Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
000
FXUS63 KDLH 171537
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1037 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Updated the forecast through tonight, mainly to reflect the latest
consensus of the higher resolution short term models` timing on
the rain. Also, think once it clears up later tonight and light
wind speeds develop, a good setup for fog will develop considering
residual soil moisture from the rain. Added patchy/areas of fog to
parts of the Northland. The best chances of fog will be across
northeast Minnesota because of better clearing, and because those
areas received the greatest rainfall.

UPDATE Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Updated aviation section below for 12Z TAF TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Rain comes to an end today as the low pressure system centered over
the Twin Cities early this morning lifts northeast towards eastern
Lake Superior tonight. Rain showers will gradually come to an end
from west to east today, with winds becoming out of the north in the
wake of the low. Clearing skies tonight as drier air briefly moves
in, then a chance for diurnally-driven showers and storms for parts
of central/north central Minnesota on Friday afternoon as a mid-
level shortwave trough races across the eastern Dakotas southeast
towards southern Minnesota. Limited instability and weak winds
through the column will lead to just some isolated/scattered short-
lived showers and storms, but certainly not a washout. Cooler today
in the 60s for highs, then lows in the 50s tonight as skies clear
out. Warmer with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Friday night and Saturday a ridge of high pressure should keep the
weather relatively quiet for the area, with temperatures slightly
above normal.

Saturday night and Sunday a weak cold front is progged to drop
through the area from the northwest, accompanied by a weak shortwave
aloft.  Do not expect much out of this boundary either period, but
am carrying some slight to low end chance pops with above normal
temperatures.

Sunday night through Monday night the cold front sags to just south
of the area, and serves as the focus for shower and thunderstorm
development as a shortwave ripples across the area through the broad
troughing aloft.  At this time range am not terribly confident in
the timing of this wave, but models have been rather consistent over
the last few runs and have gone with chance to low end likely pops
for some areas during this time range.  Unless this trend changes,
it is likely to be too cloudy for eclipse watching in the local area.

Tuesday through Thursday appear to be dry for the area with the
upper level trough to our east and northwest flow aloft with a
strong surface ridge building into the area.  Temperatures cool off
to near to below normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

A low pressure system moving northeast across Wisconsin and upper
Michigan will bring rainfall and MVFR/IFR conditions to all the
terminals through at least 21z this afternoon. A slow improvement trend
will move in from the west after 21z as the low pressure system
moves off to the east. However, KINL and KBRD are not expected to
return to VFR until 00z. KDLH may also return to VFR around 00z,
but the remaining terminals should remain MVFR/IFR through the end
of the TAF period. Precipitation should end from west to east
after 18z, with all sites becoming dry by 02z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  55  76  56 /  80  10  20  10
INL  67  50  77  53 /  90  10  20  10
BRD  68  54  76  54 /  80   0  30  20
HYR  69  56  75  54 /  80  20  20  10
ASX  67  59  76  57 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ141>143-
     146-147.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ144-
     145.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for LSZ121-140-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.