Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 200523 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE FEW SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NW ONTARIO ACROSS LK SUPERIOR..RESULTING IN THE
SURFACE LOW THAT WAS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD EARLIER THIS EVENING
TRANSLATING TO JUST N OF MARQUETTE..WITH NW SURFACE GRADIENT
SLOWLY INCREASING IN ITS WAKE. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT..ALLOWING STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER FAR NRN MN
AND NW ONTARIO TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. THERE
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A FEW TRANSIENT VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MID MORNING MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR IN BOTH MN/WI..BUT THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG DEAL.

MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR MONDAY APPEARS TO BE HOW QUICKLY /IF AT
ALL/ THAT THE STRATUS WILL BE ABLE TO THIN/DISSIPATE. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AN EXTREMELY TIGHT EAST-WEST
TEMP /AND TO A LESSER EXTENT MOISTURE/ GRADIENT ACROSS THE DLH CWA
ON MONDAY WITH +8 850 TEMPS IN THE BRAINERD AREA AND NEAR -2 OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. THUS..WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASINGLY ACQUIRING AN
EAST OF DUE NORTH COMPONENT BY MID AFTERNOON..ITS NOT
INCONCEIVABLE THAT CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR MOST OF THE DAY ALONG
AND EAST OF ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER..SOME LOCAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE IN SUBSIDENCE REGION OF STANDING WAVE THAT
WILL LIKELY SET UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...DRAGGING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM CAME WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AIR
IN THIS AIRMASS AND WE HAVE HAD NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY DRAG SOME STRATUS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF WINNIPEG ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  ALSO HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS UNDER THE CLOUDS...AND WE MAY GET SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO ARRIVE/OR NOT ARRIVE AT ALL.  IN ALL...LOOKING AT MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.  MONDAY THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW IS LIKELY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR SOME FROM THE WEST AS DIURNAL
EFFECTS WORK ON IT.  HIGH TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...BUT 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND TRANSITION EWD
ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECEDED BY A SFC
RIDGE DRAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER PUNCH OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH...AIDED BY A STRONG SLY
FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED MORNING AND
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR IN MN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AREA OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES...WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THUR MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO A
LIGHT EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
AREAS INLAND. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WED THROUGH FRI...WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
ALSO ALLOWED STRATUS TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KBRD AS OF 05Z.  WHILE CEILINGS ARE STILL MVFR..WE EXPECT
THEM TO LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.  MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT.  WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON..WE
SUSPECT THAT WHILE CEILINGS MAY RISE INTO VFR CATEGORY..BROKEN
CEILINGS MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST AT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  49  36  56 /   0   0   0  10
INL  31  53  37  58 /   0   0   0  50
BRD  36  58  38  58 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  31  53  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  34  51  33  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MILLER





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