Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 010557 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SFC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH NW MN AND AT 19Z WAS
LOCATED NEAR ROSEAU SWWD TO WAHPETON ND. ONLY SOME CU/STRATUS WAS
FOUND NEAR THE FRONT WITH NO RAIN. THE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD A BIT
FURTHER EWD TONIGHT. THE STRATUS IN NW WI PERSISTS...BUT STILL
SHOWS SOME EROSION. SOME STRATUS/FOG IS HANGING ONTO THE NORTH
SHORE FROM NEAR LUTSEN TO ABOUT HOVLAND...BUT HAS ALSO SHOWN SOME
EROSION.

EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...NO MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRYER BOUNDARY LAYER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL WASH OUT THIS EVENING AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE EWD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH A LACK OF FORCING...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NW WI. GFS/NAM12 AND ARW ARE DRY.
ECMWF/GEM/NMM BRING IN SOME STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE NMM
HOLDING OFF UNTIL 21Z. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC COVERING THE
AREA...AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT...DIFFICULT TO
TIME ANY STORMS. DID LEAN TOWARD THE NMM/ARW/NAM12 AND PUSHED BACK
THE MENTION OF STORMS UNTIL 21Z WITH A REALIGNMENT OF POPS. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND TWEAKED AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN US WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
MAIN AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND BE A FORESHADOWING OF A
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
THURSDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THIS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER
CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT RIDE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AND INTERACT WITH THE HOT/HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTION WILL BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT IF
THERE IS AN AREA THAT DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE
A BIT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AND ALSO BE VERY SLOW-MOVING.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST REALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND EJECTS
A SERIES OF MORE POTENT WAVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
WEEKEND. COULD SEE FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. WILL
START TO SEE THE BEGINNING OF A COOL DOWN PERIOD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT HIB EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AT HYR LATER TODAY. SHOWERS SEEM LESS LIKELY AT
DLH DO NOT MENTION PRECIP THERE. SMOKE AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO VFR/MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS HIB/HYR WITH LOWER END
MVFR CIGS AT BRD. VSBYS/CIGS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE...AND NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY TO MENTION UNTIL AFTER 02.06Z WHEN A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOVING INTO THE BRD/HYR VICINITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  82  63  81 /  10  10  20  10
INL  54  87  64  85 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  65  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  64  84  64  83 /  10  20  20  10
ASX  62  84  62  84 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...HUYCK


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