Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 242346
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
646 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH IT
HEAVY IN SPOTS. WE UPGRADED COASTAL LAKE COUNTY TO WARNING. AN
OBSERVER NEAR FINLAND CALLED WITH 4.5 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR...AND
IT WAS COMING DOWN AT AN INCH PER HOUR. IT SHOULD SNOW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AT VARYING INTENSITY.

FEW OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AT 330 AM A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER CONDITIONS WAS FOUND ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND. MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW HAD FALLEN AT THE DULUTH
AIRPORT AS WELL AS AT WOLF RIDGE ENVIRONMENTAL LEARNING CENTER
NEAR FINLAND MINNESOTA. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE AMOUNTS INCREASE
FAIRLY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD...WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING IN THE SOUTH. SOME RAIN WAS MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW OR
EVEN FALLING AS ALL SNOW AT SOME INLAND LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW FOR MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. STILL LOOKING LIKE A GOOD FOOT OF
SNOW...GIVE OR TAKE...FOR THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD INCLUDING THE
GUNFLINT TRAIL. IN THE DULUTH AREA WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING FOR 3
TO 5 INCHES...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE LAKE AND IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE DUE TO THE MIX
OF PRECIPITATION AND CHANGE OF PTYPE.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...BUT THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
CANADA WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.  SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH BELOW TEMPS.  A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH SD AND IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE WITH TEMPS NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY.  THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SOUTH
AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS.
THE LOW CENTER DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE WEEK
WHICH WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN NW WI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER THIS
MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A MIX OF SNOW OR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL DIMINISH IN LATER TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BUT CONTINUE
ALL NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

FOG WILL ALSO FORM IN SPOTS...AND KEEP VSBYS REDUCED.

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  47  28  40 / 100  40  20  10
INL  32  46  27  46 / 100  50  10  10
BRD  33  55  31  49 /  50  20  10  10
HYR  32  52  29  49 /  90  20  10  10
ASX  32  46  28  41 / 100  40  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ010-011-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ012-020-021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR MNZ037.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE






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