Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 211807

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
107 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

With temps dipping into the mid to upper 30s over northeast Missouri
and west central Illinois, will keep frost advisory going til 8 am.
Otherwise, surface ridge to build into the region today with sunny
skies and light winds. Will only see highs in the 55 to 60 degree

Even though surface ridge to begin moving off to the east late
tonight with winds becoming southerly, temps will still dip into the
upper 30s to low 40s. Southerly winds will pickup a bit more on
Saturday with highs near normal in the low 60s far east to around 70
over central Missouri.


.LONG TERM...  (Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Continued quiet weather is expected thru the remainder of the
weekend into next week. Mdls are in good agreement thru the weekend
with height rises across the area and sfc ridge across the srn U.S.
This will prevent much in the way of moisture return ahead of the
approaching cdfnt on Sun. A dry fropa is expected on Sun with cooler
temps on Mon. With good agreement in timing and thermal profile
ahead of the fnt, raised temps for Sun twd the warmer guidance.

Not much going on thru the extd, however, a system on Wed will need
to be monitored. Mdls are in fairly good agreement regarding timing
and have increased PoPs to account for this agreement. It is still
quite early, but temps Thurs night may need to be lowered if mdls
continue to agree with the sfc ridge building into the region.



.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

VFR flight conditions will prevail across the area through
Saturday. High pressure ridge axis over central Missouri will
shift southeast tonight into Saturday morning. This will cause the
wind to shift from the north-northwest this afternoon to the
south-southwest Saturday morning. Think some steam fog along the
major rivers is likely late tonight as well which will locally
bring the visibility down to IFR. Any river fog that develops
should dissipate quickly after sunrise.


VFR flight conditions will continue to prevail at Lambert through
Saturday. Wind will shift from the north-northwest to the south by
Saturday morning as the ridge axis moves east of the area.





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