Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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275
FXUS63 KDLH 052058
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM AN EQUALLY WEAK SFC LOW
CENTER IN NW MN...SWWD INTO EASTERN SD AT 20Z. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...A PARTLY SUNNY SKY COVERED THE FORECAST AREA. A PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT WAS DRIFTING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IT HAS PROVIDED SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN
THIS AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW
ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN MN. NAM/GFS/ECMWF QPF FIELDS ARE WAY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN
SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT THE ARROWHEAD BEFORE 00Z. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN PLACE OVER
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO EASTERN WI BY 06Z AS THE SFC LOW REACHES
NE LAKE SUPERIOR AND A SFC TROF REACHES NW WI. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AS WELL AS IN NORTH
CENTRAL WI. SOME FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN NW WI AND
HAVE A MENTION. THE SFC TROF EXITS NW WI BY 12Z SATURDAY AS WELL AS
THE UPPER TROF. LINGERED SOME SMALL POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AS
THESE FEATURES PASS BY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM.

ON SATURDAY...THE NAM IS WAY TOO FAST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT/SPREADING
OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
REACH INTO NE MN BY 18Z. PREFER THE GFS20/ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE AREA
FREE OF SNOW BEFORE 18Z. THIS IS DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A DIGGING UPPER TROF REACHES THE DAKOTAS. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARM FRONT TO BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE IRON RANGE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS/WEATHER AS A RESULT. LITTLE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE...AND WILL BE WRUNG OUT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING ITS
TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...SO INCREASED PCPN CHANCES. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SO THE INITIAL SNOW WILL BE LIMITED NORTH AND EAST OF
THE WARM FRONT...AFFECTING ONLY THE ARROWHEAD. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY...AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE GUNFLINT TRAIL AND GRAND PORTAGE AREA
COULD GET 1 TO 2 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN THE WHOLE
NORTHLAND SHOULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF THE LOW. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW SUNDAY...AND WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS AND FALLING SNOW
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY...PARTICULARLY
IN MORE OPEN AREAS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES...AND THE
COLD NW FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OVER NW WISCONSIN.

CLEARER SKIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE
CONTINUED NORTHERLY ARCTIC FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OVER NW WISCONSIN WELL THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN
THE LOWER 30S...BUT THERE WILL BE A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP
INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER. THE TEMPERATURES DROP A
LITTLE MORE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RECOVERY
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST COMING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY...FROM
WEST TO EAST...AND LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VERY
LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE CONCERNING CEILINGS THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
NAM MOS...ARE INDICATE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND GFS MOS CLEARS THE LOW CEILINGS OUT OF THE
AREA...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. SINCE THE GFS SEEMS
TO BE DOING BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS...MY BETS ARE WITH THE
CLEARER GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  30  26  31 /  10  10  20  60
INL  12  28  25  31 /  10  30  50  70
BRD  14  34  29  33 /   0  10  10  60
HYR  16  32  26  35 /  10  10  10  60
ASX  19  32  27  35 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI



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