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000
FXUS63 KDLH 240351
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
951 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING OVER NE MN AT 0345Z. SFC
TEMPS UNDER THE RAIN WAS IN THE UPPER 30S. ONCE THIS BATCH OF RAIN
ENDS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS YET TONIGHT
OVER THE ARROWHEAD. REMOVED ALL MENTIONS OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF HAS EXITED THE FA ALLOWING FOR A LARGE AREA OF
NVA TO DRIFT OVERHEAD. THERE IS A COLD FRONT JUST N OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT 01Z. THIS FRONT WILL CLIP THE ARROWHEAD
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BEFORE BECOMING ALL SNOW AGAIN. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WEATHER/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER FAR NE MN AND NORTH CENTRAL
WI...WITH AN EXPANSION OF SNOW AND PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

A WEAK TRAILING SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING FROM SE MANITOBA INTO
WRN ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SEWD ACROSS NERN MN AND THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WEAK SFC FEATURE WILL
COMBINE WITH GRADUALLY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT DUE TO CAA AND
BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO PRODUCE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE P-TYPE
WILL OF COURSE BE DEPENDENT ON LOW-LEVEL AND SFC TEMPS. CURRENTLY
THERE ARE SCATTERED REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SNOW OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. THE DRIZZLE/RAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO TAKE OVER AND CHANGE THE PRECIP
OVER TO SNOW AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

PRECIPITATION AMTS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
START TO COME TOGETHER DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS IN
FROM THE NW. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER N-CENTRAL MN AND TRACK TO THE SE GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
IN NRN WI WHERE THE CAA OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM AND OPEN LAKE
WILL PRODUCE WEAKLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
850MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND -10 DEG C IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ALLOW BL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN SLIGHTLY. THE DEPTH OF THE BL WILL
RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND HINDER THE PRODUCTION OF LES. SO...NOT TOO
EXCITED ABOUT LES AT THIS TIME...COULD BE AROUND AN INCH OR SO.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOWS
TONIGHT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW RISING INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST THROUGH THE
DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THREE SYSTEMS OF NOTE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...ONE A DEEPENING CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
LATE THIS WEEKEND...THE SECOND ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND THE THIRD A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOUTHWARD TREND
IN THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...WHICH MEANS THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS
COULD BE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SNOWFALL FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS LIKELY SOUTH OF A BEMIDJI TO HAYWARD LINE. SNOWFALL WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING.

LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A CLASSIC CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL BRING A TYPICAL ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
SNOWFALL AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE VERTICAL COLUMN WILL BE
SATURATED WITH GOOD LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS
STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE IN THE TWIN PORTS AND
ELSEWHERE...WITH SNOWFALL TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

TUES/WED...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND LEAD TO
ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 30S BOTH DAYS.
CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND MOST OF THE TIME...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THE SUN COULD BREAK OUT IN A FEW SPOTS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATE WED/THURS...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT
CROSSES THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES TOWARDS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTH AND INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE STILL SOME MAJOR MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...WITH THE GEM BEING PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE ABOUT
THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
TEMPERATURES DIVING DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT BRD WHERE VFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR UNTIL 05Z.
SOME FLURRIES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TIME TO TIME. IFR IS FORECAST
FOR BRD AT 22Z AHEAD OF SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  33  16  20 /  10  20  70  30
INL  25  25   6  20 /  10  20  30  20
BRD  27  33  23  25 /   0  30  70  30
HYR  31  34  18  23 /  10  30  70  20
ASX  32  33  18  21 /  10  20  60  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF