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000
FXUS63 KDLH 071141 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
541 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS ON THE ONGOING MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH FREEZING RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN. AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM A CENTER IN FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WELL SOUTHWEST INTO COLORADO. A COLD FRONT ALSO
STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA. RADAR SHOWED
THE STRONGEST RETURNS AT 330 AM FROM NEAR HAYWARD/CLAM LAKE WEST TO
JUST SOUTH OF AITKIN/BRAINERD. LOWER/MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING WAS AIDING
IN THE FORCING FOR THE PRECIP. KDLH CC SHOWED MAINLY SNOW WAS
OCCURRING WITH THE PRECIP NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 WITH A MIXTURE SOUTH.
FREEZING RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW OR SLEET WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE ALSO SUPPORT SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER NORTHERN ZONES AS TOP DOWN DRYING OCCURS AND WE LOSE
ICE CRYSTALS. WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
FOR NOW. WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP IT EARLY OVER PORTIONS OF OUR
WEST...FROM KBRD/KAIT NORTH TO KINL/KCDD IN A COUPLE MORE HOURS.
THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HIGH RES WRF RUNS SHOW THE PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OF IT DONE OR
JUST SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP AFTER 15Z.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT A THERMAL TROUGH AND PASSING
SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
STRATOCU UNTIL EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OFF MILD
WITH MOST AREAS STILL IN THE MID TWENTIES AS OF 3 AM. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID THIRTIES OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...TO 25
TO 30 OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO OVER MUCH OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES...BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND ICE COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TWENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN THE GENERAL
THEME OF A MEANDERING NRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES. THE RESULT IS A
CHANGEABLE CHARACTER TO THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIP FORECAST. A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A BUILDING MID
LVL RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A
TEMPORARY SHIFT IN THE UPPER PATTERN WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED NWRLY
FLOW TUES/EARLY WED. AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS OCCURS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WED NIGHT/THUR. GIVEN THE MULTITUDE OF
SWINGS IN THE MASS/THERMAL FIELDS AND THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SYSTEMS THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASING ERRORS IN FCST OF PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT AND TYPES. OVERALL THE MDL MOISTURE FIELDS AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER A WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA SAT EVENING AHEAD OF A SFC LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO.
PRESENT THINKING IS THAT DEEP LAYER SATURATION IS NOT SUFFICIENT
TO GENERATE ORGANIZED PRECIP EXCEPT POSSIBLY NEAR INTL BORDER.
A WARM DAY SUNDAY WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO IN MANY AREAS AND
SUSPICION WE MAY NEED TO TREND EVEN HIGHER BASED ON EC BC VALUES.
SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO DROPS INTO UP MICH BY LATE SUNDAY DRAGGING
A WEAK BDRY INTO THE CWA. THIS BDRY IS THEN ACTED UPON SUNDAY
NIGHT BY NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM IN ONTARIO. PTYPES MAY BE
ASSORTED IF PRECIP OCCURS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN ACTUAL
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER WARM DAY MONDAY AS CWA RESIDES IN
RELATIVE WARM SECTOR OF AN EASTWARD MOVING SFC LOW IN ONTARIO.
AGAIN MAX TEMPS MAY TREND HIGHER IN LATER UPDATES BASED ON LOW LVL
THERMAL FIELDS. A FRONTAL BDRY SHOULD DROP SOUTH MONDAY EVENING
WITH MUCH COOLER AIR RETURNING TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. LIGHT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL
OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE AREA BY THAT
TIME. MDLS HAVE DIVERGED CONSIDERABLY WITH EC MAINTAINING AN
INTENSE SFC LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHILE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTH AND MUCH WEAKER. GEM IS IN BETWEEN SO NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

SFC LOW/FRONTAL BDRY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING.
LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDDAY AT KINL/KBRD.....KHIB/KDLH
BY MID TO LATE AFTN...AND KHYR EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS MIXING LAYER DEEPENS IN POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32   2  26  11 /  40  10   0  10
INL  26  -6  22   9 /  30  10  10  10
BRD  29  -3  25  11 /  30   0   0   0
HYR  34   3  28   9 /  80  10   0  10
ASX  35   4  28  11 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON