Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDLH 290903
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
403 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THROUGH
ARROWHEAD TOWARD NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THIS MAIN
AREA AS WELL. MUCH OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB
DEPICTING THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THEY HAVE SUGGESTED THE
CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH QUICKER THAN WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED SO
FAR. WE ARE FINALLY SEEING SIGNS OF THE STORMS WEAKENING...AND WE
THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO MORE STABLE
AIR AND THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. WE DID CARRY A
CHANCE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF MINNESOTA THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
DRY. WE EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO AROUND EIGHTY.

RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY
EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 90. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES
TODAY AND SUNDAY MAKING IT FEEL MUGGY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK LEADING
TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH...AND WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST LOCALLY MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT BY LAKE SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS BUT GENERALLY LOW EACH DAY.
WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE AND STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. AM A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC ON THE STORM
CHANCES...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED THERMODYNAMICS CANNOT RULE OUT CHANCES
MOST DAYS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO...AND
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA COULD MOVE INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THOUGH
ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK. LATE IN THE
WEEK...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

IN CONCLUSION...THE MILD SUMMER OF 2015 CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...PERHAPS WITH A BIT MORE HUMIDITY THAN MOST WOULD
LIKE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB TO NEAR 70. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
STORMS EACH DAY...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AT INL...THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE SITE THROUGH 08Z WITH MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT...THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL BE VFR WITH MVFR FOG EXPECTED AROUND 09Z TO 12Z.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...IT WILL BE VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  62  84  63 /  30   0   0   0
INL  81  62  90  63 /  10   0   0  10
BRD  82  62  86  65 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  76  59  82  62 /  30   0   0   0
ASX  79  59  85  62 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.