


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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911 FXUS63 KDLH 111753 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1253 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms are possible again today, with some being strong to severe this afternoon and evening. General storms will continue into Saturday. - Probabilities are increasing for precipitation somewhere in the Northland as early as Sunday evening into Monday. Warm temperatures return Sunday through Tuesday. - Our next widespread chance for showers and storms will be early Tuesday morning through Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Patchy fog is present this morning, but should dissipate quickly with the sun rising. Instability will build throughout the morning ahead of a cold front which will move through the Northland this afternoon and tonight. As with the last couple days, instability is plentiful (1000-3000 J/kg) but shear is lacking (up to 15 kts). Most high res models still have no clue how to handle this convection. The HRRR is currently the best though, so leaning towards that solution for Probability of Precipitation for now. Convection is expected to initiate as the cold front dips to the southeast into north central Minnesota. Main hazards will be damaging winds up to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch. PWats have decreased slightly in high res models as well, but storm motion will likely be along the front, increasing the chance for training. This may lead to heavy rainfall and localized ponding or flooding. Showers and storms will continue into Saturday, but the threat for severe weather towards the morning decreases. Though the cold front passes, the trough will remain in the area throughout Saturday. Southerly flow aloft will help to reinvigorate the instability across portions of northeastern into northwestern Wisconsin. Wind shear will have increased behind the cold front, with values in the 30s and 40s, and CAPE around 1000 J/kg. The wild card will be the cap aloft, which will inhibit initiation. If they do, some could be strong along our eastern CWA border. Temperatures will have a brief decrease in the 70s across the Northland before increasing again as warm air is advected into the region ahead of a trough. The strength of the trough still differs between models, but they are starting to agree that there will be showers and storms Sunday afternoon into Monday ahead of another cold front. Some could, again, be strong to severe as models show sufficient instability and shear. The cold front will dip south late Tuesday. Models differ on the speed of the front, and how long chances for storms will accompany it. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 VFR conditions prevail across most of the region early this afternoon with some MVFR ceilings working into northern areas. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase for later this afternoon and tonight. Confidence on coverage on timing is low. If a storm passes over a terminal, expected a brief period of IFR ceilings and visibilities and perhaps gusty winds. Some models try to bring some fog across northwest Wisconsin tonight, but thinking these VSBY reductions are more from rain than fog. Overall a low confidence forecast with very poor model agreement. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 213 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Variable winds over western Lake Superior today will only max out at around 10 kts. Showers and storms are possible over the lake this evening, and some have the potential to be strong to severe. Main threats will be gale force winds, hail, and cloud to water lightning. Winds will then increase out of the southwest tomorrow, but will still only gust to around 15 kts. Waves up to 2 ft are possible with the increased winds. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...BJH MARINE...KML