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000
FXUS63 KDLH 100540 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1240 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014


.UPDATE...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

AT 300PM/2000Z...THERE WAS A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WAS PROVIDING THE NORTHLAND WITH LIGHT
NW WINDS. THE COOL NW FLOW WAS CAUSING SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT WAS CLEARER AND CALMER TO
THE WEST DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHLAND. THE
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SPRINKLES OVER THE SW AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING BASED ON MOST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
SHOWERS IN THE COOL NW FLOW. RADAR SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
TODAY IN THIS AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...EXPECT COOL AND CLEAR SKIES WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE REGION. I LEANED ON THE
COLDER MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH RESULTED IN LOWERING THE TEMPERATURES
A BIT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS
ABOUT FOG. THE MODELS...INCLUDING MODEL SURFACE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS...SUGGEST IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED BRIEF FOG...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE TOO ISOLATED
TO MAKE IT WORTH ADDING TO THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
HIGH PRESSURE AND IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WHICH WILL BE INFLUENCED
BY THE COOL FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S WITH ISOLATED LOW 80S. IT SHOULD BE COOLER IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MN BY 06Z FRIDAY. MODELS
DISAGREE WITH PLACEMENT OF VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN THE TROF AND ITS
AFFECT ON OVERALL QPF. USED A BLEND WHICH RESULTED IN POPS BEING
REMOVED FROM THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE FAR
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA FOR THE MID EVENING. OVERNIGHT...THE SHORT
WAVE TROF MOVES INTO WI WHILE A COLD FRONT REACHES NW MN BY 12Z
FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN INCREASES OVERNIGHT. THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...SHOWERS INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FA. ON
FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROF DEPARTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE FA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY NIGHT FINDS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTING NW WI. HAVE POPS
ALIGNED WITH THE FROPA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
OVERNIGHT. MODELS DIVERGE ON SATURDAY. GFS/GEM HAVE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM EAST CENTRAL MN INTO NW WI AND PCPN ALONG THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN IN NW WI IN THE VCNTY
OF THE DEPARTING FRONT. MODEL ISSUES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND A
CONSENSUS WAS USED. ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
THE FA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THE FRONT
DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT...BEST INSTABILITY SHIFTS WELL AWAY FROM THE
AREA AND HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER. ON MONDAY...A
COLD CORE UPPER LOW USUALLY SEEN IN THE FALL...MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THEN DROPS INTO NW WI. SOME CAA SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP...THEN DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MORE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SW WINDS AT 2 KFT INCREASE TO
35 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS AT KBRD WHERE THE LLWS
ARRIVES FIRST. HAVE LEFT OUT OF OTHER TAF SITES ATTM AS MAIN PERIOD
OF LLWS DEVELOPS AT END OF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  73  57  77 /  20  60  20  10
INL  61  77  54  77 /  20  60  10  10
BRD  65  79  62  80 /  60  40  10  10
HYR  63  76  59  80 /  20  50  20  10
ASX  59  76  58  75 /  10  50  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GRANING/CANNON