Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 010847
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
347 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MO AHEAD OF A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE, AND IN A REGION
OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ON THE NOSE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS ALSO RAMP UP
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL MO BY 12Z THIS MORNING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE STRONGEST AND MOST WIDEPREAD CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MO THIS MORNING. THE FIRST WAVE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY NOON,
BUT MORE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL MO AND DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MO. THIS SECOND, MORE SOUTHERN AREA
OF CONVECTION MAY BE SEVERE AND ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM
TODAY COMPARED TO TUESDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ANOTHER MCS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MO INTO SOUTHWEST IL. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MO
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MO UNTIL 12Z THURSDAY. THE STRONGER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS
FURTHER SOUTH AS THE SURFACE WAVE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IL ON THURSDAY, AND MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY
RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRIER ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IL, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION SHOULD RAMP UP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION. THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SLOW WITH ONLY A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FORECAST.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:NONE
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-
     JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-MONTGOMERY MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST.
     FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY
     MO-COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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