Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDLH 221730
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1230 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BAND OF ACCAS EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY FROM JUST SOUTH OF KPWC TO
SRN PART OF STATE...ADVECTING EAST. RAP13 SHOWS THIS ARE ALIGNED
WELL WITH 85H DEWPOINT AXIS OF 8C/10C. 88D KMPX SHOWS A LINE OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
DIMINISHED. NO LTG STRIKES ATTM AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO HAS OCCURRED
WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND. LATEST FCST RAP13 AND HRRR SIM REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCT INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR WITH THIS AREA AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST TODAY. 85H 10C DEWPOINT AXIS DOES EXTEND RAPIDLY
NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF WRN CWA BY 18Z...AND WRN/CTRL CWA BY 21Z.
FCST UNSTABLE LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN SOUTH OF CWA TODAY SO
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION WITH SOME SLIGHT INTREPIDATION.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON
MORNING 925 TEMPS/ADVECTION....AND INCREASED GUSTS BASED ON VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH IN WRN CWA. OTHERWISE MAIN PRECIP
EVENT STILL FCST TO SWEEP OVER AREA TONIGHT/EARLY THUR MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER NE
MN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MOST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY THUR
MORNING. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY S/SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION N/NEWD INTO
NRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS BEING SQUEEZED BY A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE NEXT INCOMING S/W ROLLING IN ACROSS
THE NRN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC AN INVERTED RIDGE
FROM ERN QUEBEC EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WRN OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
DRAGGING EWD SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND ALLOWING THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT TODAY COMBINED
WITH BL MIXING WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS PRECEDING THE FROPA WILL ATTEMPT TO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100 J/KG AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE NOSE OF MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW WEAK STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...THE BROAD LARGE SCALE
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY FALL
OFF AND HINDER ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THUR MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR THUR AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WITH RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD LATER IN THE DAY
THUR.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER AREAS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH. THIS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY FOR
MOST AREAS. CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 40S. ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR TO THE WEST
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. AREAS TO
THE EAST WILL RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUSTY SFC WINDS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH VFR. AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR BUT TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE IN QUESTION AND MADE FEW
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. LLWS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 01Z AND 09Z AS LLJ PASSES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN
THE VCNTY OF SHOWERS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  46  60  44 /  20  70  20  10
INL  58  47  61  39 /  50  70  10   0
BRD  58  47  65  40 /  40  70  10   0
HYR  56  45  55  41 /  20  70  50  10
ASX  57  45  55  42 /  20  70  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.