Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 132059

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
259 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Focus for short term is flurries tonight and warming trend
beginning this weekend.

Curent surface analysis indicate clouds covering most of the NE MN
forecast area and NW Wi half covered. Some flurries have been
reported out of the clouds so some will put into the grids this
evening. The better news is warm air advection has developed and
will cause warmer temperatures to push into the forecast region.
This trend will continue into next week.

Temperatures overnight will not fall much from current readings
due to cloud cover.Lows tonight will only be in the single figures
below zero with highs Saturday in the middle to upper teens.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

The extended forecast period begins with dry and quiet conditions
Sunday through early Monday morning as sfc high pressure translates
across southern MN Sunday morning. Low level winds from the west
will turn to more of a southwesterly direction, which will enhance
thermal advection, taking temperatures to near normal and above
normal values. Highs Sunday will be in the lower to mid 20s across
the Northland.

As the high pressure departs, an area of low pressure develops over
the TX/OK Panhandle region and translates through the region Monday
and Tuesday. This system will have plenty of support in the upper
levels as 250 mb divergence will accompany the upper level low. In
addition, a secondary mid-level shortwave looks to move out of
Canada and intersects the previously mentioned system over the
region. This should provide good support with two shortwaves in the
region, yet the model soundings disagree on the magnitude of
isentropic lift, with the 13.12z GFS going much stronger lift than
the corresponding NAM. The better lift appears to be more favorable
over NW WI due to the proximity of the first-mentioned shortwave,
along with better moisture and thermal advection. Latest guidance is
still unclear on precipitation types as the new GFS is now going all
snow across the Northland, which is a much different solution from
yesterday`s corresponding guidance. The NAM/ECMWF/CMC are still
indicating possible wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, snow, and
rain across NW WI, so will go with these solutions for this forecast
package. These chances of precipitation should continue through the
day Tuesday, coming to an end Tuesday evening as the system departs.

Wednesday through Friday morning looks dry at this time as mid-level
ridging builds into the region. GFS model soundings are indicating a
fairly dry column throughout this period, so no mentions of any
precipitation. However, the bigger story for this period will be
increasing temperatures as low level warm air advection strengthens
along the ridge. The GFS and ECMWF are progging 925 mb temperatures
to increase to near zero, and even a few degrees above zero
Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday, the consensus blends are giving
highs into the mid to upper 30s, and perhaps even some 40s in NW WI


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

VFR conditions to continue throughout the TAF period. There is a
passing shortwave moving across Saskatchewan and Manitoba Canada
this afternoon with an associated warm front aloft pushing through
the region. This is expected to bring mainly a SCT to BKN cloud
deck over the TAF sites this afternoon, but upstream observations
indicate VFR cigs between 7-9 kft. Skies should be SKC before the
arrival of the stratus deck.

As the warm air aloft moves in, behind it should be increasing 850
mb level winds this evening and overnight, which are expected to
support LLWS from the southwesterly direction with shear values
between 35 and 45 knots. However, this is expected to only affect
the TAF sites from Duluth and northward.


DLH  -3  16   1  22 /  10   0   0   0
INL  -4  13  -3  25 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  -4  18  -3  25 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  -3  19  -7  23 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  -1  20   2  27 /  10   0   0   0


LS...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Saturday
     for LSZ121-146>148.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Saturday for LSZ141>144.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday
     for LSZ140.



SHORT TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...JTS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.