Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 010835
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
335 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS CAUSING SE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE NORTHLAND IS EXPECTED TO SEE A SURGE OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARDS INTO THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OF ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO
OVER 1 INCH AND COULD REACH UP TO 1.25 INCHES...SUBSTANTIAL GIVEN
ITS EARLY OCTOBER. THE THREAT OF THUNDER IS VERY LOW...BUT THE
MODELS INDICATE THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COULD MANAGE TO PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. THEREFORE...LEFT ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. A TROUGH/COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
CLEARING AND SOLAR HEATING OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW THIS FRONT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DID NOT HAVE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ADDED OVER THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST MODELS CAME DOWN A BIT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY...LIKELY IN PART DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE LOW TO UPPER
50S...BUT LOWER 60S ARE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WHEN
IT AS LONG AS IT CLEARS UP A BIT IN THE WEST.

THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AXIS OF THE BEST 850 HPA MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
WILL BE PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE DRY...BUT A SURFACE LOW IN THE
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NNE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL DEVELOP
INTO A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW AND BE LOCATED IN FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT IN FAR WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO
THE UPPER PENINSULA/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE LOW THAN THE GFS. RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE HIGH CHANCES FOR
RAIN FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY AS WELL AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES
THROUGH.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT REGARDING PRECIP
COVERAGE AND TYPE. THE NAM HAS THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH AND IS MUCH WETTER VERSUS THE OTHER MODELS. THE ECMWF IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAN THE GEM/GFS BUT IS ALSO
FURTHER EAST. WE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOVING IN LATER
FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE A MENTION OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS THAT HAVE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE ARROWHEAD AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
ACROSS IRON/ASHLAND/NORTHERN PRICE COUNTIES. THE ECMWF IS WARMER
THAN THE GFS AND NAM SO THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AS WE REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID FORTIES TO AROUND FIFTY AND
BE FROM 40 TO 50 SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
ADDING TO THE CHILL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE FIFTIES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOCALIZED FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH A PERIOD OF
LIFR IS POSSIBLE AT KDLH THROUGH EARLY MORNING. CURRENT OBS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW LOWERING CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHLAND AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING
OVER THE DAKOTAS. ISOLD -SHRA OR -DZ WILL BE COMMON OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD. MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS...WITH A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTM...WILL LIFT OVER EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
INTO THE KDLH/KHYR AREAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN INTO
THE KDLH AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
FALL OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY WED. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC
BOUNDARY THAT WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  50  61  46 /  70  30  20  60
INL  60  47  60  43 /  20  20  10  60
BRD  61  48  62  41 /  20  20  40  50
HYR  58  52  64  45 /  80  60  60  90
ASX  57  52  63  47 /  80  70  30  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ144>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE






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