertainty is still high and will need to be refined throughout the day. HIB and DLH currently have the best probabilities for IFR to LIFR visibilities due to fog. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Northeast winds increase for the afternoon, especially at the head of Lake Superior. Winds up to 15 kts are expected. Isolated storms are possible over western Lake Superior, especially this morning. Winds will decrease tonight and will remain below 15 kts for Wednesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...KML MARINE...KML