Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 201157
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
657 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

At 330 AM, skies were mostly cloudy across the Northland. Areas of
light rain were found in the far west and in northwest Wisconsin.
The area in between was generally dry at this point. Temperatures
ranged from the low to mid 50`s across the north to the lower 60s
across much of the south.

Low pressure is expected to strengthen as it lifts into Upper
Michigan by this evening, although not nearly as much as the NAM
had been advertising for several runs. A consensus solution has
the surface low moving into far eastern Lake Superior by this
evening. Winds will strengthen from the north as the central
pressure of the low drops into the 990 MB range. The NAM actually
drops it into the 980 MB range, but think that may be a bit too
strong. In terms of sensible weather, it looks to be a wet day
across the entire region, due to cyclogenesis and frontogenesis
across the Upper Midwest. Rainfall will likely be highest in
northwest Wisconsin, but widespread rain and isolated
thunderstorms look to be the rule across the entire CWA. With the
clouds and rainfall, temperatures will be held to the 60s for most
areas today.

The rain and clouds will gradually end from west to east and south
to north tonight, allowing high pressure to build into the Northland.
This should help us to salvage half of the weekend, as there
should be a good deal of sunshine on Sunday. It will still be a
bit breezy with highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Initially in the extended, high pressure will build into the central
Great Lakes. Minnesota will be on the western side of the high along
the return flow of southwesterly winds and strong WAA. Expect a warm
front to be in the vicinity of the International Border in Minnesota
on Monday extending from a low in southern Alberta. This may bring a
few showers/storms, but uncertain on how far southward the front
will extend. At the moment the NAM is the outlier with the front
bringing showers/storms to much of northern Minnesota, while the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM keep this activity farther north. Decided to keep low
POPs along the International Border with the front close by for
early Monday morning. Expect warmer temperatures on Monday with
readings ranging from the mid 70s to near 80.

Behind the exiting high pressure a trough will dig and deepen from
Alberta into Montana/Saskatchewan. In response to the height falls
ahead of the trough, an area of low pressure will develop in the
Northern Plains. This will lift another warm front into the
Northland per the latest GFS/GEM for Tuesday. Highs range from the
low to mid 80s. The trailing cold front associated with the system
will move through the CWA on Wednesday as the trough axis moves into
Minnesota. Shower chances will continue on Thursday and Friday with
a broad upper trough over the region. Will see a cooling trend in
temperatures from Wednesday heading into the weekend due to
northwest flow aloft. Readings will range from the upper 60s to low
70s from Thursday to Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 656 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Will see conditions deteriorate as the day progresses due to an
area of low pressure deepening and moving northeastward across
Wisconsin. Expect ceilings/visibilities to drop as the day
progresses to MVFR/IFR due to rain. Held off on LIFR conditions
as the latest guidance generally keeps ceilings/visibilities above
LIFR, but think that there may be a window of IFR ceilings at
KHYR between 18Z- 01Z. Expect gusty winds at all terminals due to
the pressure gradient tightening this afternoon as the low
deepens. May be too optimistic this evening/overnight with winds
decoupling at all terminals as the latest HRRR/NAM/GFS suggests.
Suspect with the strong low to the east it may still be gusty.

The low will exit the region late tonight and this will result in
conditions improving to VFR at all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  52  68  51 /  90  60  10  10
INL  66  41  70  51 /  60  10   0  20
BRD  66  49  70  55 /  60  10   0   0
HYR  64  51  67  50 / 100  70  10  10
ASX  65  56  69  52 / 100  90  10  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT
     Sunday for LSZ121-146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...WL



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