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000
FXUS63 KDLH 151522
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1022 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...

THE FOCUS TODAY REMAINS ON THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT...ESPECIALLY
DUE TO THE ONGOING WILDFIRES WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT
REPORTS FROM THE WISCONSIN DNR INDICATE THE VERY LARGE FIRE IN
DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD COUNTIES IS MOSTLY CONTAINED...BUT WE MUST
REMAIN DILIGENT WITH WEATHER THAN COULD EXACERBATE THE SITUATION.

RECENT NAM12/HRRR/SREF MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH
THE CURRENT BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF
MANITOBA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS
TODAY...I THINK MOST OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE SPRINKLES/VIRGA...BUT
THE SPRINKLES/VIRGA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. I
GAVE NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA PERIODS OF SCATTERED
SPRINKLES AND TIMED IT TO THE HOUR BASED ON SREF/HRRR TIMING. I AM
NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THE THREAT OF THUNDER. THE MODELS INDICATE
VERY LITTLE CAPE. I LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT I MAY
NEED TO ADD THUNDER LATER TODAY.

I ALSO INCREASED WIND GUSTS A BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD.
THE DLHWRF MODEL AND NAM12 SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR 30
TO 35 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ARROWHEAD.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKED FAIRLY GOOD...BUT I MAY HAVE
INCREASED THE FORECAST BY 1 OR 2 DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST
BLEND OF MOS AND MODELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY...AND BE STRONGEST OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. DEEP
MIXING WILL OCCUR TODAY.

THE NAM AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH
THEM MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE
DRY...SO SOME OF THESE MAY END UP BEING JUST VIRGA. ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS THOUGH COULD PRODUCE SOME ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS DUE TO
THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF THESE SHOWERS
ALREADY IN SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING AND SKIES CLEAR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY
AND GUSTY DAY IN THE NORTHLAND WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
70S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP MIXING TO 7-8 KFT THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR LOW DEW POINTS AND GUSTY WINDS TO MIX DOWN.
EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE NOON HOUR. THE LOWEST RH VALUES...IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

AS TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY 20-25 MPH
IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SUPERIOR NATIONAL
FOREST IN FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WHERE STRONGER GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH ARE EXPECTED. A READ FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE AND
COOK COUNTIES TODAY.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS WILL BE VERY DRY...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED
SPRINKLES/VIRGA TO MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND A FEW
HUNDRED JULES OF CAPE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL BE
ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL MIX DOWN...AS ANY RAIN WILL
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.

FOR THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH...WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 139 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
THE WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR GUSTS FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...BUT
WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THERE COULD
ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS A WEAK SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHOWERS.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  73  47  66  43 /  10  10   0  10
INL  72  41  70  45 /  10  10   0  20
BRD  77  48  76  51 /  10  10  10  30
HYR  76  43  75  45 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  74  43  65  40 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ012-020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI