Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 191444

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
944 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Issued at 934 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Updated to increase cloud cover and adjust afternoon temps based
on current trends. Radar does show some returns along the
international border but none of it is reaching the ground due to
the dry air. Goes-R visible satellite does show some cu over the
arrowhead but nothing is being reported from them. Rest of fcst


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Conditions look to remain dry across the Northland through the
morning hours today, as sfc high pressure remains in control. A cold
front boundary, with associated 850-700 mb Q-vector convergence and
mid-level shortwave trough, will advance through the Northland this
afternoon and evening. Chances of precipitation look to develop
across the eastern one-half of our forecast area as more robust
isentropic lift develops across this area. Latest RAP/NAM model
soundings indicate a lack of deep moisture out ahead of the front,
so little in the way of precipitation accumulation is expected.
Increasing temperatures for today are expected as 850-700 mb layer
warm air advection strengthens ahead of the cold frontal boundary as
return flow from the sfc high pressure system develops over the
region. 925 mb temperatures look to increase into the single digits
above zero for much of the Northland, except for near zero along the
Minnesota Arrowhead, so highs today could reach into the upper 40s
and lower 50s, except for some upper 30s across the Arrowhead
region. South to southwest winds look to increase later this morning
and afternoon as an enhanced 850 mb low-level jet lobe advances
through the region just ahead of the cold front boundary. These 850
mb winds look fairly strong, with wind magnitudes between 50 to 55
kts. Soundings indicate that boundary layer mixing won`t reach quite
as high as 850 mb, but could reach near 900 mb, so momentum
transport will help increase sfc winds today to some degree. Gusts
between 20 to 25 kts are possible. Chances of precipitation should
decrease later in the evening as the better isentropic lift moves to
the east.

Then, once the sfc cold front moves out, mid-level zonal flow
develops, which will help keep conditions quiet through the day
Monday. Sfc high pressure region, along with a drier air mass, will
support mostly sunny skies for Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

An upper level trough will carve itself out over the Great Lakes
region during the first part of the long term period. Westerly flow
on Monday evening will transition to northwest flow by Tuesday.
Canadian high pressure will build in starting Monday night, with
below normal temperatures during the early to middle parts of the
upcoming work week. By 12Z Wednesday, the surface high will be
centered just north of the Minnesota Arrowhead. Upper level heights
will then build as an upper level ridge develops across the central
United States. Moisture advancing into the region ahead of a long
wave trough in the western states will start to move in on Wednesday
night, with a chance of rain and snow changing to all snow Wednesday
night. While the ECMWF and GFS continue to show some differences in
the timing and location of the greatest QPF for the major system
late in the week, they all generally agree that there will be a high
chance of precipitation from Thursday afternoon into Friday. We
should see a great deal of precipitation type changes during the
latter part of the week, with a mix of rain, snow, and perhaps some
night-time freezing rain or sleet. Overall, it looks like we are
entering a period of more active weather from late this week into
the weekend. Highs on Tuesday will range from the middle 20s in the
north to the middle 30s in the south. Highs will rise into the 40s
by Thursday and Friday, and generally remain there into the weekend.
The coldest night will be on Tuesday night, with lows ranging from
near zero in the Minnesota Arrowhead, to the lower teens south.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Widespread VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. A
weak front and area of low pressure will move across the region
today and tonight. While a brief period of MVFR CIG`s will be
possible, we are largely expecting VFR conditions to prevail. A
few showers will also be possible this afternoon, but coverage
will be minimal, and mainly in the eastern portions of the area.


DLH  48  29  46  19 /  10  10   0  10
INL  47  26  45  12 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  54  30  50  22 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  51  29  49  22 /  20  10   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  22 /  20  20   0  10




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