Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 141156 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014


.UPDATE...ISSUED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM IS PRECIP CHANCES TODAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN NE MN
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST. MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN A
TENTH OF RAIN. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH
OF MN. ALSO...805MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE +2 TO +4 RANGE TODAY AS
COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. DUE TO THIS
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AIR ALOFT AND THE LIFT FOR THE
SHORTWAVE...THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
MUCAPES WILL RISE TO THE 250-500 RANGE AND LI READING WILL FALL TO
THE +1 TO -1 RANGE. HAVE KEPT THE ISOLATED THUNDER IN FCST IN NW
WI AND HAVE EXTENDED THEM INTO NE MN AND THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA. WINDS WILL BE HIGH TODAY THAN YESTERDAY
WITH MIXING DOWN EXPECTED AS THE INSTABILITY INCREASES.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE QUESTION OF LOW TEMPS
WILL BE HOW SOON THE CLOUDS PUSH OUT AND THE EFFECT OF THE RIDGE
TAKES OVER. WILL HAVE LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S. IT IS A POSSIBILITY
UPPER 30S COULD BE SEEN IN SOME OF THE USUAL COLDER AREAS.
ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AND SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE ANOMALOUS UPPER
TROF ADVECTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. WEAK REMNANTS OF UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER
AIR PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A LIGHT WNW FLOW FRIDAY...AND INCREASING
SW FLOW SATURDAY. AT THE SFC A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY THE AXIS OF THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST ENOUGH TO INITIATE A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IN RESPONSE
TO BACKING MID LVL FLOW. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT AN
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS ACROSS NRN CWA IN RETURN FLOW
FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE
MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH A DRY SPELL FOR MOST OF THE CWA UNTIL
MORE DEFINITION ARRIVES REGARDING FORCING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
MODELS DO INCREASE CONSENSUS THAT AN APPROACHING TROF/SFC FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY SWEEP PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN WINDOW OF ASCENT APPEARS TO BE SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME THE PATTERN ALOFT DIVERGES
BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS SO CONFIDENCE DROPS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

INTENSE MID LVL LOW OVER NRN MN WILL MOVE TO KDLH BY 18Z AND SE OF CWA
BY 00Z. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTION MAY OCCUR OVER SERN CWA BUT ISOLATED IN
NATURE. CLOUD LAYERS A BIT CHAOTIC THROUGH THE DAY. OCCASIONAL VFR
MAY MATERIALIZE BUT GENERALLY AN MVFR CEILING FOR MOST AREAS.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER CIRCULATION EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN THE ERN CWA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  48  67  46 /  70  30  10   0
INL  63  47  69  40 /  60  10   0   0
BRD  64  50  70  48 /  50  10  10   0
HYR  60  48  69  42 /  70  40  10   0
ASX  60  48  65  40 /  70  40  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON






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