Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 191723
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1223 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY...BUT DRIER
AIR AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE
CLOUDS THAT COVERED MOST AREAS AS OF 0730Z AND KEEP MOST AREAS DRY
TODAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER
THIS DECK OF STRATOCU AND THAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL IT CLEARS. MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SNOWBELT REGION OF
ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES. A SPOTTER IN GILE REPORTED SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION SHORTLY AFTER 05Z AND WEBCAMS AROUND IRONWOOD ALSO
SHOW SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. SHIP AND BUOY OBS INDICATE THE LAKE
IS AROUND 2 TO 4C AND WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C THIS
MORNING...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING AS TEMPS
WARM AND DRIER AIR CONTINUE TO MOVES IN. WE FOLLOWED THE RAP/NAM
ON CLEARING TODAY AND WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE FIFTIES FOR MOST AREAS.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH AND WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST AREAS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH
SOME LOCALIZED AREAS INTO THE LOWER TWENTIES.

WE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SIXTIES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
JUST BE NEARING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

QUIET PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES.  MODELS SHOW A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST REGION EARLY THURSDAY BUT ONLY CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN WITH
THIS SYSTEM.  THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SWITCH AROUND TO A S-SW FLOW
BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  THE
MODELS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.  THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  MODELS DO SHOW
SOME INCREASE INSTABILITY...SO WILL HAVE ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

EXPECT PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT... AND WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OUT OF THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  34  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
INL  55  26  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  56  31  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  54  27  64  38 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  52  32  62  38 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...MCLOVIN






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