Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 261406

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
906 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Issued at 906 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Light rain was occurring from Itasca County through the Brainerd
Lakes and eastward through the St. Croix river valley, to
Phillips at 9am. There remains a sharp cut off between dry air and
the rain from near the Twin Ports, and along the south shore of
Lake Superior. Made some adjustments to pops and weather for these
trends. Removed the mention of snow as the lowest levels have
warmed well above the freezing mark.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Light rain/drizzle today as two areas of low pressure impact parts
of the Northland. Cool today due to the easterly flow developing as
a low deepens across the mid-Mississippi river valley today into
this evening. Becoming warmer Thursday as warmer southerly flow
results in some slightly warmer air being brought into the region.

Today light stratiform rain will gradually spread across northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as an elevated warm front begins
to weaken as it lifts into the Northland. A surface low is
developing across Iowa this morning and will lift towards the Ohio
River Valley tonight, supported by a mid-level shortwave trough
across the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes. Another mid-level
shortwave just behind this first one will lead to continued chances
for light rainfall Wed night, but mainly for the international
border. Warmer air finally moves in Thursday as a longwave ridge
over the Rockies builds eastward towards the Great Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Flow turns out of the south Thursday night as an area of low
pressure, associated with a 850hPa trough, translates east across
the Dakotas. An increasing southwesterly low level jet will allow
mid level temperatures to rapidly rise into the teens Celsius in the
warm sector ahead of the low. The low is on track to pass over
northern Minnesota Friday afternoon, lifting into Ontario by Friday
evening. At this time have kept precipitation chances mainly
confined to the Minnesota borderland and arrowhead zones as the bulk
of the instability and moisture will remain to the north of the
International Border with this system.

Canadian high pressure will build into the region Saturday in the
wake of the low. The cold air advection will bring clouds and enough
instability to support light rain showers Friday night into

The weather pattern repeats itself Sunday night as another low
tracks into the Dakotas, placing the forecast area in a warm return
flow into Monday. Rain returns to the forecast Monday as the low
translates across the borderland and into Ontario through Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 706 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

MVFR Conditions with light rain or drizzle will prevail today as
an area of low pressure tracks across the region. Ceilings are
expected to lower to IFR overnight with areas of fog possible.


DLH  41  37  48  41 /  80  20  10  10
INL  43  38  49  42 /  20  30  20  10
BRD  43  37  52  43 /  90  10  10   0
HYR  42  34  49  41 /  90  20  10   0
ASX  44  37  49  41 /  80  40  10  10


LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ142>147.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ140-141.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121-



LONG TERM...Graning
AVIATION...Graning is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.