Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 221741 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1241 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS HAS MOVED E
OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH NOON...BUT ENDING
FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

POWERFUL SHORT WAVE TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WERE MOVING
THROUGH NW MN AT 08Z AND HEADED INTO NE MN. THIS IS DRIVING THE MCS
THAT WAS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA AT 08Z. AS THIS FEATURE
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REST OF NE MN THIS MORNING...IT WILL GLANCE
NW WI. HAVE TIMED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SPEED AND MOVEMENT OF THE
TROF/VORT MAX/MCS THROUGH THE FA. THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL EXIT THE
FA BY 18Z TODAY. HAVE A SMALL POP OVER THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH 19Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING BACKWASH FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...SFC RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY...HUMIDITIES WILL DROP AND
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SEASONAL NORMAL RANGE.

THE SFC RIDING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE FA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP MIN AND MAX TEMPS IN THE SEASONAL RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
AND COOLER WEATHER.

THE MODELS INDICATE A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH AND
CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE UPPER LOW AND ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION COULD SWING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AND BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA HAD RETURNED TO VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
ONTARIO. THERE WAS ONLY LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD...AND ALSO OVER PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE
KHYR AREA. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD GUSTY NW TO NNW WINDS.

THERE WILL GRADUAL SCATTERING AND CLEARING OF THE CIGS AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE
KHYR AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...BECOMING LIGHT BY LATER THIS
EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  57  74  45 /  30  10   0   0
INL  77  53  76  45 /  20   0   0   0
BRD  81  58  78  52 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  82  57  76  44 /  20   0   0   0
ASX  79  55  72  44 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ144>147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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