Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 010801 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
301 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

A SFC RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH NW WI AT
06Z. A CLEAR SKY COVERED THE FA. HOWEVER...WAA CI WAS ALREADY
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA. THIS CI WILL
DRIFT OVER THE MN FA THROUGH THE DAY WHILE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE FA THROUGH
THE DAY WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE 0C. AS A
RESULT...MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FA TONIGHT WHILE THE SW FLOW
CONTINUES FROM H85 TO THE SFC. THE WIND SPEED TONIGHT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT SETS UP NEAR SUNSET. WITH
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE...A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME
CI DRIFTING NEARBY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE FA ON SUNDAY. THE SW FLOW
CONTINUES UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. GOOD SHOT OF WAA ON SUNDAY WITH H85
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 5 TO 8C RANGE. COLUMN RH WILL BE AROUND 50
PERCENT SO CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...UPPER 30S OVER COOK COUNTY MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BREWING OUT OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES IN OUR DIRECTION
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING NORTHEAST UP INTO MANITOBA
AND INTO ONTARIO BY MONDAY EVENING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT
A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE UP ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HAVE PUT IN SOME CHANCE POPS IN
FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THESE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
FORECASTS AS MODEL CONSISTENCY IS INCREASING.  TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY TO BE FAIRLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
THEN...THEY WILL COOL OFF BEHIND THE FRONT TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40
TO THE UPPER 40S.  LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 30S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ALOFT.  A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE MODEL YOU LOOK AT...AND HAVE KEPT SOME SMALL
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING AT LEAST ONE DRY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...WITH
HIGHS DOWN IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.  THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES
IN TO AFFECT OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A WARM AIR
ADVECTION WING OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...WITH TIMING THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE.  ONCE AGAIN WE HAVE SOME SMALL POPS FOR BOTH
PERIODS...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. DEEP MIXING DURING THE DAY WILL ENCOURAGE GUSTY WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS AT MINNESOTA AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  28  44  34 /   0   0   0   0
INL  41  27  43  32 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  42  29  48  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  40  27  45  33 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  41  29  46  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...HUYCK






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