Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 302343
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
643 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

The Northland will be in between the low pressure system slowly
lifting northeastward into the southern Great Lakes region through
tomorrow and the surface high pressure ridge building across
Ontario and Lake Superior. This will result in a continuation of
east/northeast winds tonight and Friday in most areas, along with
a slow drying trend.  The primary forcing for ascent will remain
to our southeast, and therefore, any chances of appreciable
precipitation have ended across northwest Wisconsin.

Some areas of fog are possible tonight with light winds in most
inland areas and strong radiational cooling. Some of the hi-res
models also suggest that a brief period of clouds and higher
humidity will surge inland from Lake Superior later tonight and
persist for some of Friday morning. However, we expect clouds to
mix out on Friday. With long east fetches and land/water
differential heating, there should be a moderate lake breeze set
up again Friday, resulting in high temps occurring midday near the
big lake, with increasing on shore east/northeast winds and cooler
temps pushing inland as the afternoon progresses.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

A shortwave trough will dig across Ontario on Saturday. This will
bring increasing clouds Friday evening and Saturday morning. In
addition, this will bring slight chances of a wintry mix quickly
becoming all rain along the International Border on Saturday. Behind
the shortwave, a ridge of high pressure will build in bringing
clearing skies during the afternoon.

The best chance of precipitation in the extended is on Sunday into
Monday morning, when a negative/neutrally tilted trough digs and
deepens as it moves from the Pacific Northwest on Saturday into the
Northern Plains/Central Canada on Sunday. This will bring rain to
the Northland spreading in from southwest to northeast as the day
progresses. Rainfall will continue into the evening, with
precipitation gradually changing over to a mix of rain/snow
across much of the Northland during the early morning hours on
Monday. Expect locations in the Minnesota Arrowhead to switch over
to all snow, but little to no accumulation is expected before
precipitation changes back over to all rain Monday morning.

Will remain dry on Tuesday, but stuck between systems. The
previously mentioned trough will be lifting northeastward through
the Central Great Lakes, while another digs into the Central Plains.
The trough in the Central Plains will bring chances of precipitation
on Wednesday into Thursday. At this point guidance is still
uncertain on the strength and where the surface low develops in
association with the upper trough. The GEM is the furthest south at
this point, which would bring little to no precipitation. The
GFS/ECWMF are similar with the track being slightly further north,
which would bring precipitation to portions of northwest Wisconsin.

High temperatures will remain in the 40`s along the Lake Superior
Shoreline through the extended with readings in the 50`s across
inland locations. Low temperatures will be in the 30`s throughout
the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

VFR at all sites overnight with MVFR conditons possible at HYR and
HIB due to gog in the early morning. It will be VFR at all sites
by mid-morning Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  48  33  52 /   0   0   0  10
INL  28  55  33  50 /   0   0  20  20
BRD  30  56  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  30  50  29  58 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  29  47  30  51 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Friday for LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...Stewart



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