Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 290931
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
431 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALL PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WAA MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW AND COLD FRONT BRING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE
WEST. A SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE LLWS AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR. SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS PRECIP MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE STILL AN ISSUE WHERE
SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FAR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ARE THE MOST PRONE TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. KBRD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST.

WILL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT EXITS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  30  50  31 / 100  10  50  20
INL  45  28  50  30 /  80  10  50  30
BRD  47  31  59  33 /  70  10  30  10
HYR  46  29  52  30 /  90  10  30  20
ASX  47  31  52  29 / 100  10  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING





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