Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 170858
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
358 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

CLOSED MID LVL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS CTRL CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED SOLUTION OF TRIPLE POINT REDEVELOPMENT IS
UNDERWAY WITH INITIAL SFC LOW JUST WEST OF KGNA...WITH SECONDARY SFC
LOW JUST EAST OF IRON COUNTY. A LOW LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONNECTS THESE
TWO FEATURES...REMNANT OF THE OCCLUDED BDRY. WITH DEEPENING OF BDRY
LYR N/NWRLY FLOW THE EARLIER DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED AND DFA HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.PRECIPITATION ORGANIZATION IS TIED TO LOW/MID LVL
FRONTOGENESIS FROM SOUTH SHORE NORTHWEST INTO THE ARROWHEAD. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF QUARTER TO HALF INCH HAVE BEEN FOCUSED OVER ST
LOUIS COUNTY. GUSTS ARE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH OVER WRN CWA AS
SFC PRESS GRADIENT INCREASES IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

TODAY...MID LVL LOW WILL MOVE WELL EAST OF THE REGION TAKING ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW/MID LVL SHEAR AXIS SOUTH OF THE CWA. MAJORITY OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING OVER TWIN PORTS AND OVER NW
WISC THROUGH THE AFTN HRS. GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHLAND AS SFC PRESS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
BUFKIT MOMENTUM PROFILES SUGGEST GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES NEAR THE
TWIN PORTS. MDL XSECTS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS AFTER 18Z.

TONIGHT...AN ELONGATED SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE WRN EDGE OF
THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. RAIN WILL MIX WITH WET SNOW THIS EVENING
OVER THE ARROWHEAD. WISC ZONES WILL HAVE SLOW DISSIPATION OF
PRECIP BY MORNING WITH SOME WET SNOW POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER
BAYFIELD/IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES. ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR LESS
IS POSSIBLE OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES.

TOMORROW...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH SFC RIDGE AXIS
EASTWARD QUICKLY DURING THE DAY. BY AFTN...WARM ADVECTION WILL
HAVE BEGUN OVER WRN CWA. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN THE CLOUD
FORECAST. MDL SNDGS FROM NAM BUFR ARE INSISTING A LAYER OF LOW
BKN/OVC MAY PERSIST A LOT LONGER ACROSS THE CWA AS DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRAPS RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE. UPDATES MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR THIS POTENTIAL AS CURRENT FCST IS NOT THAT
PESSIMISTIC.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFS ON BOTH
COASTS WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN CANADA.  NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE IN THE
OFFING FROM THIS WEEKEND THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK..WITH
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS
BOTTLED UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA BY STRONG ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE TRANS-CANADA HIGHWAY CORRIDOR.

NW FLOW WAVE WILL SLIDE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN..WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE DULUTH CWA.  THEREAFTER..RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS..WITH GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
MON-THURS TIME FRAME.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

VERY COMPACT VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE WAVE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD...SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT/VARIABLE OR LIGHT EAST TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BY 12-15Z. THIS
SHIFT IN WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. STEADY
PRECIP SHOULD END IN THE DLH AREA BY 09Z..BUT VICINITY SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST WELL INTO FRIDAY. MVFR-IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS PUSH
LOWER STRATUS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 00Z SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  46  36 /  50  20   0   0
INL  48  26  46  36 /  40  10   0  10
BRD  52  34  51  38 /  30  10   0   0
HYR  50  36  49  34 /  50  20   0   0
ASX  49  37  47  34 /  70  50  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ143>146.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...STEWART






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