Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 140031
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
631 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Increased wind speeds and gusts along the north shore as Grand
Marais is gusting to 40 to 45 mph. Also, HRRR suggests just
offshore that these winds could be sustained through at least
midnight.

UPDATE Issued at 532 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Updated aviation section for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Mostly sunny skies were observed this afternoon across much of the
Northland. The mid-level shortwave that brought light snow this
morning has moved off to the east, and mid-level zonal flow will
take its place. There is some expanding cloud cover over central
Minnesota where there is a lack of snow pack on the surface. This
cloud cover is anticipated to consolidate with a band of low- to mid-
level stratus currently located over north-central Minnesota per
GOES East satellite imagery later this afternoon and evening. This
cloud cover should linger over the Arrowhead region this evening
before shifting off to the east, leading to clearing skies to the
west, and a period of enhanced radiational cooling. Due to this, I
decreased the overnight low by a few degrees. Overnight lows will
range in the lower to middle teens.

For Wednesday, winds will remain from the southwest, so warm air
advection will continue. A thermal ridge will build into the
Northland, which will warm 850 mb temperatures to around +2 to +5
degrees C, so expect the warmest day across the Northland since
January 26, when Duluth reached a high of 45 degrees. It shouldn`t
be quite that warm, but highs are still forecast to reach into the
middle to upper 30s for much of the region. Surface low pressure is
expected to develop over Alberta/Saskatchewan Canada, and advance
east-southeastward to southwest Ontario Canada. This surface low
will bring our next chances of precipitation. There is only a small
chance for any precipitation over northern Koochiching county
Wednesday afternoon, with the better chances Wednesday evening and
overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

The extended period will feature several shortwaves moving through
the region bringing opportunities for snow.

Westerly flow aloft will exist to start off the period. A cold front
will move south through the Northland Wednesday night and a surface
low will track across eastern Lake Superior into southern Ontario by
12Z Thursday. Light snow will occur with the front Wednesday night
into Thursday. Snow accumulation is expected to be light, less than
an inch for most areas. A couple of inches will be possible along
portions of the South Shore into Thursday evening, especially the
snowbelt of Ashland and Iron Counties as winds turn northerly and
temperatures cool. Highs Thursday will be much colder than
Wednesday, especially over northern Minnesota. Highs will range from
10 to 15 over the Borderland to the mid to upper twenties over
northwest Wisconsin.

High pressure will move through the region late Thursday night into
Friday then another shortwave will arrive Friday night/Saturday
bringing another chance for light snow with light accumulation
expected. Highs Friday will be in the teens but warm into the lower
twenties to around 30 on Saturday. Yet another chance for snow will
occur Sunday into Sunday night and a few inches could occur.
Southern portions of the Northland are expected to warm into the
lower thirties Sunday with twenties elsewhere.

Quite a bit of uncertainty surrounds the Monday through Tuesday
period. A western trough is expected during that time but the
position of the trough and the track and strength of downstream
shortwaves differ between the various models. Some accumulating snow
could occur over portions of the Northland Monday/Tuesday but it`s
too early to say much more than that at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

VFR, but strong low level winds continue to make LLWS a threat.
Winds gradually weaken overnight. A little concerned that the
region could see advection fog Wednesday morning as warm air
continues to usher into the region, but think atmosphere may be
dry enough to stave off its formation and we may just see elevated
RHs more than anything.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  15  35  21  25 /   0   0  20  40
INL  13  38  11  13 /   0  20  60  40
BRD  13  37  20  24 /   0   0  20  30
HYR  15  40  22  31 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  18  40  24  28 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolfe
SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Wolfe



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