Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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621
FXUS63 KDLH 240554 AAB
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1254 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Update for new 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

The upper low that has kept us busy for a few days over eastern
Lake Superior will continue to move east over the next 24 hours,
allowing a surface ridge of high pressure to build into the area
tonight and Monday. This evening, the cumulus clouds that are over
the area should dissipate with sunset. The area that remains more
stratus in nature is the concern, mainly hanging out over
northwest Wisconsin as of issuance time. Some models push it south
this evening, others are maintaining it in some form or another
overnight, kind of stuck in the col of the surface ridge building
in. Am currently favoring having it continue to push south as we
have seen going on this afternoon, so have styled sky grids in
that way. However, due to the recent rainfall, lingering higher RH
and the light winds expect fog development tonight. Some areas
may need a Fog Advisory beginning around midnight tonight as long
as the clouds clear off. With all these cloud cover issues min
temps were somewhat tricky. Where I am more confident of clearing
have pushed mins down a little, but otherwise only made small
changes to the forecast. Monday looks warmer with more sunshine
than we had today, and adjusted max temps up slightly.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

A chance for strong to severe storms Tuesday into early
Wednesday, then seasonable temperatures and dry through the rest
of the work week as an area of high pressure builds across the
Upper Great Lakes. Next chance for precipitation arrives mid to
late next weekend.

On the synoptic scale the recurrent ridging over the
Rockies/Great Basin region that has developed numerous times over
the past few weeks looks to develop once again late this week.
Before that, a compact mid-level shortwave trough will dig across
the Canadian Prairie region early this week with a resulting
surface low pressure over northern Manitoba Tuesday lifting east
towards Hudson Bay Tuesday night. A warm front will lift northeast
across northern Minnesota through the day Tuesday into northern
Wisconsin late Tuesday. This will result the warm sector across
the Northland late Tuesday, with moderately steep mid-level lapse
rates resulting in 1000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE available by Tuesday
evening. However, limited surface heating is possible during the
day Tuesday due stratus/light rain showers developing Tuesday
morning as the warm front lifts across the region. However, given
the availability elevated instability and approaching cold front
coming from the west thunderstorms that develop in parts of
western Minnesota could move eastward into a fairly favorable
environment for strong to severe storms. The most likely location
for this would be along the southern periphery of the CWA -
Brainerd Lakes to I-35 corridor, east into northwest Wisconsin
towards Hayward and Park Falls. The Storm Prediction Center has
placed the entire region within a Slight Risk for severe weather
due to the possibility of severe storms Tuesday night.

The cold front associated with the Canadian low will move east
into northwest Wisconsin Wednesday perhaps resulting in a round of
morning to early afternoon showers and storms before finally
exiting Wednesday evening. High pressure will build across the
region through the rest of the week resulting in seasonable
temperatures - highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

An area of high pressure will continue to move southeast through
the region tonight into Monday allowing surface winds to turn
southerly. The wind for most areas tonight will be light allowing
for fog to develop. Stratus and fog was already expanding across
portions of northern Wisconsin west toward KDLH. We expect this
trend to continue tonight with increasing IFR/LIFR conditions. The
fog will lift Monday morning with VFR conditions then prevailing
through the rest of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  74  57  77 /   0   0  10  40
INL  53  79  60  77 /   0   0  20  60
BRD  51  77  63  82 /   0   0  20  40
HYR  50  77  58  80 /   0   0   0  30
ASX  49  76  56  80 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...Melde



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