Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 241028
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
528 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

OUR REGION IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO AND THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN NW FLOW ALOFT.  A LARGE 1020MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATED THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
LIGHT NW FLOW FOR OUR REGION.  SATELLITE SHOWED CLEAR SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN FORCE THRU TODAY...MAINTAINING A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN THRU THE
DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH MAX TEMPS
PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...CLOSELY FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

SFC RIDGE IS PROGD TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN THRU THURS
AS UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS IN PLACE. MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THRU THURS WRT BOTH MASS FIELDS AND THERMAL PROFILES.

FOR TEMPS...HAVE FOLLOWED MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND TWD LATE WEEK. WITH COOL DEWPOINTS PROGD...HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED COOL TREND AOB COOLEST GUIDANCE WITH LIGHT WIND AND A
CLEAR SKY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

DIFFERENCES AMONG MDL GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND
WITH DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.


TILLY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS...DRY WEATHER...AND NW SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TOWARDS MIDDAY
AND CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
AT UIN.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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