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000
FXUS63 KDLH 042157
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
357 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

LAST PUNCH OF MAJOR 3+ DAY WINTER STORM WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. WRAP AROUND
LIGHT SNOWS WILL LIKELY AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN...BUT ADDITIONAL HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS AFTER ABOUT 10 PM OR MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. AS STORM BEGINS TO WIND DOWN...MAIN WEATHER STORY
WILL TRANSITION FROM HEAVY SNOW TO THE DEEPENING COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS THAT WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH LOWS AT LEAST IN THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO..HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO..AND SEVERAL PERIODS OF WIND
CHILL READINGS COLDER THAN -25F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR LA CROSSE WI AT MID AFTERNOON IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DEEPEN RATHER RAPIDLY..AND WILL MOVE TO EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING..BUT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER
RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS FINALLY MOVES
OVERHEAD AND EAST OF THE AREA. DUAL POL CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
DATA FROM KMPX/KARX/KDLH HAS BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY USEFUL IN TRACKING
THE WARM NOSE ALOFT OVER NW WI TODAY..AND CURRENTLY INDICATES THAT
PRECIP IS CHANGING BACK OVER TO MDT/HVY SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST IN
AREAS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 63 CORRIDOR. THUS..A QUICK ADDITIONAL
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER THESE PARTS OF NW WI THRU
EARLY EVENING.

FARTHER NORTHWEST..ALONG THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR IN NW WI AND THE
I35 CORRIDOR IN MN AND THE ENTIRE MN ARROWHEAD..ANOTHER 3-5 HOURS
OF HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED BEFORE RATES FINALLY BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT. AS SURFACE LOW
LIFT NEWD OVERNIGHT..LARGE AREA OF WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS COLD ARCTIC AIR
FILTERS IN AND LOWERS TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
BY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE A MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER WITH BY MIDNIGHT..WE WILL EXTEND THE
WINTER STORM WARNING PER COORD WITH WESTERN/SOUTHERN SURROUNDING
OFFICES THRU 6 AM THURSDAY AS ONGOING LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND INCREASINGLY COLD AIR STILL RESULT IN WINTER
STORM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT MUCH COLDER WEATHER THURSDAY AS GUSTY W TO
WNW WINDS BRING IN ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
BE LINGERING FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW...IN PARTICULAR ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WE WILL LIKELY NEED PERIODIC
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL VALUES OF 25 TO 35 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO.

IT APPEARS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHICH COULD RESULT
IN SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA HAS THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING SNOW.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAK IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. WE
BELIEVE OUR FORECAST WAS STILL TOO WARM SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY WEIGHTED TOO MUCH TOO CLIMATOLOGY THIS FAR OUT...SO WE SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERED THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SN/BLSN AND LOW CIGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS A POTENT WINTER STORM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF A MIXTURE OF FZRA AND SN AT KHYR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE WILL LIKELY BE IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   7  10  -9   2 / 100  10   0   0
INL   7   9  -7   2 / 100  50  10  10
BRD   4   6 -11   2 /  90  10   0   0
HYR  11  11 -10   4 /  90  10   0   0
ASX  15  15  -2   7 / 100  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR LSZ121-140>143-146>148.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-140>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CST
     THURSDAY FOR LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI