Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 230534
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1134 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WILL BE EXPANDING DENSE FOG ADVISORY NORTH TO GENERALLY THE US HWY
2 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING WALKER...AITKIN...THE TWIN PORTS...AND ALL
OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

CURRENT SFC TEMPERATURE ARE AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...DIMINISHING THE THREAT FOR ANY FZDZ/FZRA
OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOARDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHERE THERE
MAY STILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW TO SUPPORT LIGHT FZDZ...MAINLY BEFORE
1000 AM. NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

A DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CLEARING
OUT ANY RAIN SHOWERS AND LINGERING FOG. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREAS SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE
40S. THE BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER
AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
EVENING. AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FOR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT IN THE
EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 450 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PRICE COUNTY IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOWMELT TO INCREASE MOISTURE TO THE ALREADY SATURATED AIR MASS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR WEST THE DENSE FOG WILL SPREAD...AND THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO COVER MORE AREA AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 450 PM CST
SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL BE ABSORBED BY A
STRONG AND DEEPENING LOW IN THE MIDWEST AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS
LOW...AND THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PCPN WILL FALL. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GEM AND GFS
SHIFTED WEST AND INDICATE THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA COULD GET
SIGNIFICANT PCPN AND SNOWFALL...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF WAS CONSISTENT
TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LEANED ON A BLEND. IF FUTURE MODELS TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE GFS AND GEM...THEN MIGHT NEED TO CONSIDER SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA AND THE
ISSUANCE OF HEADLINES.

THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND SNOW OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA...TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND AS COLD AIR RUSHES OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO JUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. THE SNOWBELT
REGION IN NW WISCONSIN COULD SEE UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY MUCH MORE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE STILL INDICATING A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...SO LEANED ON A BLEND FOR PCPN
CHANCES. THIS CLIPPER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH...COULD
BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.

COLDER WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASING DEW POINTS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOWEST
CEILINGS...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND VLIFR CONDITIONS...WILL BE
FOUND AT KBRD/KDLH/KHYR...WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
THE NORTH AT KHIB AND KINL. CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS IN MN AS A WEDGE OF
DRY AIR LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BRING A SHIFT TO
GUSTY NW WINDS...LOWERING CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW MAY
MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE BORDERLAND/IRON
RANGE AREAS WHERE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR. FURTHER SOUTH...LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PROFILES QUICKLY
BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED AND SUPPORT ALL SNOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  39  24  24 /  30  30  40  60
INL  30  36  17  19 /  10  20  60  50
BRD  31  39  19  21 /  20  20  30  40
HYR  33  42  28  28 /  40  50  70  70
ASX  34  43  30  30 /  40  40  70  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ025-033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING





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