Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 221739 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1239 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.




&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

AT 330 AM...SKIES RANGED FROM MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE CWA...TO CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE
CWA. SOME BREAKS HAD ALSO DEVELOPED AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKES
REGION...BUT THERE WAS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE AND FOG AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S AT KINL AND KCDD...TO THE
LOWER 40S IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING DRIER AIR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD
SEE LOW CLOUDS GENERALLY LINGERING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY...FOLLOWED BY A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS. HIGH AND
MID CLOUDS WILL ALREADY START TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD STILL SEE QUITE A BIT
OF SUNSHINE. ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE OR RAIN SHOULD END FAIRLY EARLY
IN THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...BUT SOME
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES
PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD. STRONG WAA WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY...REACHING THE BLACK HILLS BY SATURDAY
EVENING. A STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE SURFACE
LOW INTO SOUTHWEST MN. STRONG WAA AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

A COOLER AND WET PATTERN LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
MAINLY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RAIN
WILL END AS SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET...WITH UP TO A HALF
INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
DEVELOP AS THE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPS IN THE
TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...COOLEST
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 30S TO MID 40S...THEN
COLDER SUN NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S IN FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR
WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE LOCATED...WITH WELL OVER AN INCH OF
RAIN EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WITH SOME AREAS APPROACHING TWO INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS
NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE...UP TO A HALF INCH...WITH A SHARP NORTHERN
GRADIENT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS...WITH MON NIGHT BEING
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LOWS DIP INTO THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30. STILL...THIS IS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
SUNNY TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S.

THE SUNNY SKIES DO NOT LAST FOR LONG AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TUESDAY EXITS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A
COLORADO LOW DEVELOPING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF THIS LOW
THE COOLER CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE RESULTING IN JUST
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND THUS SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN AT TIMES. THE BEST
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF THE PRECIPITATION LIKELY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S.

FOLLOWING THE LOW ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH...BUT WITH A LACK OF A COLD AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH IT DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL ALL THAT MUCH. THIS SORT OF PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

ONCE THE LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KHYR CLEAR OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...ALL NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN TERMINALS CAN
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT NE FLOW WILL
BECOME ESE BY SATURDAY MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP NEAR THE MINNESOTA/CANADIAN BORDER BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND KINL WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  27  49  36 /   0   0  40  70
INL  54  27  52  37 /  10  20  60  50
BRD  58  35  67  45 /   0   0  40  60
HYR  53  28  64  47 /   0   0  20  70
ASX  44  30  56  40 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI



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