Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 220539
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1239 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

A weak cold front is located across northwest Wisconsin at mid
afternoon, and continuing to sag slowly southeastward. There is
not much of a temperature difference across the boundary, but
dewpoints drop by 10-12 degrees to the north of the boundary
across northern minnesota. As this weak front continues to
progress southeastward, the low chances of additional
thunderstorms will continue to drop, and the higher dewpoint air
will also finally be temporarily shunted off to the south of the
DLH CWA. As such, max heat indices have likely already been
reached across much of east central MN/northwest WI this
afternoon. However, with all of the storm clean up ongoing across
the region and lots of people doing highly intensive outdoor work,
in the interest of impacts, we will allow the heat advisory to run
its course until 9 PM this evening and let it naturally expire at
that time.

Weak high pressure will then be in control tonight and Friday
across the Northland. Temperatures will still reach the mid 80s to
lower 90s Friday, but with lower dewpoints and a west-northwest
breeze, it should feel less oppressive in many areas than the
past two days. We will have to monitor the strong
moisture/instability gradient just to our south tomorrow, however,
as if the models are too far south with the instability axis, the
threat of some isolated thunderstorms across our southern zones
will be higher than currently indicated.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

High pressure will keep the Northland clear and dry Friday night,
but there could be another round of severe weather Saturday and
Saturday night. Southerly return flow will bring hotter and more
humid air into the region...with precipitable water values
increasing to 1.5 to 2 inches. A shortwave trough will pass from
west to east during the peak heating of the afternoon and early
evening...likely bringing showers and thunderstorms. There could be
enough instability and deep layer wind shear to result in severe
thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds. Considering
the plentiful moisture, heavy rain and local flooding is possible.

A cold front, associated with a low in Canada, will then move
through the Northland from west to east Saturday night and Sunday.
There could be some showers and storms near and ahead of the front.

Drier air will works its way into the Northland Sunday in the wake
of the cold front. Daytime heating could result in showers and some
storms across northern Minnesota in the cooler west-northwest flow.
High pressure will likely keep the region clear and dry Monday.

The chances of showers and storms returns for the middle of next
week, but details are hard to determine because of the lack of model
agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Weak high pressure tonight into Friday will lead to mainly VFR
conditions. There may be some fog overnight that leads to patchy IFR
or MVFR conditions and we added a mention of fog to KHYR/kHIB.

Winds will become gusty in spots Friday afternoon as mixing deepens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  79  62  78 /   0  20  70  10
INL  59  82  62  76 /   0  20  70  40
BRD  66  84  66  80 /  10  60  70  10
HYR  61  86  66  81 /   0  30  70  20
ASX  61  80  62  80 /   0  10  70  30

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...miller
LONG TERM...grg
AVIATION...LE


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