Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 212052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
352 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

A warm front/trough will move across the forecast area tonight.
Some chances for showers will accompany the front, but mostly
farther north where the better moisture has become pooled ahead of
an inflection point along the front over southern Manitoba. Warm
air advection at 850mb is pretty strong along this boundary so we
have enough frontogenesis to sustain the shower activity currently
over western MN/eastern SD, but ceilings are above 3kft most
locations and conditions get drier as the front moves east. Better
frontogenesis shifts farther north along the Canadian border
overnight, so between that and the drier air have kept pops mostly
along our far north and went with sprinkles or dry farther south.
Saturday to remain dry with the warm wedge still over our area and
the sunshine we should get should also boost highs into the 50s
most locations, a welcome change for outdoor activities after our
week of cooler values. The shortwave for Saturday night should
begin spreading some high clouds our direction in the afternoon,
so I may be a little optimistic on high temperatures, but have
only gone a little above the average guidance values so I
hopefully haven`t overdone it.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Summary: The Northland can expect a stretch of seasonable weather
with highs generally in the upper 40s and low 50s and lows in the
30s. There are still no signs of any significant snow for the
foreseeable future, just some opportunities for light rain.

A low will cut across the Dakotas Saturday night and move through
southern Minnesota and Wisconsin Sunday, drawing down a weak a cold
front from the north. The GFS and Canadian are indicating light rain
will spread into northern Minnesota, primarily the Borderland into
the Arrowhead, late Saturday night and Sunday morning, but the ECMWF
and NAM only hint at some sprinkles. The forecast pcpn chances are
rather compared to the amounts and agreement in pcpn from the GFS
and Canadian because of the much drier NAM and ECMWF. Breezy and cool
northwest flow will develop Sunday in the low`s wake, with highs
ranging from the middle 40s near Canada to the middle 50s south of
Highway 2.

High pressure will move into the Northland Sunday night and Monday,
likely providing a stretch of clearer skies. The temperatures early
Monday morning will likely be the week`s coldest due to the
favorable conditions for radiational cooling from the clear skies
and light wind speeds. Lows will likely reach below freezing for
most areas. Sunshine Monday will let highs rebound to the upper 40s
and low 50s.

The models continue to develop a low in the Central Plains towards
the middle of the week, and have it moving east through the Plains
through Wednesday. The models had generally been indicating it could
bring rain as far north as the Northland, but the general trend is
for the rain shield to mostly be south of the forecast area. There
are still low chances of rain across the southern forecast area.

Confidence beyond Wednesday is somewhat low, but the ECMWF and GFS
generally bring warmer, southerly flow into the region in the wake
of the passing low. The GFS pumps in much warmer air than the ECMWF,
so there is a possibility we may need to warm up the forecast for
subsequent forecasts.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

The widespread VFR across northeast Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin will likely continue through Saturday morning. There
will be some scattered clouds around 3 to 5 kft through the middle
of the afternoon, and increasing/lowering high clouds from the
west as a front approaches the region. There may be sprinkles for
some areas of northern Minnesota late this afternoon and evening.

The front will move through the Northland, from west to east,
later tonight and Saturday morning. Expect the southerly flow to
become west to west-northwest in its wake.


DLH  37  56  40  51 /  10   0  10  20
INL  37  52  37  46 /  30  10  30  20
BRD  37  59  40  53 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  37  59  38  54 /  10   0   0  10
ASX  39  57  40  52 /  10   0   0  30




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