Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 242358 AAA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
658 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Updated aviation discussion below for the 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

An upper low centered over southeast Montana and northern Wyoming will
move into the Northern Plains tonight. As this occurs, a cold
front will move east into western Minnesota by 12Z Sunday. Deep
southerly flow will draw copious amounts of moisture into the
region with PWAT values rising to 1.5 to 1.75 inches. These values
are near or above whats been measured in the past at both KINL and
KMPX. The upper wave and continued warm air and moisture advection
will cause showers and storms to increase in coverage tonight,
especially late tonight. Localized heavy rain will be a threat
given the high moisture and multiple storms tracking over the same
area with storm motions south/southwest. However, the forcing will
be progressive and be a limiting factor for widespread heavy rain.
Local rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be possible.

Showers/storms will be ongoing Sunday morning over the eastern half
of the Northland with coverage decreasing there through the day.
There could be a narrow area of instability that develops Sunday
afternoon just ahead of the cold front over far eastern Minnesota
and northwest Wisconsin. If enough clearing occurs for this to
happen, there could be some strong thunderstorms that form. Further
west, showers will expand in the afternoon on the backside of the
surface low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Synoptically the extended begins with a trough digging into the
central Great Lakes and cutting off by late on Monday. This feature
will slowly rotate around the central Great Lakes on Tuesday and
into the eastern Great Lakes by late Wednesday. Good agreement
between the latest GFS/ECMWF/NAM on the progression of this feature.
This will bring rain showers across much of the Northland on Monday
With the stacked system just to the northeast of the CWA, expect
breezy northwest winds sustained around 15 to 20 mph with gusts of
30 to 35 mph. Temperatures will be in the 50s across the region.

Still expect breezy conditions on Tuesday, but winds will be
sustained around 10 to 15 mph as the stacked system moves further to
the east. Precipitation chances will gradually decrease from west to
east as the day progresses Tuesday. Along with the decreasing
precipitation chances, expect cloud cover to gradually decrease as
high pressure builds in from the northwest. Highs on Tuesday range
from the low 50s in the MN Arrowhead to the low 60s in the Brainerd
Lakes Region.

Will continue to see a warming trend as the week progresses and
heading into the weekend as a ridge develops over the Plains. By the
end of the week expect high temperatures to be around 70 degrees.
Expect dry conditions through the middle and late in the week. The
next chance of precipitation comes late on Friday and into Saturday
as a warm front lifts into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Widespread MVFR/IFR flight conditions are likely to persist for
most of this TAF period with persistent low stratus and fog in the
vicinity of a warm front that bisects the area. The next round of
showers and TStorms will move northeastward across the terminals
overnight, bringing a 2-4 hour period of potential thunder. Low
level wind shear has also been introduced for KDLH/KHYR where
surface winds are expected to hold a southeast component with a
south-southwest low level jet developing just atop the surface
stable layer by 04-05z. Some improvement is possible after 16z
Sunday as winds turn to the southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  69  48  57 /  80  70  50  40
INL  59  67  48  55 /  80  70  70  40
BRD  59  64  47  59 /  80  40  40  20
HYR  60  70  48  56 /  80  80  50  40
ASX  58  71  51  58 /  70  80  50  50

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...None.
&&

$$


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