Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 151146

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
546 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

A ridge of cold high pressure is settling into the forecast area
this morning on the heels of yesterday`s cold front passage.  Due to
dry air, we have seen less lake effect snow, and it appears to be
limited to just the portions fringes of Iron county, as seen
satellite imagery this morning that shows only eastern Iron county
affected by low clouds and only KIWD reporting light snow. Because
of this have backed off on snow forecast for the south shore, with
little additional lake effect expected to develop with all the dry
air today.  Aloft, the strong jet diving out of the Northwest
Territories is bringing an area of cirrus down across the forecast
area, which should continue through much of today.  Highs today to
get into the high teens and 20s for most locations, but probably the
coldest day of this work week.  Tonight with the surface ridge
beginning to shift east of the forecast area we should have a wave
of warm air advection move across the area tonight and tomorrow.
This is likely to bring additional cloud cover through the period,
but with low level moisture lacking have kept all pops out of the
forecast.  Some high resolution models are generating showers both
periods, but are inconsistent enough in timing and position have
left them out of the forecast for now.  Thursday to begin our
warming trend in high temperatures, with the warm air advection
going on aloft.  Highs Thursday get into the mid 20s and 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Upper level ridging will start to impact the Northland starting
Thursday night, with the upper level ridge remaining dominant into
the first part of the weekend. The result will be dry weather, along
with temperatures much above normal for this time of year. Heights
will gradually build Thursday night, as the ridge moves directly
over Minnesota by 12Z Friday. The upper level ridge will move off to
the east and flatten by 12Z Saturday, as a shortwave moves along the
international border region for the weekend. While we can`t rule out
a few showers with the passage of a weak front and shortwave, it
looks like it should be dry with passage of those features. The H5
ridge will build again behind the departing shortwave, with building
heights into Sunday night. The forecast beyond this weekend is
becoming a bit less certain. Yesterday at this time, the GFS and
ECMWF were in pretty good agreement concerning the development of a
major system for the first part of the work week. The GFS has
changed considerably and would now bring much less precipitation
than the ECMWF. The GFS appears to hint at the development of more
substantial precipitation in the Central Plains, which could affect
our area by intercepting a good deal of the moisture. With such
differences this far out, will continue with generally high POP`s,
but pull back a little. Temperatures throughout the long term period
will be one of the big stories, as high temperatures reach the 40s
for much of the long term period. These temperatures are some 20
degrees above normal for this time of year.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 544 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

High pressure will build into the Northland today, but northerly
flow could bring some areas of mid clouds into the region. Think
generally broken mid clouds are on tap for today, followed by
scattered clouds overnight. Overall, it looks like VFR for all TAF
sites today.


DLH  24  16  31  24 /  10   0   0   0
INL  22  13  33  24 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  29  20  38  27 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  25  16  34  23 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  25  15  33  24 /  10  10   0   0




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