Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 182036
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
336 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Ridging overhead has kept our sensible weather very quiet the last
couple days. This surface ridge is slowly sliding off to the
southeast, allowing our surface winds to gradually increase over
yesterday, and will increase still more tomorrow, though they will
remain generally light. Tonight very light winds and nearly clear
skies should produce yet another good radiational cooling night,
but the warm air advection going on aloft and increasing moisture
from the southwest should keep us from getting as cold as we have
the last couple mornings. Have gone with min temps generally from
36 up through the low 40s, which matches fairly well with what
happened upstream of us yesterday. The light winds should allow
some locally colder areas though, so have put in some patchy frost
for mainly northwest Wisconsin, but a few places in the Arrowhead
needed it as well. The southwest flow and warm moist advection
continues through Thursday, bringing warmer temperatures and
dewpoints. Models have a tendency to overdo the moisture return so
have used a local mixing tool to to put in slightly lower
dewpoints and drier RH values for tomorrow afternoon. Along the
same lines the GFS has the strongest moisture return and is
producing some convection over central Minnesota, along with some
of our CAM models. This is likely overdone as compared to what the
mixing tool produced and have limited some very small pops to just
the Brainerd lakes area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

An upper level ridge over the central US will amplify and build into
the Upper Midwest into the weekend, giving the Northland several
days of southerly flow and a warming trend. Temperatures will climb
from highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Thursday to the middle and
upper 70s by Sunday. Little if any precipitation is forecast, but a
passing upper level low on Friday will bring synoptic lift, creating
scattered/broken cumulus and possibly sprinkles Friday afternoon.

The southerly flow will be relatively light through Saturday, but
the gusty flow will kick in Sunday when the ridge shifts east and
surface low pressure moves into the Plains. A cold front will move
into the Northern Plains Sunday night and the Northland Monday,
bringing an end to the long stretch of dry weather. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible Sunday night through Monday night as the
front moves through the region. Shortwaves following the cold front
could bring some showers and storms on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

The VFR conditions will continue through Thursday with clear
skies. Light southerly flow will develop today into Thursday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  69  44  69 /   0   0   0  10
INL  41  75  45  74 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  42  72  49  72 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  37  70  42  71 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  39  70  43  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Grochocinski



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