Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 240827
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
327 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

A PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER ONTARIO.  THE UPPER LOW
IS NEARLY STACKED OVER THE SURFACE LOW...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS FLOWING OVER THE AREA...COOL
AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA.  IN ADDITION...WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS...STRONGER DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND WEAKER OVERNIGHT.  THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH...AND THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIGHT BUT EXPECT THAT SOMEONE GOING OUTSIDE HAS A
CHANCE OF GETTING WET.  850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY ABOUT 1-2C EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD STAY OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING.  IF IT WAS JUST A LITTLE COLDER
ALOFT WE WOULD BE TALKING ABOUT SEEING SNOWFLAKES...THOUGH NOT
ACCUMULATIONS. WITH ALL THIS CLOUD COVER AROUND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO STAY PRETTY CHILLY TODAY...AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN
THE 50S OVER THE ARROWHEAD TO LOW 60S AROUND BRAINERD. WITH SOME
OF THE CLOUD COVER RETREATING FOR TUESDAY AND WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER THE
ARROWHEAD TO UPPER 60S AROUND BRAINERD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

AFTER A FEW DAYS OF UNSEASONABLY COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...MORE SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AND ONWARDS. WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES
AND VERY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM12 SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST FOG IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...SO HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.
LEANED ON THE COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT PROMOTING RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT RECOVER TO
THE LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO SUNNY SKIES.

RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING IN EVEN
WARMER AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

DESPITE A TEMPORARY LAPSE INTO VFR... EXPECT MOST SITES ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES... WITH GENERALLY
2KFT CIGS... OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WILL
BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY AS WELL... BEFORE FINALLY LESSENING BY 02Z
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  47  64  47 /  20  20  10   0
INL  56  43  65  40 /  30   0   0   0
BRD  65  45  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  57  45  64  44 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  58  48  65  47 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ143>145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MCLOVIN


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