Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 030931
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
331 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

A BROAD SURFACE LOW SYSTEM WITH CENTERS IN EASTERN IOWA AND OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. 09Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED 3HR PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 6MB OVER LAKE
HURON/SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH PRESSURE RISES OF 4MB TO 5MB OVER
EASTERN KANSAS/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR WESTERN IOWA. AREA RADARS
SHOWED SNOW CONTINUED TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...BUT WAS DECREASING IN INTENSITY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WAS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE AND OVER FAR
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA. THIS WAS IN AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN. THE FGEN WILL BE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND KDLH VWP SHOWED 700MB WINDS
SLOWLY BACKING. AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO NORTH TO NORTHWEST
TODAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL INCREASE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE. IN ADDITION...AN ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW DUE TO A GRAVITY
WAVE MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA INTO
DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOST LIKELY START TO TAKE SHAPE
MID TO LATE MORNING PER THE LATEST RAP. THE STRENGTH OF THE
SNOWBAND IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THERE IS DRIER AIR NOT TOO FAR
AWAY. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THIS
MORNING BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS COUNTY
UNTIL 18Z OR 19Z. AFTER THAT TIME...DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND SHOULD
QUICKLY CAUSE THE SNOW TO DIMINISH.

AS FOR THE OTHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS...WE DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING
ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TODAY OF 2
TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE COUNTIES OF
DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD...ASHLAND...AND IRON. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY...WITH THE LOWER AMOUNTS WELL INLAND. IT
IS POSSIBLE THE WARNING FOR ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT
EVALUATE THAT DURING THE DAY. OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTH
SHORE COUNTIES...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS.

LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL END FOR MOST AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH SHORE AREAS WHICH WILL TAKE
LONGER TO SEE THE SNOW END...THEN A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WITH SNOWFALL LESS THAN AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. THE
NORTH SHORE...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF SILVER BAY...COULD SEE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR.

HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT FROM ZERO TO 8 BELOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE IN
THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW....THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ON THE
HORIZON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL RISING TO THE MILD SIDE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...THEN ARCTIC AIR INTRUDES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE MAIN STORY IS A BUILDING LONGWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WEST COAST AND TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST TO EAST. THIS PATTERN
SORT OF REPEATS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FIRST FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST...THEN REBUILDS TO BECOME MUCH STRONGER AND REMAINS
GENERALLY STATIONARY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOUGH FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND
DUE TO FAST WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LEADING TO
A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH...LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITE APPEARS MUCH WEAKER THAN EARLIER FOR A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN A STRONGER NEAR-CONTINUOUS
STREAM IN LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE LEADING TO SOMEWHAT POOR CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AT ANY SINGLE
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSISTENCY ACROSS GUIDANCE THAT THERE WILL
NOT BE ANY MAJOR STORMS...AND THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF OFF AND ON
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THIS TIME PERIOD.

WITH THE RIDGE IN THE WEST STRENGTHENING INTO NEXT WEEK THE STAGE
WILL BE SET FOR ARCTIC AIR TO DIVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A MOSTLY ICE-FREE LAKE SUPERIOR LIKELY LEADING TO A
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING ANY EXCEPTIONALLY
COLD AIR...EVEN THOUGH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SEEMS A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING -30C BY 12Z TUES THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE INCLUDE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE AROUND -20C AT
850MB...BELOW NORMAL BUT FAR FROM ORDINARY FOR EARLY FEB. COLDEST
DAY LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
AND LOWS FALLING TO AS COLD AS TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THE SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS DRY AIR PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NE WITH LINGERING
FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE KHYR
TERMINAL...THROUGH DAYBREAK...IMPROVING TO MVFR AFTER 16Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  18   4  23   5 /  60  30  40  10
INL  15   1  17  -3 /  10  50  30   0
BRD  19   8  24   6 /  10  30  30  10
HYR  21   3  24   2 /  70  20  30  10
ASX  23   5  26   8 /  90  30  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ006>009.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WIZ002>004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ038.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GRANING


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