Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 072354 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
654 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER TODAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TIME
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO GET DOWN AROUND 40...AND MAINLY LOW TO MID
40S ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE NORMAL COOL SPOTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
CLOSE TO IF NOT JUST BELOW 40. WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE SLIDES FAR
ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO ALLOW WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO FLOW INTO
THE AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT TO SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE WE WILL JUST HAVE WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES. MAX TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A WEAK SFC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER S/W WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE
RAINFALL AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE THUR AND FRI TO KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET. THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...BUT BE PUSHING INTO A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...WHICH WILL INHIBIT THE AMT OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIP. PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN HOTTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NW WISCONSIN MOVES
EASTWARD AND ALLOWS SW/S RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
WED AT MOST TERMINALS. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE
LARGE PLUME OF RATHER DENSE SMOKE EVIDENT IN VIZ SAT IMAGERY FROM
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO THE BRAINERD AND PINE COUNTY AREAS THAT
IS SLOWLY ADVECTING BACK NORTHWARD AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THINGS ARE LIKELY TO GET SOMEWHAT HAZY AS THIS
PLUME DRIFTS ACROSS ALL THE DLH TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS..BUT THUS FAR SURFACE VSBY RESTRICTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN NOTED
UPSTREAM..SO WE HAVE LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW. HOWEVER..WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF VSBYS COME
DOWN INTO THE 4-6 MILE RANGE AT SOME POINT. WEAK IMPULSE WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON WED..BRINGING SMALL
CHANCES FOR TSRA..AND WE INTRODUCED A VICINITY THUNDER AT KINL
AFTER 19Z WED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  74  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
INL  47  74  53  77 /   0  20  20   0
BRD  50  76  56  79 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  42  75  54  77 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  46  75  55  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WFO DLH



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