Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 150522
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1222 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Updated for the new 06Z Aviation Discussion below.



UPDATE Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Upper trof was into the western edge of the forecast area with
light to moderate rain still occurring ahead of the trof. The
latest short term models indicate about two hours of snow still
possible over the higher elevations of Lake and Cook counties
overnight. Have lowered snow amounts to less than a half inch
based on this info. Made some other adjustments.

UPDATE Issued at 715 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Light rain or drizzle was affecting the area northwest of U.S.
Highway 169 in northeast Minnesota at 7 pm. Light to moderate rain
was occurring south of Highway 210 in Minnesota and south of U.S.
Highway 2 in northwest Wisconsin. Rainfall amounts have been
fairly light so far. Cass Lake, MN had the highest report of 0.16
inches of rain. An area of no rain was found north of Highway 210
and east of Highway 169. This is due to the dry air advecting in
from Lake Superior and leftover dry air from the departing high
pressure. The rain was falling in an area of enhanced FGEN,
especially in the 850-700mb layer. Much of the forecast is on
track, but the latest short term models have come in with a bit
warmer boundary layer overnight. This would lead to less snow
occurring. Have made some adjustments in this regard. Still
expecting around 1 inch of snow in the grassy, elevated areas of
Lake and Cook counties with a tenth of an inch possible over lower
elevations, and into St. Louis and Carlton counties.
Precipitation is still on track to end from west to east overnight
in northeast Minnesota, and Sunday morning over northwest
Wisconsin.

UPDATE Issued at 657 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Updated below for 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Surface low pressure in the Central Plains will deepen over Iowa
this evening then continue northeast through Michigan toward Lake
Huron by 12Z Sunday. The low will then continue to pull away from
the region Sunday. An upper level trough will be moving east through
Minnesota into Wisconsin tonight with a weaker shortwave moving
through the Northland on Sunday. An area of strong FGEN forcing will
develop tonight and lift north into parts of northern Wisconsin and
Minnesota. Latest radar was showing an area of increasing echoes
from western Minnesota into north central Minnesota in line with the
developing FGEN. Temperatures this afternoon were in the upper
forties to middle fifties. Rain will increase in coverage across
much of the region through the evening becoming widespread for most
areas. The airmass will cool overnight due to cold air advection and
dynamic and evaporative cooling processes. The rain will mix with or
change over to snow by late evening over portions of northern
Minnesota, mainly north of Highway 2 then progressing southeast
toward Aitkin, the Twin Ports, and Moose Lake areas by late tonight
and even parts of northern Wisconsin around sunrise. The best chance
for light accumulation will be over northeast Minnesota with parts
of the Arrowhead receiving around an inch.

Mainly light rain will continue early Sunday morning over northern
Wisconsin with chances highest across northern Ashland/Iron Counties
where there will be lake processes ongoing. A weaker shortwave will
be moving through in northwest flow aloft. Skies will turn
partly/mostly sunny for a time but clouds will then be on the
increase from west to east with the wave. There may be enough
forcing for some light rain over parts of northern Minnesota but any
rain amounts should be light. We expect highs from the upper forties
to lower fifties, warmest in northwest Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

An upper-level ridge over the western Great Lakes will move
eastward out of the region Sunday night with rising heights and
surface high pressure building. In the wake of the trough a quasi-
zonal flow pattern will establish and persist through the week.
Several shortwaves will cruise through the Canadian Prairies but
should only result in an increase in cloud cover over the
Northland. Temperatures will trend gradually warmer through
Friday. Above to much above temperatures are expected with highs
in the 50s on Monday rising to the low 60s to near 70 degrees by
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

As the area of low pressure pulls off to the east, the rain will
diminish across the terminals. A gradual clearing trend follows. A
mix of MVFR and VFR cigs is expected prior to the clearing. A
period of IFR is possible at HYR. An improvement to VFR at all
locations is expected through the rest of the forecast. By
afternoon, an upper level trof will cross over the terminals. A
few showers are possible, but differences in timing and coverage
from the models precludes nothing more than a VCSH mention.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  48  34  56 /  80  10  10   0
INL  27  48  29  57 /  50  20  10   0
BRD  35  50  33  59 /  80  10   0   0
HYR  40  52  32  57 / 100  30  10   0
ASX  38  52  35  58 / 100  40  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Gale Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-145>148.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>144.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this
     afternoon for LSZ148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...GSF



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