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000
FXUS63 KDLH 030548
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1148 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

HAVE PUSHED BACK ONSET TIMING OF SNOW...AS LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME. SNOW
IS BEING REPORTED IN SW MINN...AND IS ON TRACK TO PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES/BRAINERD LAKES AREA AROUND 08-09Z...REACHING THE
TWIN PORTS AROUND 10-11Z. THIS TIMING ALSO CORRELATES WELL WITH
THE CORRIDOR OF HIGHEST OMEGA FROM THE LATEST NAM12.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A COMPLEX WINTER STORM WILL BRING GENERALLY THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF
SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MODEL TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAS BEEN GENERALLY
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...WITH A SUBTLE NUDGE NORTHWARD
AND A BIT FASTER.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THERE ARE TWO MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WHICH
WILL INTERACT AS BOTH MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THE FIRST IS
AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL DESCEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SECOND FEATURE IS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT FROM BOTH OF THESE
DISTURBANCES...WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA DOWN
THE PLAINS TO THE SFC LOW IN NORTHEAST COLORADO TONIGHT. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT TOWARDS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH THE NORTHERN SFC LOW DEEPENING AS IT CROSS INTO
WESTERN ONTARIO. MID-LEVEL PVA WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD REGION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL...WITH AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL DEVELOPING ALONG/SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 2 IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE THE BEST FRONTOGENSIS SETS
UP.

LATE TODAY...CLEAR SKIES. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES...A FEW
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SNOWFALL BEGINNING
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN IN THE CENTRAL MINNESOTA
INCLUDING THE BRAINED LAKES REGION BY MIDNIGHT...SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL FALL
IN A BAND THAT DEVELOPS FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TWIN PORTS...AND THIS AREA MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT...IN THE LOW 20S BY 12Z
/6AM CST/.

TUESDAY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. THE MOST INTENSE
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS FOR TRAVELERS. SOME HIRES GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING ONE INCH PER HOUR OCCURRING
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 AM CST IN THE TWIN PORTS AND ACROSS PARTS OF
INTERSTATE 35. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME THE
MAIN WEATHER HAZARD WILL BECOME BLOWING SNOW. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30-35 MPH...WHICH WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW TO REDUCE VISIBILITY.
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL BE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG/SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. NORTH AND
WEST OF THESE AREAS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE 1 TO 3
INCHES...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL STILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW. CURRENT
WINTER WX ADVISORIES LOOK GREAT SO DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND
WILL MAKE A QUICK EXIT OUT OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL PULL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. SOME CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AS STRONG CAA CONTINUES TUESDAY
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WE MAY
NEED WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL
AGAIN BE ON THE COLD SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO. AFTER MIDWEEK...A MAJOR WARMUP IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. A BRIEF COOL DOWN
IS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE IN THE 20S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR THE
NORTHLAND FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 09Z...THEN LOWERING CEILINGS AS SNOW
SPREADS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK.
A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF HEAVY SNOW AND LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND AT KBRD/KDLH/KHYR WITH THE SNOW INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS
DECREASING NORTHWARD FOR THE KHIB AND KINL AREAS. THE MAIN PERIOD
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL END IN THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  26  -9   5 /  90 100  10  10
INL  18  21 -13   4 /  60  70  10  10
BRD  20  26 -11   6 / 100 100   0  10
HYR  17  28  -6   6 /  70 100  10  10
ASX  17  29  -4   7 /  70 100  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ011-012-018-019-021-025-026.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ020-037-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     MNZ033>036.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING