Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 260915

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
415 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

At 4 am, there was a variety of weather conditions across the
Northland. Areas of fog were found across the region, and there
was some locally dense fog in spots. Temperatures ranged from the
middle 40s to the middle 50s for the most part. On KDLH radar,
there was an area of thunderstorms approaching International
Falls, while another larger area of storms south of the CWA
generally moving to the east.

The models are generally in decent agreement concerning the mass
fields, but some differences were found in the handling of the
various subtle features in terms of sensible weather. The main
focus for today through Friday will be trying to resolve various
precipitation threats. In general, the chances for precipitation
appear to be fairly low for most areas. The best chance for
showers and storms today appears to be in portions of NW WI, as
well as along the International Border region. Dry air is expected
to push in from southwest to northeast during the day, allowing a
good deal of sunshine to develop across the region. High
temperatures should soar into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Could be
a few strong storms, especially in NW WI. Areas of fog will likely
linger near Lake Superior, as well as cooler temperatures.

Tonight, it will be fairly quiet across the Northland during the
evening, but showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase
from the south as a shortwave lifts northeastward in the broad
southwest flow aloft. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be
fairly numerous for the last half of the night, and into Friday as
well. The last day of the work week should be on the wet side due
to moist southerly flow and shortwave energy. Highs will once
again be in the 70s for the most part.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

The wet pattern will continue through most of the long term as
moisture continues to stream into the forecast area.

The entire long range period will be dominated by a long wave
trough. First in the short term, the current wave over the
central U. S. will merge with another one that will be developing
over the Pacific Northwest early next week. As this next system
digs into the central Rockies, another series of short waves will
move across the northland.

While a good portion of the weekend will be stormy the precipitation
chances will be smallest on monday. On saturday the surface low
will be over the upper Midwest saturday and finally pulling out
sunday, making for a stormy weekend. By monday weak high pressure
will be over the region, but will quickly be replaced by low
pressure developing in the high plains. With increased moisture
and warm air advection in the return flow, some showers and
storms could develop mainly in the afternoon.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

An area of convection is expected to affect parts of the northland
through approximately 10z, bringing the potential for TSRA with
ifr conditions to KINL. KHIB and KBRD may also be affected, but
confidence is low and have left out for now. Otherwise, we have an
area of stratus with lifr ceilings draped across KBRD, KDLH and
KHYR, which should spread north to affect KHIB and KINL as well
overnight. The cloud should slowly erode from southwest to
northeast beginning around 14z, and may exit by 20z. After the
clouds erode conditions should return to VFR. Expect additional
thunderstorm development after 18z, but timing and location are
highly uncertain at this time and have left out for now.


DLH  68  52  65  52 /  20  40  60  60
INL  75  48  75  55 /  60  20  50  40
BRD  78  56  74  57 /  20  50  60  60
HYR  81  55  76  58 /  20  50  60  60
ASX  70  49  68  53 /  20  40  60  60


.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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