Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

FXUS63 KDLH 150521

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1221 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

The Northland will continue to get breezy southerly flow through
tonight as an area of low pressure in south central Canada moves
east through southern Saskatchewan and into Manitoba. Its cold
front will also move into the northern Plains and begin to
approach northeast Minnesota early Saturday.

Low-level stratus has been advecting northward from Iowa into
southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin today, and is expected
to surge northward into the Northland this evening. By later this
evening or the wee hours of the morning, much of eastern and
central parts of the Northland should be under an overcast stratus
layer, while broken/overcast upper-level cloud cover will spread
over the Northland due to the approaching low pressure. The
extensive cloud cover, increasing dew point temperatures, and
breezy winds will combine to bolster the overnight temperatures.
Overnight lows should only be in the middle to lower 50s.

Some models are indicating the stratus layer may be thick enough
to produce some very light drizzle overnight into Saturday
morning, including the NAM, SREF, WRF ARW and NMM, and GFS. Kept
some chances for drizzle, with the higher chances Saturday

The cold front will work its way through northeast Minnesota
Saturday morning and afternoon, which will also help to produce
some light rain near and ahead of the front. The front will begin
approaching northwest Wisconsin Saturday afternoon. The NAM and
SREF are suggesting there could be enough elevated instability to
create some thunder across parts of northwest Wisconsin in the
afternoon, especially if there are any shortwaves that lift
through the area, a possibility.

Meanwhile, it looks like skies will clear in the wake of the
passing front during the afternoon, so some of the warmest
temperatures should be across the west due to afternoon sunshine.
Highs will range from the lower to middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

The main concerns for the long range are precipitation chances
Sunday night through Tuesday morning and subsequent cool down next

Deterministic guidance is in relatively good agreement with
departing shortwave trough Saturday evening. The general consensus
shows this feature stretching from far northwest Ontario southwest
into central Minnesota. This progressive feature will quickly
advance eastward to northeast Ontario through eastern Upper
Michigan and eastern Wisconsin by 06Z. Precipitation should end
quickly Saturday evening with only low chance POPs lingering after
16.00Z over my southeastern-most zones.

The break will be short-lived as sharp ridging quickly gives way
to the next approaching shortwave on Sunday. Lee cyclogenesis will
accompany the trough as it crosses the Canadian Rockies. Surface
low pressure is forecast to develop over southern Alberta, and
move eastward into southern Saskatchewan by Sunday evening. A
nascent warm front will move northeast across the Plains and into
the Upper Midwest by early Sunday afternoon. Showers will be
possible along and north of the boundary as it moves into northern
Minnesota, mainly affecting my far northwest areas by 17.00Z. The
low will begin to occlude Sunday night as a cold front marches
across the Dakotas and into western Minnesota Sunday night into
Monday. Rain chances quickly increase as the cold front approaches
Sunday night and early Monday. Continued thunder mentions along
the southern extent of the cold front.

The cold front will stall over Wisconsin, southern Minnesota, and
southern South Dakota Monday evening. Another shortwave trough
will move across the Rockies along the southern periphery of the
stalled upper low over the Canadian Prairies. A compact surface
low should develop Monday evening in the western Dakotas and track
eastward overnight, lifting the boundary northward once again as a
warm front. Another round of showers and thunderstorms seems
likely for portions of the Upper Midwest as that system moves
through late Monday night and Tuesday.

The smaller shortwave should be sufficient to kick the stagnant
upper low eastward Tuesday night and Wednesday with quasi-zonal
flow developing. Deterministic solutions diverge once again late
next week with the ECMWF and GEM featuring a progressive longwave
trough moving through the region, while the GFS establishes a
split-flow regime with a cutoff low near the Four Corners.
Confidence in sensible weather diminishes quickly with the drastic
split in solutions. The progressive trough would continue the
trend toward unsettled weather for the latter half of the week,
while the cutoff upper low would keep a stout ridge of high
pressure parked over Ontario and the Upper Midwest.

Temperatures will trend near to much above normal across the
Northland Sunday through Tuesday, trending near to slightly below
normal behind the third system on Tuesday night. The change may
not be especially noteworthy since minimum temperatures will trend
as much as 20 degrees above average for middle October Saturday
night through Monday night, before trending cooler Tuesday night
through the end of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Ceilings will gradually lower across the forecast area through the
night, with widespread IFR/LIFR conditiions and drizzle around
daybreak. Opted to remove low level wind shear at all terminals
as the strong pressure gradient has kept gusty winds. Kept the low
level wind shear mention at KINL as winds have decoupled and there
is a 35-40 knot SW winds found around 2000 ft.

A cold front will track across northeast Minnesota Saturday. The
frontal passage will result in a wind shift to the west/northwest
and improving ceilings for the Minnesota terminals through the
afternoon. The front and associated drier air will finally reach
northern Wisconsin, including the KHYR terminal, Saturday night.


DLH  55  65  44  60 /  40  40   0  10
INL  50  64  39  58 /  10  10   0  20
BRD  56  68  44  64 /  20  10   0  10
HYR  57  66  44  66 /  40  40  10  10
ASX  58  66  47  63 /  10  30  10   0


.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for



SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Graning/WL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.