Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 310838
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
338 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES ACROSS NORTH
AGAIN

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND...ARROWHEAD... AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SHOWERS THAT
MOVED ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAVE MOVED INTO
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WILL BE SIMILAR
TO THURSDAY AND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH SMALL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW RW-
IN WESTERN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA MOVING SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVES. WILL HAVE LOW POPS FOR RW-/TRW- ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND AND THE ARROWHEAD REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY...THE SHEAR IS LESS AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
LESS INSTABILITY. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD STAY
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TOWARD SUNSET THIS EVENING AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR BY LATE EVENING. SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY KEEPING THE
AREA RAINFREE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE AT THEIR
NORMAL LEVELS AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE QUASI STATIONARY LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
IN A REGION OF UNSTABLE CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH FALLING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

LATEST ECM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AIR MASS WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS DRIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO AND SINKS INTO THE
BORDERLAND/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...REMAINING OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BRING A COOLING AND DRYING TREND NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. THIS IS ON THE ORDER OF 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. THE COOL AIR
ALOFT WILL ALSO PROMOTE STEEP LAPSE RATES. HAVE TRENDED DEW
POINTS/RH VALUES LOWER THAN SUPERBLEND/BLENDED GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG MIXING DAYS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS THE LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS REACH
THE 5 TO 6 KFT RANGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PWAT
VALUES FALL INTO THE 0.5 TO 0.75" RANGE ALONG THE BORDERLAND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY PERIODIC RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH
LONG RANGE AS SEVERAL FAST MOVING SMALL WAVES ROTATE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AND THE TIMING OF THESE
WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...A WAVE WITH A WEAK
SFC REFLECTION BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN
CONCERN THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AT THE
TERMINALS IF SUSTAINED SPEEDS DROP MUCH BELOW 10 KTS. THERE IS A
NORTHWEST WIND OF APPROXIMATELY 30KTS AT 2KFT ALOFT...MAKING
THINGS MARGINAL FOR LLWS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 10Z BEFORE THE
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. FRIDAY AFTER 15Z
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15KTS AND GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE...EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD THIS
TIME. THESE SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM ALL BUT KINL AND KHIB...WHERE
HAVE PUT A VCTS GROUP FOR NOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  58  79  59 /  10  10  10  10
INL  74  50  78  51 /  20  20  10  20
BRD  79  55  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  78  53  79  55 /  10  10  10  20
ASX  77  56  79  57 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE


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