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000
FXUS63 KDLH 271720 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A SFC TROF WAS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE FA AT 14Z. NW WINDS WERE
OCCURRING S OF THE FRONT AND N TO NE TO THE N OF THE FRONT.
SHOWERS WERE FOUND OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND NW WI...BUT MORE SPOTTY
ELSEWHERE. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE HEADING
TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GRADUAL
CLEARING AND ENDING THE SHOWERS FROM N TO S. REST OF THE FORECAST
IN THE BALLPARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATED TO REMOVE PRE-FIRST PERIOD. ADJUSTED LIKELY POPS BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR AND FUTURE TRENDS. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE PRECIP TODAY.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN NE MN. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER THE NC MN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO BORDER NEAR INL. MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATER THIS MORNING AS IT DEVELOPS INTO A
LONG WAVE TROUGH. IT WILL BE IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT.
ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. RAIN WILL BE OFF AND ON TODAY ACROSS NE MN
AND NW WI WITH THE PRECIP ENDING IN THE WEST BY MIDDAY. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND DLH BY 218Z AND OUT OF NW WI BY
00Z. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BELOW THEIR NORMALS.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...DRIER CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH
TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC AS OF MONDAY EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH LIGHT NW FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY...BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS PATTERN MIGHT NOT BREAK UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL RETREAT NORTH
TOWARDS THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY...AND THAT A WEAK BUT LARGE
RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN US UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIGHTLY
SHIFT INTO THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST. THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY SEE DRY
AND WARM WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF FOG REMAINING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES WITH TRAILING RAIN SHOWERS EVENTUALLY
TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM N TO S ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND. N/NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 20
KT WILL DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE NNW TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN TO AROUND 10 KT FROM THE NW LATE MON MORNING. MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF MORNING FOG AROUND HYR...WHERE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AROUND HYR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  54  75  55 /  70  10  10  10
INL  72  50  75  52 /  60  10  10  10
BRD  72  53  74  54 /  40  10   0   0
HYR  69  47  74  52 /  70  10  10  10
ASX  69  50  75  53 /  70  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...BJT