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000
FXUS63 KDLH 162014
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
314 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS MOVING
NE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.  THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKING SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH ND.   THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH ITS`
SURFACE REFLECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF
ND WITH SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW HITTING THE GROUND.  THE MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS NRN MN TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.  THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH.  THE LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 03Z...AND GNA/ASX BY 10Z.  DUE TO SOME FRONTOGENESIS
ACROSS THE AREA...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY BEFORE
ENDING WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY MORNING IN NE MN/NW WI EXCEPT THE
ARROWHEAD WHERE THERE WILL BE AROUND AN INCH MORE DUE TO TERRAIN
LIFT.

THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 210 IN
NE MN AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 IN NW WI.  ABOUT AN INCH WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

LONG TERM....MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FOCUS ON A WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF OF THE PACIFIC COAST. LATEST GFS/ECM ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE MAKES LANDFALL
OVERNIGHT...DEEPENING AS IT TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
MONDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR IDEA THAT A VORT/H85 LOW
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA MONDAY
NIGHT...WHILE LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER MN/WI. THIS LOW THEN DEEPENS
INTO A CLOSED H50 LOW AS IT ROTATES TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO THE STRONG FORCING AND PWATS AROUND A HALF INCH...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6-8"
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH ON THE NRN FLANK OF THE LOW
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE ALL OVER BOARD WITH THE LOW
TRACK...WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON
PTYPE/SN AMOUNTS. AN ENSEMBLE CLUSTER PLOT OF THE LOW TRACK ISSUED
BY THE WPC SHOWS VARIANCE IN THE LOW POSITION TUESDAY ANYWHERE FROM
NRN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN IOWA. WILL BE HOLDING OFF ON ISSUING A
WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
STORM TRACK.

HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST...CONTINUING TO
WEIGH THE POPS/QPF/SN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECM.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE/NRN WISC ZONES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND 8-10 KFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MANITOBA. THE WAVE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS...WITH LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
04-06Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WITH HIGH END MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
BRING RAPIDLY INCREASING MID- LEVEL MOISTURE/TEMPS AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  14  28  21  31 /  60  50  50  80
INL  15  34  19  30 /  60  40  40  60
BRD  18  36  26  32 /  50  40  60  80
HYR  11  30  22  37 /  50  60  10  40
ASX  11  29  22  35 /  50  60  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING