000
FXUS63 KDLH 042124
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
324 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

THE NORTHLAND IS IN BETWEEN TWO WEAK SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON..WITH
ONLY THIN/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH ARE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE WEST
AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF THE CWA. RESULTANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER ALBEDO
EFFECTS OF THE FORESTED AREAS IN NE MN/NW WI HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
CLIMB TO NEAR 20 ABOVE IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY SEEMS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
PAST 36 HOURS..ALBEIT WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT WARMING TREND ON
TEMPS - I.E. STILL WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT..BUT NOT AS COLD AS TUE
MORNING..AND INTO THE LOWER-MID 20S WED.

FOR TONIGHT..WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SEWD ALONG THE I94
CORRIDOR TONIGHT..BUT LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR AND SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE
DULUTH CWA. AS A RESULT WE HAVE MOSTLY REMOVED THE MENTION OF LOW
POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. OTHERWISE..ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS NEARLY
OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE AIRMASS HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY MODIFY FROM
EXCEPTIONAL COLD OVER THE WEEKEND..BUT CONDITIONS TONIGHT SHOULD
STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP EXTREMELY RAPIDLY TO BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS BY 9-10 PM. WE HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST OF GUIDANCE
FOR TONIGHT IN MANY AREAS..AND MANY OF THE FAVORED LOCATIONS
AROUND CRANE LAKE/EMBARRASS-TOWER/LONGVILLE/HIBBING STILL SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MAKE A RUN AT -20F OR COLDER TONIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY..SIMILAR TO TODAY..STRONG MARCH SUN SHOULD ALLOW A
VERY RAPID WARM UP IN THE MORNING..WITH TEMPS LIKELY JUMPING 25 TO 35
DEGREES BETWEEN MORNING LOWS BETWEEN 7/8 AM AND 10 AM. APPROACHING
STRONGER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE TRAVERSING SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA WILL HAVE INCREASING INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHLAND BY
AFTERNOON..WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTH
WINDS..ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS. FOR NOW WE HAVE HELD ON
TO LOW POPS IN THE FAR NW FOR WED AFTERNOON..BUT IT APPEARS THAT
PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SOMETIME WED NIGHT OR THUR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

THE FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AND
ITS TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SSW
TO SW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS
SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER...THE
THREAT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SLEET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING...THEN THE REST
OF THE NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE STEADY OR RISING TEMPERATURES AS THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER RAMPS UP. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE INTO UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S THURSDAY...WARMTH THAT
THE NORTHLAND HAS NOT SEEN FOR A WHILE. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PCPN WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW...BUT THAT A LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 850 HPA WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE SW FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SLEET. HOWEVER...I KEPT
THE FORECAST AS SNOW AT THIS POINT FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...AS WELL DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT OF PCPN. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE OTHER MODELS...MEANING THE SW FORECAST COULD SEE LITTLE IF ANY
PCPN. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING ITS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THIS COLD
FRONT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ABOUT A
HALF TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TO MUCH OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
WOULD LIKELY BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF THE ARROWHEAD DUE TO
TERRAIN AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM PERIODS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON SATURDAY...BUT TEMPERATES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...MAYBE BRING LIGHT SNOW AND/OR A WINTRY
MIXTURE OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS BROUGHT
OVC/BKN CLOUD COVER AROUND 6 TO 12 KFT TO THE KBRD/KDLH/KHYR
AREAS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL THE
CLOUD COVER EXITS BEGIN THIS EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGERING INTO TONIGHT...BUT THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
THEREFORE...I MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS...BUT I WILL BE MONITORING
FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS.

THE VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EASTERLY
TONIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  17   4  27 /  10  10  30  40
INL -17  20   8  29 /  10  30  50  70
BRD  -6  23  11  31 /  10  10  30  20
HYR  -8  23   2  28 /  10   0   0  20
ASX -11  18   3  29 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI