Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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646
FXUS63 KDLH 271139
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
639 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

The Northland can expect warm weather today. West-southwest flow
will develop as an upper-level trough approaches from the west.
While mid to upper level cloud cover will spread through the
region this morning and early afternoon, there should be better
sunshine later this afternoon. Temperatures will likely climb into
the lower 70s for much of the region. Low chances of showers and
weak storms are forecast for the northwest forecast area very late
this afternoon and this evening when a cool front approaches the
region.

The cool front and a more potent upper-level trough will move
through the Northland tonight and Sunday. This will bring chances
of showers. The best chances will be late Sunday morning and
Sunday afternoon because of the widespread instability likely to
develop in the cool west-northwest flow. Daytime heating should
result in scattered showers and isolated/scattered thunderstorms
for Sunday. There could be up to several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE,
but the threat of strong storms will be hampered by the lack of
deep layer shear. Brief small hail is possible, though, with the
stronger storms. High temperatures should range from the upper 60s
in northwest Wisconsin to the low 60s in the northwest forecast
area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

An upper level low over northwest Ontario Sunday evening will
move slowly toward northern Lake Superior by Monday evening. A
shortwave will move around the low and continue to bring a chance
for showers and a few thunderstorms to the Northland Sunday night
into Monday. Chances for rain will be highest over far northern
Minnesota. The low will deepen some as it reforms just west of
Hudson Bay on Tuesday. A couple more shortwaves will affect the
area Monday night into Tuesday evening keeping the chance for
showers going for most areas. Widespread heavy rainfall will be
unlikely Sunday night through Tuesday evening.

A relatively dry period is then expected Wednesday through Friday
under northwest flow aloft. A low level ridge will also be moving
over the region by late in the week. There may be a period of low
coverage light showers during the mid to late week time but no
significant rainfall is expected.

High temperatures will start off cool with highs Monday and
Tuesday in the mid fifties to around sixty. Temperatures will then
gradually warm through the week reaching the upper sixties to
lower seventies by Friday. As temperatures warm late week the flow
will switch to off of Lake Superior keeping those areas cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Areas of fog, some dense, were occurring across portions of
northwest Wisconsin. The fog should lift between 8 am and 9 am but
some stratus may linger a bit longer. A trough of low pressure
over the Northern Plains will move east. A shortwave will move
through the trough and may bring some showers or a thunderstorm to
northwest Minnesota this afternoon. The chance for showers will
expand tonight into Sunday across the Northland. Mainly VFR
conditions are expected through the period but some MVFR ceilings
are expected late tonight toward KINL.

The wind will be west to southwest today with some gusts of 15 to
20 mph developing this afternoon as mixing deepens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  49  64  46 /  10  20  50  50
INL  71  47  62  46 /  20  30  60  60
BRD  74  51  67  49 /  10  30  40  40
HYR  73  48  68  47 /  10  10  50  40
ASX  71  49  67  47 /  10  10  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde



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