Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 261749 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1249 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Please see the new 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 906 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Light rain was occurring from Itasca County through the Brainerd
Lakes and eastward through the St. Croix river valley, to
Phillips at 9am. There remains a sharp cut off between dry air and
the rain from near the Twin Ports, and along the south shore of
Lake Superior. Made some adjustments to pops and weather for these
trends. Removed the mention of snow as the lowest levels have
warmed well above the freezing mark.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Light rain/drizzle today as two areas of low pressure impact parts
of the Northland. Cool today due to the easterly flow developing as
a low deepens across the mid-Mississippi river valley today into
this evening. Becoming warmer Thursday as warmer southerly flow
results in some slightly warmer air being brought into the region.

Today light stratiform rain will gradually spread across northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as an elevated warm front begins
to weaken as it lifts into the Northland. A surface low is
developing across Iowa this morning and will lift towards the Ohio
River Valley tonight, supported by a mid-level shortwave trough
across the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes. Another mid-level
shortwave just behind this first one will lead to continued chances
for light rainfall Wed night, but mainly for the international
border. Warmer air finally moves in Thursday as a longwave ridge
over the Rockies builds eastward towards the Great Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Flow turns out of the south Thursday night as an area of low
pressure, associated with a 850hPa trough, translates east across
the Dakotas. An increasing southwesterly low level jet will allow
mid level temperatures to rapidly rise into the teens Celsius in the
warm sector ahead of the low. The low is on track to pass over
northern Minnesota Friday afternoon, lifting into Ontario by Friday
evening. At this time have kept precipitation chances mainly
confined to the Minnesota borderland and arrowhead zones as the bulk
of the instability and moisture will remain to the north of the
International Border with this system.

Canadian high pressure will build into the region Saturday in the
wake of the low. The cold air advection will bring clouds and enough
instability to support light rain showers Friday night into

The weather pattern repeats itself Sunday night as another low
tracks into the Dakotas, placing the forecast area in a warm return
flow into Monday. Rain returns to the forecast Monday as the low
translates across the borderland and into Ontario through Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Surface low pressure over eastern Iowa was supporting light rain
across much of Wisconsin and portions of northeast Minnesota this
afternoon. Expect the rain to gradually shift eastward and
diminish as the low moves toward southern Lake Michigan by early
evening. Mainly MVFR ceilings can be expected for the afternoon,
except over far northern Minnesota where VFR ceilings should
continue for several more hours. Ceilings will gradually lower
tonight with all sites seeing a period of IFR ceilings overnight.
Model output statistics and vertical profiles from the NAM and RAP
hint at the possibility of LIFR ceilings developing overnight, but
elected to keep SCT group for the lower ceiling potential for now.
A second area of low pressure will drop southeast out of
Saskatchewan overnight, which could result in another round of
showers overnight. Added VCSH mentions overnight with this
package, as confidence and timing with additional precipitation is
lower than average. Ceilings will gradually raise back into low-
end MVFR Thursday morning. Confidence in this forecast is above
average through 26.02Z and average thereafter.


DLH  41  37  48  41 /  60  10  10  10
INL  43  38  49  42 /  20  30  20  10
BRD  43  37  52  43 /  90  10  10   0
HYR  42  34  49  41 / 100  20  10   0
ASX  44  37  49  41 /  80  40  10  10


LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ142>147.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ140-141.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121-



LONG TERM...Graning
AVIATION...Huyck is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.