Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 131054
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
454 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 442 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

A miserably, bitterly cold airmass under a surface ridge of high
pressure is over the forecast area this morning, with temperatures
ranging from 10-20 below over NW Wisconsin, to 15-30 below over NE
Minnesota. Many cars- including mine- are going to complain about
having to start this morning. At last check, wind chill values for
most locations are in the 15 to 30 below range with a few
locations flirting with 40 below. Expect these conditions to
continue for several more hours before temperatures begin to
recover from overnight lows and the increasing southerly winds
begin to bring in warm air even as they cause wind chill values to
lower. For now the current suite of wind chill advisories seems
appropriate, though a few locations may dip below -40 for an hour
or two. Will keep an eye on that, though do not anticipate having
to upgrade to a warning at this time.

Warm air advection is already ongoing aloft, and a wave of
combined warm and moist advection is going to spread across the
region beginning this afternoon and continue through this evening
as shown by the latest 850mb T and RH forecasts. This wave is
going to bring increasing clouds and perhaps even some flurries as
the wave moves across. Do not have a lot of confidence in those
flurries as the moisture is quite limited. It will also cause
temperatures to warm and expect that we will not need another wind
chill advisory tonight with temperatures staying up in the zero to
5 below range. Exact temperature trends are going to be difficult
this evening as it is going to depend on the timing of the thicker
clouds, rising under the clouds and then falling once the clouds
move out. With the ridge well east of the area by Saturday
southerly winds are going to increase and combined with the
generally warmer airmass moving in highs will rise into the teens
to perhaps even low 20s on Saturday afternoon. In fact, it might
be a pretty nice day to get outside for some sunshine and winter
activities.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 442 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

An area of low pressure will move through the region early next week
and temperatures will warm well above normal toward the end of the
week.

Northwest flow over the region Saturday night will shift quasi-zonal
and eventually southwesterly through early next week. A shortwave
trough will move through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
Sunday morning and should bring an increase in cloud cover. A few
isolated flurries are possible along the International Border. A
much milder Pacific airmass will continue to build into the region
Saturday night with milder temperatures through the second half of
the weekend. Highs on Sunday will top out in the 20s across the
Northland, with even milder temperatures on Monday.

A deep longwave trough over the western United States will shift
eastward on Sunday and cross into the Plains on Monday. Another 24
hours have passed and the deterministic and ensemble guidance has
invented a new solution for the evolution of this system. The cutoff
upper low will drive into northern Mexico and then lift northeastward
toward the western Great Lakes Sunday afternoon through Wednesday. As
the upper low moves through Kansas and Nebraska on Monday, a northern
stream shortwave will move out of the Northern Rockies and phase with
the approaching system. The addition of the approaching shortwave
will pull the upper low a bit farther north than previously expected.
Another northern stream shortwave will move across the Northern
Plains on Tuesday night, kicking the earlier trough eastward a bit
quicker than previously expected. Precipitation will spread up the
Mississippi River Valley Sunday night and Monday, moving into
Northland early Monday morning. With the warmer airmass in place
ahead of this system, there is a potential for a wintry mix of snow,
sleet, and freezing rain, with inland portions of northwest Wisconsin
most favored for the mixed precip. The band of precipitation will
extend as far west as central Minnesota before pulling away to the
east on Tuesday. Behind the departing low winds are expected to veer
southwesterly and wind speeds over western Lake Superior will
increase markedly.

Wednesday night through the end of the week will feature a shift
back to a quasi-zonal pattern aloft with temperatures warming
through Friday. Highs Wednesday and Thursday are expected to climb
into the lower to upper 30s, a welcome reprieve from the cold of the
past few weeks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

High pressure will move across the Northland tonight causing the
wind to decrease further. Mainly VFR conditions are expected
through the period as the airmass is not only quite cold but dry
as well.

As the high shifts east, the wind will turn southerly but not be
nearly as strong as it was Thursday. Warm air advection will
develop and that will cause VFR ceilings to move in from south to
north Friday into Friday evening. There are some indications some
light precipitation may occur over the Borderland Friday evening
but the chances appear too low to include at KINL at this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  -3  16   1 /  10  10   0   0
INL   1  -4  13  -4 /  10  10   0   0
BRD   5  -4  18  -3 /  10  10   0   0
HYR   5  -3  19  -3 /  10  10   0   0
ASX   8  -1  20   3 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ001.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for WIZ002>004-
     006>009.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Melde



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