Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 242039
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
339 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

DOUBLE-BARRELED LOW PRESSURE TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE THE MAIN CONCERN. NORTHERN
LOW WAS OVER CENTRAL ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SRN SECTION
ENTERING SRN MO. BOTH LOWS WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE UPPER
TROF...BUT THE SRN LOW WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER IL
AND LOWER MI. AND THE NORTHERN LOW WILL CRUISE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PRECIPITATION HAS BROKEN OUT ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN THE LOW WITH RAIN TO THE SOUTH OVER MN AND
IOWA AND SNOW OVER THE OTHER IN NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THE AREA OF
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC LEVEL SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST OVER MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
GOOD SNOWFALL RATES WITH THE NEGATIVE OMEGA FORECAST TO OCCUR
RIGHT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...BUT WITH THE WARM
GROUND...MOST OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR SO. AS WE
LOSE MID LEVEL SATURATION AND ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN TOMORROW
WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TURN TO MAINLY
RAIN...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH....THEN SWITCH BACK TO SNOW LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT TIME AND AREA OF SWITCH OVERS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...AS THERE MAY EVEN BE BACK AND FORTH TYPES
MOST OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE FORECAST WINDS AT 35 KNOTS AT A
FEW THOUSAND FEET ALTITUDE.



.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THERE ARE AT LEAST A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PCPN DURING THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN
MAYBE TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT FALLING SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
THURSDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG
WESTERLY AND THEN NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
THE NAM12 AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO ACCOMPANY THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THE SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF INTO THURSDAY FOR
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LAKE ENHANCEMENT/EFFECT SNOW OVER PARTS OF NW
WISCONSIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME AREAS OF NORTHERN IRON AND
BAYFIELD COUNTIES COULD GET UP TO COUPLE INCHES OR SO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. WARM AND
BREEZY SSW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE AND IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
LOW IN CANADA. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER
40S...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD...PASSING
JUST NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL PROBABLY BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE COULD BE WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT
HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY SSE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A
LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND THEN NW MINNESOTA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS
APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING -SN AND WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TO THE REGION. THE IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL GENERALLY SPREAD FROM
SW TO NE...REACHING KBRD BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND OTHER TERMINALS
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD
BE BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS
LOW.

THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITION TO MORE PREDOMINANT MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING AS WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NW
ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE -SN MAY
BEGIN TO BE MIXED WITH RAIN AS THE TEMPERATURES WARM UP BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  38  21  32 /  80  80  40  10
INL  32  37  15  27 /  80  80  60  10
BRD  31  38  23  34 /  90  60  20  10
HYR  28  40  23  33 /  90  70  40  30
ASX  30  40  24  31 /  70  70  70  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GRG







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