Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 192149
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
349 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

COLD AND SNOWY PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST
WAS SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL TONIGHT.

TODAY...OFF AND ON SHOWERS WERE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...WITH SOME INTENSE SHOWERS BRIEFLY REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. ACCUMULATION WAS UP TO AN
INCH IN MOST SPOTS. WINDS WERE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH 25-35 KT WINDS
MIXING DOWN DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

TONIGHT...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS END ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MN AND
NORTHWEST WI LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE NEAR THE
WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN BORDER. CONDITIONS ARE VERY GOOD FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL...WHILE WIND DIRECTION IS A BIT MORE WESTERLY THAN IDEAL
FOR GOOD FETCH LENGTH...LAKE TEMP OF AROUND 5 C /40 F/ AND 850 MB
TEMPS OF -20 WILL RESULT IN UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG OF LAKE-INDUCED
CAPE. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS RECEIVE UP TO 10 INCHES DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE BEST BANDS SET UP. ELSEWHERE...OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION.

TOMORROW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE DAY
AND SKIES EVERYWHERE WILL BE ON A CLEARING TREND AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT
5 TO 10 KTS. THE AREA OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER TEENS...AND REMAINING
THE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS /ABOVE ZERO/ ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. THESE
HIGHS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ACTUALLY BREAKING ANY OF THE LOW MAX RECORDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE SURGE OF WARM AIR COMING
FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE NEXT POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A RAPIDS DE-AMPLICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MUCH MORE ZONAL. THIS
FLOW BECOMES A S/WV WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AFTER IT IS
EJECTED FROM A TROF THAT IS DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
TROF WILL BE AFFECTING HE NORTHLAND LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY IN THE
WEEK.

BUT...FIRST...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIP ACROSS THE
REGION...SWINGING WINDS SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL TURN OFF THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW OVER NRN WI. AND IT WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF INTENSE WARM
AIR ADVECTION. FRIDAY MORNING STARTS OUT WITH 8H TEMPS OF -10 TO -16
WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE 0 DEGREE ISOTHERM WILL BE WELL INTO
NORTHERN WI.  THE WARM UP BROUGHT BY THIS AIR MASS WILL BE TEMPERED
BY THE THICK SNOW COVER AND CLOUDS...BUT TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO ABOUT
NORMAL. AS THE WARM AIR ARRIVES THERE WILL BE FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
NORTHCENTRAL WI SATURDAY AS THERE WILL BE NO SEEDING FROM ABOVE THE
LOW LEVEL INVERSION...THEN AS SFC TEMPS WARM IT WILL CHANGE TO
DRIZZLE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND WILL BE ARRIVING
ON SUNDAY WHEN THE NRN STREAM TROF DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT A SFC LOW WILL FORM AND MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AT THIS TIME
WE ARE LOOKING AT SOME ERRATIC MOVEMENTS AND NOT ALOT OF
CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. BUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR MIXED PCPN UNTIL COLDER AIR ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
CAUSING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND SNOW...BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON
FINAL LOW PATH AND PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGEOVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AMCST WED NOV 19 2014

MVFR CIGS WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. OCNL VSBYS BLO 4SM IN SOME SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT
MAINLY VFR AFT 10Z. WINDS FROM 290 TO 310 DEGREES WILL INCREASE
TO G25 THIS AFTERNOON AND DECREASE TO BLO 25 KTS AFT 02Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   2  12   0  20 /  40   0   0   0
INL  -1  10  -5  23 /  70  10  10   0
BRD   2  14  -3  23 /  10   0   0   0
HYR   1  14  -6  21 /  60  10   0   0
ASX   6  15   0  22 /  90  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-145>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






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