Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 150525

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1125 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Issued at 1125 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

High pressure has led to mostly clear skies and light winds this
evening. Temperatures have been quite variable across the
Northland and even at individual locations. KINL had dropped to -5
but has risen to 1 due to an increase in the wind. We dropped
temperatures several degrees across most of the Northland tonight
but there will likely continue to be quite a bit of variability as
the wind goes between calm and 3 mph to 6 mph.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

The first day of a rather major warmup was off to a great start,
as temperatures rose into the teens and 20s across the region. The
warmest location appears to be Silver bay Harbor, which was
reporting 30 degrees as of 3 pm. This was partially due to
downslope compressional warming. Aside from temperatures, abundant
sunshine was found across the Northland.

The main focus for tonight and Sunday will generally be
temperatures and cloud cover. With dry air holding firm between an
area of low pressure to the north and developing low pressure well
to the south, we should see clear skies tonight and sunny skies on
Sunday. Temperatures should generally fall below zero again
tonight, but rise into the 20s for most areas on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

The main concern in the extended is an area of low pressure
moving into the Upper Midwest from the Central Plains, which will
bring a wintry mix of precipitation early this week. The trough
associated with the low will cutoff across eastern NM late on
Sunday and lift northeastward into the Central Plains by Monday
afternoon. This feature will move northeastward into the Upper
Midwest on Monday and exit the Northland late on Tuesday. Another
trough will dig in from the northwest late on Monday and into
Tuesday. The latest forecast guidance keeps these two pieces of
energy separate with the cutoff lifting into the Central Great
Lakes late on Tuesday. There is still some discrepancy between the
GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF in how quickly the precipitation moves in. At
the moment the NAM is the outlier, so leaned on the GFS/GEM/ECMWF
with precipitation chances by Monday afternoon across the southern
half of the CWA. Based on thermal profiles of the GFS/ECMWF/GEM
expecting a wintry mix of freezing rain, snow, sleet, freezing
rain or rain Monday evening into Tuesday. With the best chances of
freezing rain mainly over NW WI, but may leak into the I-35
corridor in NE MN. Farther to the north and west, precipitation
will remain all snow. Snow amounts from the I-35 corridor east
range from 1 to 2 inches, while lesser amounts can be expected
further to the north and west.

As was seen with the previous model runs, guidance is still all over
the place with the progression of the second trough. The ECMWF/GEM
cut off the trough over the Central Plains late on
Tuesday/Wednesday, while the GFS is more progressive moving the
trough into the Ohio River Valley by Wednesday. Leaned on the
ECWMF/GEM, which is the drier solution for Tuesday evening into

Expect dry conditions for much of the week as high pressure builds
over the Northern Plains. Next chance of precipitation comes late on
the week as a low move into the Northland from the Central Plains.
At the moment expecting a rain/snow mixture before becoming all
snow. Expecting warmer than normal temperatures through the
extended. Highs late in the week will range from the mid 30`s to low
40`s. Low temperatures late in the week range from the 20`s to the
low 30`s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Dry high pressure was in control of the regions weather. VFR
conditions are expected through the period with the possible
exception of patchy fog tonight. KBRD recently reported 7sm so we
included a mention of fog there over the next few hours. We also
added a mention of LLWS to KINL and KHIB late tonight into Sunday.


DLH   1  25  12  27 /   0   0   0  20
INL -10  25   8  27 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  -8  25  10  28 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  -8  28  10  30 /   0   0   0  50
ASX   0  28  14  32 /   0   0   0  30


LS...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 4 AM CST Monday for



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