Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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224
FXUS63 KDLH 300536
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1236 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

High pressure covered the forecast area at 19Z with a northeast
wind near Lake Superior. Light and variable wind elsewhere. Cumulus
field covered much of the area with some area of clear skies,
especially near Lake Superior.

The high pressure will cover the region tonight. Models are trying
to bring an upper level short wave trof to the Red River Valley of
the North by 09Z/4am. Models are offering differing solutions on
whether some showers or storms develop and where, including the
short term hires models. Will keep with the status quo and have a
dry forecast tonight. Made some minor adjustments to fog placement.

On Saturday, the surface high remains nearby, over the western Great
Lakes. Meanwhile, the models try to push the short wave trof a bit
farther eastward. There are differences in location of the trof and
associated areas of vorticity drifting over the forecast area. This
results in differing placement of QPF and amounts. Will use a
persistence forecast which leaves the region dry. Humidity values
will increase as warm and moist air begins to impact the area
through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Saturday night and early Sunday appear dry for now. Some of the
models are spitting out some precipitation, but expect these may be
diurnally driven convection that may or may not materialize
depending on the amount of moisture that actually gets up into the
area, and it is unlikely to occur at night.  So, have gone with
effectively dry grids for those times. However, I do have some small
pops over the far western counties ahead of the wave moving in for
Monday.  Temperatures get warmer by a few degrees over Saturday with
highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.

The pattern becomes active next week, especially across Canada with
some fairly large upper lows moving through the flow. These waves
will send some shortwaves in our direction, along with additional
heat and moisture. The first shortwave moves through on Monday,
along with a surface cold front that is dragged through the area.
The latest model trends has this Monday wave moving in a little
slower than it did yesterday, so have adjusted pops accordingly, and
precipitation chances are now highest Monday night.   Another strong
shortwave moves through the area Wednesday-Thursday, sending another
round of showers and thunderstorms through the region.  For now it
appears the highest chances for precip will be on Wednesday night,
but timing with both of these waves can change significantly between
now and then and have kept to chance pops for both waves.
Temperatures remain near to above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Main concern overnight is the possibility of radiation fog
development at KHYR/KHIB. Removed fog mention at KBRD as clouds
have lingered over the site and this should hinder fog
development. After fog dissipates expect VFR conditions through
the forecast with winds less than 10 kts.

The latest forecast guidance suggests showers developing over NE
MN with an upper level trough moving in from the west in
combination with warm air advection. Uncertain on how widespread
this activity will be, so left out of the TAFs for the time being.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  76  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
INL  55  81  58  82 /   0  10  10  10
BRD  54  79  60  80 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  51  78  57  79 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  55  79  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...WL



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