Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 251637
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1137 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...RESULTING IN NW FLOW ALOFT
FOR OUR REGION.  A LARGE 1020MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A LIGHT NW FLOW FOR OUR
REGION.  SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES AT
MOST LOCALES BETWEEN 55 AND 60.

NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN FORCE THRU TODAY...AND WITH NO SOURCES OF LIFT SUCH AS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTS...THE CURRENT DRY
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE MAINTAINED.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH MAX TEMPS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80...CLOSELY FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NOT MANY CHANGES FROM 24 HRS AGO. SFC RIDGE IS PROGD TO STAY IN
PLACE THRU THURS. WITH GOOD MDL AGREEMENT...HAVE CONTINUED A
PERSISTENCE TREND.

FOCUS TURNS TO PRECIP CHANCES LATE THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TIMING...THO TIMING AMONG GUIDANCE DIFFERS
SLIGHTLY. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE PROGD TO WASH OUT OVER THE REGION.
HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THRU SAT AS THE FNT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.
POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED INTO NEXT WEEK IF FNT CONTINUES TO BE FCST
TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

LARGE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MN SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD THIS PERIOD. LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. NWLY SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LIGHT LATER THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH COULD IMPACT SUS AND CPS...
BUT WILL LIKELY LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS THIS PERIOD...MAY BE
A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS A FEW
CIRRUS CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
THIS EVENING...THEN ONLY PICK UP TO AROUND 7 KTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FROM A N-NWLY DIRECTION.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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