Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 312325 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
625 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN SFC LOW CENTER AT 19Z WAS LOCATED NEAR HCO IN NW MN. PREFRONTAL
TROF EXTENDED SW THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND APPEARS TO HAVE
JUST PASSED THROUGH BWP. ACTUAL COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED GFK AND
BAC IN ND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA AND HAS KEPT A STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. LATEST RUC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD
WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE FA. LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY TO
NEAR STC AT 19Z. LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY THAT THIS
LINE WAS PRODUCING A FEW HOURS AGO. GOOD SHOT OF WAA NOT ARRIVING
OVER THE FA AND HAS BEGUN TO TRANSLATE TO THE SFC AS WINDS BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH. MARINE LAYER EXTENDS FROM NEAR COQ TO THE TWIN
PORTS AND UP THE NORTH SHORE INLAND TO EASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY AT
19Z. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. REGARDLESS...HAVE POPS ACROSS THE
FA TONIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY STORMS INTO THE FA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL A QUESTION MARK ATTM AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. BY THEN...DIURNAL HEATING IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND MAY PLAY A ROLE IN FORMATION. WILL EAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF SEVERE WORDING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PROMINENT HOWEVER BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z PER LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS. THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS WILL
END BY 03Z AND THEN JUST TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND NOT EXPECTING ANY FLASH FLOODING
EVEN WITH THE SATURATED SOILS. HIGHEST QPF TOTALS WILL BE IN NW WI
WHERE SANDY SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE WATER. RIVER
LEVELS ARE LOW AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAIN EVENT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NW WI WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING FROM W TO E IN THE
AFTERNOON. GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE STORMS PERCOLATING
IN THE MORNING WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE E IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS
TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER
THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD HAS LOW CHANCES OF PCPN DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF ONE OR TWO SUBTLE TROUGHS. HOWEVER...WE MIGHT
BE ABLE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TO DRY WITH TIME. THE MODEL PCPN
MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY LITTLE AND PRIMARILY ONLY SHOWN BY THE GFS AND
GEM. THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH IN THE ECMWF...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRY.

MORE MOIST SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WHICH LOOKS STORMY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND/OR NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN...WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY
GETTING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND.

WHILE MUCH OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S...BUT COULD BE LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

THERE MIGHT BE LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY...OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD MVFR/VFR CIGS BETWEEN
2500 AND 4000 FT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...AND THERE WAS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. THE LINE OF STORMS WAS AFFECTING THE KINL AND KBRD
TERMINALS. THERE WAS ALSO A STORM SOUTH OF DULUTH AND MOVING
NORTH AND APPROACHING THE KDLH TERMINAL.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS
EVENING...AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE KHIB/KDLH/KHYR
AREAS. THE STORMS COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THERE THE
KHYR ARE HAS A LOW RISK OF SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...RAIN AND LOW CIGS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A TREND TOWARDS WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS FROM BR/FG. THE WINDS WILL BECOME VERY
LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP AID THE FORMATION OF BR/FG.

THE KHYR WILL SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR ISSUES EARLY
TONIGHT DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WINDS ALOFT
BELOW 2 KFT AND WEAK WIND NEAR THE SURFACE.

WEST TO WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP
LIFT AND SCATTER THE LOW CIGS. MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE VFR
CIGS DEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. THE RAIN AND LOW CIGS WILL
LIKELY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  70  53  73 /  70  30  20  30
INL  56  69  48  73 /  50  20  20  30
BRD  60  72  53  76 /  30  10  20  20
HYR  64  72  52  75 /  90  40  10  20
ASX  64  73  53  75 /  90  40  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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