Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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861
FXUS63 KDLH 270748
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
248 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS COVERING THE FORECAST AREA AT 07Z. A
MIX OF CIRRUS AND SOME MID CLOUDS WERE COVERING THE MUCH OF THE
REGION. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND
EASTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SEND LOBES OF ENERGY
THROUGH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MN AND WI. THIS ENERGY WILL ENCOUNTER
THE VERY DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN RAIN AND DRY OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA IN MN AND WI. HAVE
REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY TO BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH THE THE DRIER
SOLUTION WHICH IS FAVORED BY THE HIRES MODELS. RAIN FREE TODAY AND
BROUGHT IN SOME SMALL POPS FROM THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY IN MN AND
WI EAST TO THE U.S. HIGHWAY 8 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY WI
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS A COMPROMISE AMONGST THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WITH
THE NE WIND CONTINUING...WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS
WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY...THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH PREVAILS OVER THE
RAIN WHICH WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE A SMALL POP MENTION IN THE MORNING TO BLEND WITH THE
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE SOUTH. IN
THE AFTERNOON...HAVE REMOVED THE POPS WITH THE DRY AIR BECOMING
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION. STILL COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND AN
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN
EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY BREAKS DOWN
AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. WHILE
NOT THE IDEAL SET UP FOR WARMER WEATHER...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND THE
EASTERLY FLOW GIVING WAY TO A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW TEMPS WILL BE OFF
TO A MILD START FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD NOT MUCH TO
DISCUSS...JUST A LOW CHANCE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA IN EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER HIGHS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN THE TWIN PORTS. WHEN WINDS SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY TEMPS WILL WARM UP TO ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S MONDAY THEN THE LOW TO MID 60S
TUESDAY. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL
APPROACH THE 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BREEZY EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT DEEPENS TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SKIES MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS
AROUND 13Z-14Z EXCEPT AT KINL. THIS IS DUE TO THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF ONTARIO AND MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE
LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  31  43  32 /   0   0   0  10
INL  54  30  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  52  33  52  33 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  55  32  51  32 /   0  10  10  10
ASX  42  33  41  32 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ121-140>143-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...WL



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