Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 210022
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
622 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

AT 330 PM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. ANY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WERE QUICKLY FALLING APART. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ARROWHEAD TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND. HAVE CUT TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
BASED ON CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WIND. THINK TEMPS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO FALL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...ESPECIALLY IN NW WI
WHERE THEY WILL BE NEARER THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST. WAA
WILL ALREADY PUSH INTO THE CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE NE MN SIDE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPS
CLOSELY THOUGH AS WE MAY DROP EVEN FURTHER THAN THAT IN SPOTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY...AS
STRONG WAA PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
THE WAA COULD RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NW WI. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS ACROSS THIS
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THROUGH THE PERIOD WE ARE WATCHING THE PHASING OF THE NORTH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND THE RESULTANT LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON SATURDAY THE RETREATING SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW OF
VERY WARM AIR WITH 8H TEMPS TEMP FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADDITION TO A
STRONG S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN SECTIONS....THE ARROWHEAD AND
WI...BUT...AS THE SYSTEM NEARS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW ZERO WHICH WILL RESULT IN FREEZING
RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.  BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DEFINITE ICE IN THE COLUMN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA FROM ABOUT
WALKER TO INL...WHERE PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN SNOW OVR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST...AND VERY COLD
AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW...AND WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
THE RAIN INTO SNOW.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING EAST WITH THE SFC
LOW...THE GFS MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE EURO. THIS SYSTEM WILL
STILL BEAR WATCHING.

MUCH COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST
WINDS...MEANING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE WILL KICK IN AND
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. LATEST
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING....BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 18Z.
HAVE INTRODUCED A SCT/BKN LAYER BELOW 3 KFT TO CONVEY THIS TREND.
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE THERE IS ALSO A SMALL THREAT FOR VERY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE KBRD AREA. HAVE LEFT OUT OF
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME AND WILL RE-ASSES THE THREAT FOR THE NEXT
TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -1  21  20  36 /   0   0  10  10
INL  -8  24  21  35 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  -3  25  24  35 /   0   0  10  10
HYR -11  24  21  37 /  10   0  10  10
ASX  -4  26  22  39 /  30   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GRANING






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