Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 292152
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
352 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WERE FOUND LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE MINNESOTA SITES...AND MOVING INTO HYR LATER TODAY. VSBYS
AT HIB SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MARGINALLY DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SNOW DIMINISHES. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
CONDITIONS AS THE DRIER AIR REPLACES THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BY
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE CLEARING AND DRY AIR MAY BE
OVERDONE...AND MVFR BKN CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STILL...CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVING CIGS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AS
A PREVAILING CONDITION. WINDS WILL BACK WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE.
MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW LATER IN THE
MORNING BRINGING HIGH BKN AND OVC CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON /BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD/.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /   0  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /   0  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK





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