Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 181722
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
Issued by National Weather Service TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1122 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Updated to include 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

A fast moving shortwave that is moving across the forecast area
early this morning will continue southeast through this morning.
This shortwave is bringing light snow to areas around the Northwest
Angle as of 2 AM, with temperatures in the 30-34 range. Earlier
there was some rain reported, but temperatures were 34 or warmer.
Expect a few sites are getting a mix, but it should change to snow
as wetbulb effects kick in as dewpoints are in the 20s.  On the back
side of this system as the precipitation moves out, there may be a
brief period of freezing drizzle as there is a short period of
lingering low level moisture as the higher levels dry out.  Do not
expect much of an impact with it as it will happen for only a short
time range at any one location and there is not much moisture
available. Also, would prefer to see lower visibilities associated
with it if we were going to get more than a trace, which I do not
see upstream.  This afternoon this shortwave moves off to the east
quickly and allows cloud cover to decrease.  Have stayed fairly
close to guidance for highs, rising into the low to mid 30s. Tonight
remains quiet and mild with the forecast area in a warm air
advection pattern.  The melting that occurs today may produce some
fog tonight, but location and timing are pretty uncertain and have
left out for now.  Friday the warm air advection pattern continues
initially, followed by a cold front in the afternoon as a low
pressure system moves out of Manitoba into Ontario.  Despite the
melting that will have been going on do not expect much in the way
of low cloud cover or precipitation as there is not much moisture
moving in from the south, our only moisture source being melting
snow.  Temperatures get even warmer than today, with highs in the
mid and upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

The Northland will end the week with another mild day. Expect light
westerly winds and temperatures in the low to middle 30s on Saturday.

The focus of the forecast is on a potential winter storm early next
week. The GFS, European, and Canadian have been fairly consistently
indicating a Colorado Low lifting into the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes region during the Sunday through Monday timeframe since at
least this past Saturday. The latest 00Z models have continued that
trend. This low will likely bring snow to the region, possibly heavy
snow, but it`s just a matter of where. There have been fluctuations
in the projected path of the low, and that is to be expected this
far out since the main wave which will cause this storm is still
well off in the Pacific Ocean (and not within the air balloon
network on the continent). At this point, all we can say is that
there is steadily increasing confidence that the parts of Northland
could get snow of at least 1 inch sometime Sunday through Monday
evening. The best chances for snow currently include east-central
Minnesota, the Minnesota North Shore, and northwest Wisconsin. This
storm could bring heavy snow to parts of the region, so stay tuned
for more updates.

Temperatures will dip back below normal early next week in the wake
of the storm system. Highs will be in the teens for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

With the exception of some MVFR (marginal IFR) at the start of the
period, we should generally see improvement this afternoon as the
surface frontal boundary pushes east and we get into some
subsidence in the wake of the shortwave evident in water vapor
imagery over Lake Superior. Through the remainder of the period we
will see some increase in mid/high clouds which are spilling down
the east side of the upper ridge centered from Saskatchewan south
into the desert southwest. Some MVFR fog and perhaps scattered low
clouds can be expected at most locations tonight given the
increase in boundary layer moisture owing to the warmer
temperatures and melting that is occurring. Main uncertainty is
with how long current low clouds will linger this afternoon and
whether visibilities will be lower than expected overnight (and if
we`ll see any low ceilings develop).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  22  36  25 /  30   0  10   0
INL  32  19  38  22 /  30  10  20   0
BRD  35  21  38  23 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  34  21  39  24 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  34  23  40  27 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...


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