Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 171501
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1001 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO EXTEND POPS FURTHER EAST AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE HRRR...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRCIP WILL HANG
AROUND LONGER AND DRIFT EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALSO...ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.
REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

MS

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AT 330 AM...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO
THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN FROM A SLOW MOVING
COMPLEX EARLIER IN THE NIGHT STARTED TO BREAK UP AND THE REMNANTS
WERE THE FAIRLY NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS NOW MOVING INTO
BRAINERD. TEMPS RANGED FROM NEAR 50 AT GRAND MARAIS TO THE 60S IN
THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE RESOLVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER FOR TODAY
AFTER BACKING OFF QUITE A BIT IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. WILL OBVIOUSLY
HIT THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA HARDEST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD POPS FURTHER NORTH AND EASTWARD AS THE DAY WEARS
ON. WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY IN MUCH OF NW WI AND THE
ARROWHEAD...BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE TWIN PORTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT TONIGHT...AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES CLOSER TO MN.
THE H5 TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL
LARGELY BE OF THE SCATTERED VARIETY...IT SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.75 INCHES. COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 70S...BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THE UPPER TROF WILL STILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE SFC THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND...PUT MOST OF THE PCPN OVR THE NORTHLAND IN STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST MOVES OVR WI ON
TUESDAY...MOST OF THE PCPN WILL END IN THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVERHEAD AND STRONG LOW
TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF
LINGERING SHOWERS/ AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.  AFTER WEDNESDAY WE SEE A BIG DIVERGENCE OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS...THE ECMWF BRING ANOTHER SFC LOW INTO NWRN MN THURSDAY AND
BRINGING A WARM FRONT NORTH ...AND AS A RESULT...MORE RAIN. THE GFS
ON THE OTHER HAND...HINTS AT A BIT OF SHOWERS ALSO....BUT LITTLE
SFC SYSTEM. THE BIG PICTURE HAS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY...BUT A BROAD TROF IN THE WEST.  THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THE NORTHLAND WILL MAINLY FEEL THE RESULTS OF THE TROF AS IT
DIGS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THIS COULD MEAN A WET WEEKEND FOR
THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM  CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

ATHE AREA WILL BE UNDER CLOUDS TODAY. THIS MORNING SKIES WILL BE
MVFR WITH PATCHES OF IFR...BUT WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO VFR AFT 16Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED OVR THE REGION...ESPECIALL
FROM KRD TO KDLH. CIGS WILL BE LOWER LATER THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  54  69  58 /  20  60  70  60
INL  74  53  73  58 /  40  60  70  50
BRD  70  60  77  61 /  70  60  70  50
HYR  73  58  78  59 /  20  60  70  70
ASX  69  56  75  58 /  10  60  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC





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