Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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188
FXUS63 KDLH 180851 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
351 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM  CDT MON MAY 18 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WAS CENTERED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WINDY CONDITIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WERE OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WHERE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 HAD FALLEN FROM THE MID 50S OF YESTERDAY
MORNING. THAT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE COVERING THE
NORTHLAND TODAY...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST WILL BE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH 8H TEMPS IN THE TEENS FALLING TO -8C TO -10C
OVERNIGHT. THIS VERY COLD LAYER WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE
RATES...WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS COLD LAYER WILL THICKEN TO ABOUT A 800 MB WITH A MUCH WARMER
LAYER ALOFT TONIGHT...BUT THE COLD LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SNOW SNOW CRYSTALS...MEANING SNOW IN THE FORECAST. WITH
THE VERY WET GROUND...DO NOT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. BUT LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE NEAR THE WI/MI BORDER.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM  CDT MON MAY 18 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH MOST OF THE REGION SEEING
LOWS BELOW FREEZING. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGHS FROM 60 TO 65.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...UPPER SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE ARE LACKING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE SIXTIES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE GFS
DEEPER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS
THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN ITS RUN 12 HOURS
AGO...WITH THE GFS A BIT MORE CONSISTENT. AT THIS TIME WE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE GFS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO IFR WITH REGARD
TO CIGS AND VSBYS. SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
SOUTHERN SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT KINL. OVERALL THE WINDS WILL CHANGE TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND THEY WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. CIGS/VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AND
ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING...WHEN MVFR TO VFR IS EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  30  52  33 /  60  20  10   0
INL  37  29  52  29 /  80  40  10   0
BRD  41  32  55  33 /  60  10   0   0
HYR  45  31  52  28 /  30  20  10   0
ASX  47  33  50  31 /  40  30  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...DAP








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