Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 120003
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
603 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

An Arctic cold front will finish moving southeast through the
region this afternoon and evening with a period of gusty west-
northwest winds. There will be a clearing trend through this
evening as drier air moves into the region. The winds will weaken
overnight, but 5 to 10 mph winds will continue due to the cold air
advection. Clear skies overnight will help temperatures drop to
well below zero. Widespread wind chills of 20 to 30 below zero
should develop across much of central into northeast Minnesota by
the wee hours of Monday morning. The cold wind chills will linger
until late morning.

High pressure will move into the region Monday. Monday looks sunny
with light westerly winds. Highs should be in the single digits
above zero.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

Monday night through Tuesday a weak shortwave moves across the
area, and with the tight baroclinic zone over the area we should
get a chance of snow to the forecast area, mainly during the day
Tuesday. It looks like moisture is a limiting factor, so have kept
pops on the low side.

After the Tuesday wave moves through, strong westerlies aloft
ahead of a developing low off the Canadian west coast on Tuesday
night and early Wednesday will produce strong warm air advection
over the forecast area. The models are forecasting warm
temperatures with southwest surface winds, but there is a large
bust potential in this, as whether we get sunshine or not is going
to make a big difference. Both the GFS and NAM are also implying
stratus development, with a trapped boundary layer and high RH
values beneath it. This is not unreasonable, as the warm air will
have already been in place over the snowpack farther south and
could advect the moisture from melting snow to our area and aid in
cloud development. However, this far out models do not handle
this very well, and have already had a similar situation go warm,
sunny and dry when I figured clouds would keep us cooler earlier
this winter. For now have left the consensus forecast in place,
knowing that as the cloud trends develop we may need to
raise/lower temperatures a few categories for Wednesday. The cold
air is not very far away and surges back into the area with a cold
front that pushes through the area Wednesday night, also bringing
a chance of precipitation Wednesday night and early Thursday,
mainly across the northern forecast area.

There are some pretty significant model differences Thursday
night through next weekend, enough that I have very little
confidence in the forecast, especially for next weekend. Have left
the model consensus forecast with some slight chance pops and
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 602 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

High pressure will bring VFR conditions to the Northland
throughout the period. The exception will be this evening, with
some lingering snow showers. We could see some limited MVFR CIG`s
and VSBY`s, especially at KINL and perhaps KHIB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -10   6  -4  23 /   0   0  20  20
INL -20   2 -11  22 /   0   0  10  10
BRD -12   7  -1  24 /   0   0  40  10
HYR -11   9  -4  26 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  -4  10  -2  28 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Monday
     for MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Monday for MNZ020-021-
     033>035-037.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...DAP



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