Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 221814
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
114 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Updated for the latest 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Main concerns during the short-term are high temperatures today
and thunderstorms returning to the Northland on Saturday.

Southerly return flow is forecast across the Northland today
ahead of a developing storm system in the Rockies. Fire danger
concerns are lower today thanks to the increasing boundary layer
moisture transport. Temperatures will trend warmer with highs in
the upper 60s in northeast Minnesota, to the middle 70s in north-
central Minnesota, to near 80 degrees in the St. Croix River
valley.

Clouds will begin filling in across the area this evening and
rain chances gradually build from the south overnight. There could
be a few rumbles of thunder during the early morning hours over
central Minnesota. Northward moisture transport continues into
Saturday with precipitable water values climbing into the 1 to 1.5
inch range. The 20.00Z GFS features PW of 1.4 inches at INL by
00Z Sunday which would be a record value for the date and time
(previous max for the day is 1.22 inches). A sharp cool front will
move into Minnesota Saturday morning and advance into the CWA by
late afternoon. Instability will be on the increase through the
day with MLCAPE of 500-1250 J/kg forecast across our south by late
afternoon. Deep layer shear of 30 to 35 knots will be sufficient
for organized convection and the SPC has highlighted the St. Croix
River valley and much of northwest Wisconsin in a Marginal Risk
of severe storms. A few storms could produce large hail and
damaging wind gusts. Thunderstorms will have ample moisture for
locally heavy rainfall, as well. We`ve had a decent stretch of dry
weather, but soil moisture analysis indicates much of the recent
rain remains in place, which may lead to very localized ponding of
water in low-lying locales. With the increase in cloud cover,
highs will be a bit cooler, but still above average for late
October with readings in the low to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Upper level flow remains troughy all week which will usher in a
variety of weak systems with Tuesday being the only dry day.
Wednesday night into Thursday morning may also be dry. Otherwise
cool systems dominate with chances for light snow and rain/snow
mixes throughout the week. Light snow accumulations are possible
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

An organized system is expected Thursday into Saturday. Both the
GFS and Euro develop a system in the Great Lakes region, but due
to inconsistencies in the location of the parent low many
different scenarios could play out. The 00Z Euro gives the
arrowhead of Minnesota a decent shot of snow while the 00Z GFS has
the snowfall more towards Green Bay. Both models have a sharp and
deep upper level trough that pinwheels vort maxes around the
trough it just depends on where everything sets up which attm is
not very clear, but does bear watching so will highlight in the
HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

High clouds are moving out of the region to the east, and sunny
skies are expected for much of the afternoon with breezy westerly
flow. The winds will weaken this evening, but a strong low-level
jet of about 35 to 45 knots will develop tonight. Expect a period
of significant low-level wind shear overnight.

A weak Alberta Clipper will track east near the Canadian border
tonight and Monday. Cloud cover will begin spreading in from the
west overnight with some showers across northern Minnesota. The
VFR should continue through most of tomorrow morning, expect the
Clipper`s passing cold front Monday morning will bring lowering
ceilings from the northwest later in the morning. The KINL area
will probably get MVFR ceilings by the late morning. Expect cold
air to pour into the region, making for gusty winds, cloudy skies,
and showers through the rest of Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  43  55  35 /   0  20  40  30
INL  57  43  51  30 /   0  40  60  20
BRD  59  45  54  34 /   0  20  50  10
HYR  58  43  58  36 /   0  20  20  30
ASX  59  44  59  38 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ146-
     147.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...Wolfe
AVIATION...Grochocinski


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