Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KLSX 021748
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1248 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
IOWA IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A
30KT LOW LEVEL JET.  RAP SHOWS THAT THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  WILL KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THIS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MIXING DOWN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE AREA AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT WILL REMAINED STALLED MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVER THE STALLED FRONT DURING THIS PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY PROVIDING A DRY DAY.  WENT
WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KUIN, KCOU: WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
UNTIL AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT, THEN
TURN NORTHERLY AFTER FROPA OCCURS (17-21Z AT KCOU AND 10-14Z AT
KUIN). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER PCPN CHANCES ARE HIGHER TOMORROW AFTN AT KCOU INVOF THE
COLD FRONT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AFTER 03/06Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WESTERLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY AFTER FROPA OCCURS BETWEEN 17-21Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER PCPN CHANCES
ARE HIGHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON INVOF THE COLD FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.