Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 190533
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1133 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST VIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED H50 TROUGH/VORT
MAX TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT OVER NW
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...ROTATING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE POSITIONED IN A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES TO MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. THE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE WILL INTRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT FZDZ
FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SATURATED LAYER DEEPENING TO 6 KFT AND
CLOUDS TOP TEMPS AROUND -5C. HAVE INCLUDED -FZDZ WITH FLURRIES IN
THE SW ZONES...BRAINERD/WALKER AREA...FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL START TO IMPACT THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

A POWERFUL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CONUS/SOUTHERN BC REGION THIS
WEEKEND...THEN MOVE EAST BEFORE DIVING SOUTH AND CARVING OUT A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
OCCURS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST EC/GFS HAVE THE LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWEST MN OR NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER AT 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIVERGE
AFTER THAT FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AGAIN. BESIDE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER/SURFACE LOWS...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION AFFECTING TRAVEL
TRAVEL....ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS JUST TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY. THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AFTER
THIS STORM PASSES THROUGH AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. STAY
TUNED TO LATER DISCUSSIONS/FORECASTS AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

PRIOR TO THE LARGER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION LOW POPS FOR MEASURABLE SNOW OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH. WE DID ADD A MENTION
OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE ABOVE THE LOW LEVELS. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OR TWO WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL
WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME FOG
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CIGS WITH PERIODIC FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION IS SOME IFR CIGS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM 06Z THROUGH 11Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  27  22  29 /  10  10  20  10
INL  13  26  20  28 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  16  28  23  30 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  12  28  21  30 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  15  29  21  31 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GSF





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