Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 021750
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE OF CONCERN TODAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET EARLY TODAY. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVER THE ARROWHEAD TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL
EXIST OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE NORTH OF TWO
HARBORS.

CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE TONIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
THE 50S. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AGAIN...BUT
POSSIBLY DEVELOP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE BORDERLAND REGION. THE SFC FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER S/W WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AND COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND A PUSH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE BL CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD AMTS AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TO KEEP
THINGS QUIET FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... HOPEFULLY
ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...TO THE
LOW 80S TOWARDS BRAINERD.

OUR NEXT WEATHERMAKER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HAVE HAD SOME CONCERNS FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST SHEAR
WILL BE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING...SLOWING MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDER HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR THIS TAF SET. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF THERE IS
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  59  76  56 /  20  20  50  10
INL  80  58  77  51 /  20  50  20   0
BRD  77  56  80  56 /  10  20  40  10
HYR  76  55  77  55 /  10  10  30  30
ASX  77  58  77  55 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING



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