Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 011753 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1253 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN US WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE
CENTRAL US...AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE NORTHLAND. THE HIGH OVER THE LAKE WILL
CAUSE COOL EAST TO NE FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SO AREAS
CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN AREAS
FARTHER INLAND. MUCH OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY...BUT THE SW FORECAST PERIOD MIGHT HAVE A PERIOD OF
CLOUDIER SKIES THIS MORNING AS A LARGE AREA OF OVERCAST MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WOULD THINK THIS BAND WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
INLAND.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A 25 TO 35 KNOT SSW LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHLAND. SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN RECENT NIGHTS...AND THIS WILL BOLSTER THE
TEMPERATURES AND PUT AN END TO THE FROST THREAT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...AND EVEN LOW 50S IN THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PCPN IN THE FAR NW FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE MODELS DO
NOT HAVE ANY CAPE WITH THIS PCPN...SO ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY.

TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS...AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL STRETCH TO THE NE THROUGH
SE MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT MUCH WARMER
WEATHER AS BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. ALSO...THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH SHORE. THE GFS
AND NAM12 BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH...PEAKING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THERE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AFFECTING THE
FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE PCPN FARTHER WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY THAT
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING COULD DEVELOP BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE NORTH SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S OVER THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

STRONG RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF RETREATING HIGH WILL SIGNAL
THE CHANGE TO A WARMER...MORE HUMID AND STORMY PERIOD. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FEATURE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW....THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHLAND. BY TUESDAY MORNING
THE LOW WILL BE ENTERING THE DAKOTAS...THEN MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA
ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO NORTHERN WI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN IN THE FAR WEST SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...BUT THEN SLOWS DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN WI ON THURSDAY.
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STRONG 40 KT
LOLVL JET AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION.
MUCAPES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 1500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH
THURSDAY. FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER AND SHOWERY WITH
A BROAD EASTERLY FLOW. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING A BRIEF
RESPITE FROM THE RAINY WEATHER ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN ON SUNDAY
THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL TAKE OVER AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF
DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT HIB/INL/BRD THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MID-ALTITUDE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-AIR TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS IN
THE 8KFT TO 12KFT RANGE ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT AND WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD AT INL/HIB/BRD
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  43  70  51 /   0   0   0  40
INL  69  51  75  53 /   0  10  20  60
BRD  66  52  72  58 /   0   0  10  50
HYR  67  44  71  52 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  62  42  74  50 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ143>146.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...HUYCK






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