Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 130959
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
359 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ARCTIC HIGH STARTS
TODAY ON THE FRIGID SIDE...BUT WARMER AIR IS ON THE WAY. SUNNY TODAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THEN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WARMER AND MOISTURE
AIR RETURNS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED
TOWARDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...JUST 1 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...AS TEMPS
WARM UP TO THE TEENS.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT.
THIS HIGH IS AROUND 1042 MB WHICH IS FAIRLY STRONG...ABOVE THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OR 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL COMPARED TO
CLIMATOLOGY. THE 850MB RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN
TEMPS NOT AS COLD AS YESTERDAY...HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO PERHAPS APPROACHING A BALMY 10 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS..EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY TOWARDS THE EVENING. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
SHOULD WANE THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...THE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD WIN OUT OVER THE LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES...BUT IF NOT THE CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY SHOULD FINALLY PUT AN END TO IT THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST CROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT. THE MAIN VORT MAX WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER AND
TRAVELING EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LARGE-SCALE
LIFT ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP. CLOUDS ARRIVE IN
THE EVENING WITH SNOWFALL DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AFTER
MIDNIGHT...FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE TOWARDS SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WITH JUST LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LOWS NOT AS COLD
UNDER CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...ZERO TO 10 BELOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH AREAS ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EAST OF HIGHWAY 53 MOST LIKELY TO
FALL COLDER /10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO/ DUE TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH PART OF
THE EVENING ALLOWING TEMPS TO RAPIDLY FALL BEFORE CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES LATE.

SUNDAY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY UNDER BROAD LIFT FROM THE WARM
FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGING ACROSS. AREAS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SPECIFICALLY THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS THROUGH THE DAY WITH 2-4 INCHES
EXPECTED THERE AND 1-3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME HIGHER
SNOW TOTALS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT ON A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

SUNDAY NIGHT THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.  STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW GOING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.  TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA...SO WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE DRY... LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES TO BECOME MILD WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT COOL BACK INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S FOR TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS
THE FIRST CHANCE FOR DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING SKIES TO EVEN THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN SOME TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  MODELS ARE GIVING ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO KNOW THAT THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM...BUT THERE ARE STILL
A LOT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING.  ALSO OF CONCERN IS
THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR DRAWN UP INTO THE AREA BY THIS STORM...AS IT
MAY BRING A LONG PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES TO THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THINGS RELATIVELY
SIMPLE AS I ANTICIPATE MAKING MANY CHANGES TO THIS SYSTEM IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATEST TAF
PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO
KBRD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER 06Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  -6  18  12 /   0  20  50  40
INL   5  -3  18  13 /   0  30  50  60
BRD   9   2  21  12 /   0  90 100  40
HYR   9  -4  18  12 /   0  20  60  30
ASX   8  -7  20  12 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>038.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...WL


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