Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 282035
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
335 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 330 PM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA. WE DID SET A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81 AT DULUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 79 SET BACK IN 1956
AND 1898. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OF 3 PM...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN IRON
RANGE AND INTO NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SOME 30
DEGREES OR SO BELOW WHAT THEY WERE TODAY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN THE EVENING...ACROSS THE
BRAINERD LAKES...TWIN PORTS AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE LAST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING A HAZARD FOR SMALL
CRAFT ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AS WINDS SWITCH FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ALTHOUGH WITH STORMS THE AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER.

MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY FEEL DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS
ON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S
NORTHEAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH AND WEST. THE GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL QUEBEC. THERE WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL...AND MORE SO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE LAKE. THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND AS THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND SE FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NORTHLAND. WHILE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL THEN
LIFT INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY...AND THEN MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE
NORTHLAND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AND UNSTABLE NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS SHORTWAVES THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION...WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S
TO SSW WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE WAS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH OVC MVFR
CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MVFR CIGS WERE AFFECTING THE KINL AREA.

EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. IT WILL LIKELY REACH
THE KBRD AND KDLH AREA BY 2Z...AND THE KHYR AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE
WILL A WIND SWITCH TO THE N AND/OR NE...RAIN SHOWERS...AND
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS. MOST OF THE REGION
WILL TRANSITION FROM VFR TO IFR/MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS FROM
-RA/BR. THE KDLH AREA COULD BE THE MOST AFFECTED TERMINAL DUE TO
THE COOL AND HUMID ENE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH MOST
TERMINALS RETURNING TO MVFR CIGS. THE KHYR WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT
IFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS.

THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF THUNDER FOR THE KHIB/KBRD AND JUST
NORTH OF THE KDLH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  49  40  53 /  70  40  10   0
INL  42  52  35  59 /  80  10   0   0
BRD  49  56  40  59 /  70  30   0  10
HYR  46  52  36  62 /  60  60  10   0
ASX  46  49  38  56 /  70  70  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR LSZ121-142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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