Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 312019
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
319 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN SFC LOW CENTER AT 19Z WAS LOCATED NEAR HCO IN NW MN. PREFRONTAL
TROF EXTENDED SW THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND APPEARS TO HAVE
JUST PASSED THROUGH BWP. ACTUAL COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED GFK AND
BAC IN ND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA AND HAS KEPT A STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. LATEST RUC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD
WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE FA. LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY TO
NEAR STC AT 19Z. LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY THAT THIS
LINE WAS PRODUCING A FEW HOURS AGO. GOOD SHOT OF WAA NOT ARRIVING
OVER THE FA AND HAS BEGUN TO TRANSLATE TO THE SFC AS WINDS BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH. MARINE LAYER EXTENDS FROM NEAR COQ TO THE TWIN
PORTS AND UP THE NORTH SHORE INLAND TO EASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY AT
19Z. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. REGARDLESS...HAVE POPS ACROSS THE
FA TONIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY STORMS INTO THE FA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL A QUESTION MARK ATTM AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. BY THEN...DIURNAL HEATING IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND MAY PLAY A ROLE IN FORMATION. WILL EAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF SEVERE WORDING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PROMINENT HOWEVER BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z PER LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS. THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS WILL
END BY 03Z AND THEN JUST TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND NOT EXPECTING ANY FLASH FLOODING
EVEN WITH THE SATURATED SOILS. HIGHEST QPF TOTALS WILL BE IN NW WI
WHERE SANDY SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE WATER. RIVER
LEVELS ARE LOW AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAIN EVENT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NW WI WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING FROM W TO E IN THE
AFTERNOON. GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE STORMS PERCOLATING
IN THE MORNING WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE E IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS
TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER
THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD HAS LOW CHANCES OF PCPN DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF ONE OR TWO SUBTLE TROUGHS. HOWEVER...WE MIGHT
BE ABLE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TO DRY WITH TIME. THE MODEL PCPN
MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY LITTLE AND PRIMARILY ONLY SHOWN BY THE GFS AND
GEM. THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH IN THE ECMWF...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRY.

MORE MOIST SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WHICH LOOKS STORMY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND/OR NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN...WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY
GETTING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND.

WHILE MUCH OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S...BUT COULD BE LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

THERE MIGHT BE LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY...OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR CIGS
AND GUSTY SE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER AND ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE NORTHLAND.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS IT
AHEAD OF AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE SHOULD BE TRANSITION TO MORE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER. THE GUSTY SE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE...PRIMARILY TO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...TONIGHT DUE REDEVELOPING LOW CLOUD
COVER...MIST/FOG...AND ONGOING -SHRA. THE -TSRA COULD CONTINUE FOR
SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT I ONLY FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR -TSRA
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE -TSRA IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE
CONDITIONS TO QUALIFY FOR ADDING WIND SHEAR INTO THE FORECAST...SO
I ADDED A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR FOR KHYR AS AN INITIAL STEP. WE
MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO KDLH/KHIB DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
WITH WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIFT THE MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  70  53  73 /  70  30  20  30
INL  56  69  48  73 /  50  20  20  30
BRD  60  72  53  76 /  30  10  20  20
HYR  64  72  52  75 /  90  40  10  20
ASX  64  73  53  75 /  90  40  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





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