000
FXUS63 KDLH 191947
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
247 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM....TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW
ROTATING OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS STRONG AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
HAS ALLOWED FOR A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE CWA.

AT 200 PM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT ALIGNED ALONG THE SRN DLH
CWA BORDER...GENERALLY EXTENDING FROM THE KBRD AREA....EAST TO
K04W...KHYR...AND KPHB. SOUTH OF THIS LINE WINDS WERE DUE SOUTH WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. NORTH OF THE FRONT...WINDS WERE
EAST WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S.

AS THE LOW IN THE DAKOTAS GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST INTO WESTERN
MN THROUGH MONDAY...IT WILL LIFT SEVERAL WAVES OF RAIN...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS THE REGION. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR ONGOING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITH DEEPLY
SATURATED PROFILES...AND LONG-SKINNY CAPE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...PWAT VALUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS HOVER AROUND 1.25-1.50
INCHES...WHICH IS AROUND 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN DIMINISHES MONDAY
NIGHT...HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECTED VERY SATURATED SOILS BY THIS TIME AND ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN ZONES ON THE NRN FLANK
OF THE LOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

.EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SLOW
MOVING LOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN
MINNESOTA AREA 00Z TUESDAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED WHERE
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA MEET. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
LOOK TO BE LIGHTER DURING THAT TIME...WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING
LESS THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THAT 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT REMAIN LIKELY
OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE IT`S SLOW EASTWARD/SOUTHEAST TREK.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES TOWARD KINL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY...AND MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
DRY THEN...INTO LASTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPING
DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE CWA VERSUS THE GFS WHICH
BRINGS SHOWERS/STORMS BACK INTO THE AREA. WE HAVE POPS IN FOR
NOW...AND WILL ADJUST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND SIXTY OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...TO AROUND SEVENTY NEAR PHILLIPS. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP
AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR MUCH COOLER. MOSTLY SIXTIES ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH AREAS AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

AVIATION...18Z TAFS

A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SO
FAR TODAY...WITH IFR OVER MUCH OF FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND VFR
SOUTH. CU WAS EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTH THROUGH MINNESOTA...AND
SHOULD PROVIDE MVFR CEILINGS TO KBRD. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD RISE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THE IFR CEILINGS OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA
MAY ALSO LIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BUT THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS
KINL WILL REMAIN IFR.

AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE ANOTHER CHALLENGE WITH A MOIST
FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE. VSBYS HAVE RISEN AT MOST AREAS AROUND THE
LAKE...BUT THE MOIST FLOW MAY ALLOW VSBYS TO DROP AGAIN AT TIMES.
THIS AREA WILL BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE INTO THIS EVENING...THEN WE
EXPECT VSBYS/CEILINGS TO LOWER AGAIN.

RAIN WAS FALLING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND WE EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
QUITE STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  50  44  52 /  90  90  70  70
INL  51  58  46  59 /  90 100  70  60
BRD  54  69  51  63 /  80  80  70  70
HYR  59  76  54  68 /  80  80  70  70
ASX  49  64  46  55 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ001-002-006>008.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM....MELDE