Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 141144 AAA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
544 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Please see the new 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 408 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

A quiet weekend with high pressure covering the forecast area
today through Sunday. A WNW flow aloft today will transition to a
westerly flow by tonight. A small upper level impulse will move
along the Canadian border tonight, but due to a lack of moisture,
will only see some passing high clouds. Warm air advection begins
on Sunday with 850mb temps warming from -4C in the morning, to 2C
in the afternoon. Max temps will reach the teens today, and the
20s on Sunday. Lows tonight will be in the single digits below
zero, single digits above zero near Lake Superior.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 408 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

A storm system will move through the Upper Mississippi River
Valley early next week bringing a wintry mix of precipitation.
Temperatures will remain well above normal for the second half of
the week.

A deep trough of low pressure located over the western United
States will shift eastward across the Rockies and into the Plains
early next week. Model solutions seem to be latching onto a
preferred evolution with this system and looks similar to
yesterday`s runs. A cutoff low near the Big Bend area of Texas
Sunday evening will lift northeast toward the lower Missouri River
Valley by Monday night. Meanwhile, a northern stream shortwave
trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies and into
the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. These two features will
phase by Tuesday morning somewhere over Wisconsin, Minnesota, or
Iowa. Surface low pressure will accompany the cutoff low bringing
a broad area of precipitation into the Northland by Monday
afternoon. With the prolonged period of southerly flow ahead of
this system and warmer air aloft wrapping into the low, there
continues to be a potential for a wintry mix of snow, sleet,
freezing rain, or rain Monday afternoon through early Tuesday
morning over inland portions of northwest Wisconsin. Precipitation
is expected to fall as all snow farther west into the St. Croix
Valley and portions of east-central and northeast Minnesota.

Model differences become apparent as the trough lifts out of the
region Tuesday night and Wednesday. The GFS and GEM feature a
second northern stream shortwave moving into the region Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday morning. They also suggest the initial
cutoff low will open to a progressive shortwave while the northern
stream trough digs a new center of low pressure somewhere over the
Central Plains or Upper Midwest. Those solutions push the surface
low eastward a bit quicker while the upper trough loiters over the
area until the second northern shortwave kicks it eastward
Wednesday morning. The ECMWF has a much weaker secondary shortwave
and features a more progressive evolution of the surface and upper
low. Leaned a little more toward the GFS/GEM solution with a
slight chance of light snow lingering in northwest Wisconsin
Tuesday night.

Another shot of warm Pacific air will follow Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday night with temperatures climbing well above
normal. It`s possible most of the Northland may see high
temperatures above freezing Wednesday through the remainder of the
work week. There is a potential for another storm system to move
into the area Friday night through Saturday, but confidence is low
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 544 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

High pressure will settle across northeast Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin today with relatively light winds and mainly
clear skies expected. There may be a period of MVFR ceilings or
even some light snow showers at HIB this afternoon with winds
aloft veering northwest, but remaining southwesterly near the
surface. With light winds expected tonight, efficient radiational
cooling is anticipated. There is a slight chance visibilities may
lower into MVFR if ice fog develops as a result of the cooling.
Confidence in this forecast package is above average.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17   1  24  11 /   0   0   0   0
INL  13  -2  26   9 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  19  -3  26  11 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  19  -4  24  10 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  21   3  28  14 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LSZ121-
     140>148.

     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for
     LSZ140.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Huyck
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Huyck



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