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000
FXUS63 KDLH 051038
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
438 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER TODAY. SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT ALL THE SNOW
TO THE FORECAST AREA WAS HEADING NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR AND INTO CANADA. HOWEVER...THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY THE
ARROWHEAD WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY
TODAY...RESULTING IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

THE FOCUS IS NOW ON THE VERY COLD AIR BEING DRAWN...OR
ADVECTED...INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM. LAST NIGHTS
SOUNDING DATA SHOWS 8H AIR OF -21 TO -24 POISED TO COME INTO THE
REGION ON STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND REPLACE THE 0 TO -10 AIR MASS
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TODAY. THAT
COLD AIR IS COMING IN ON STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. EVENING
RADIOSONDES SHOWED 8H WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KTS COMING IN AND CURRENT
KDLH VAD WIND PROFILE MEASURING 30 KTS AT 3K FT WHILE BASE
VELOCITY MEASURING AT 1000 FT. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A WINDY
DAY. WITH VERY COLD TEMPS TNT AND WIND...EXPECT VERY COLD WINDS
CHILLS IN THE -25 TO -30 RANGE...SO HOISTED THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY. WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN LOW INTO SATURDAY..BUT WILL SEE
SLIGHT MODERATION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

A SFC TROF IS HUNG UP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR MASS WILL KEEP QPF LOW
AND HAVE POPS TO MATCH. SNOW FALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE WIND
WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE WEST AND NOT CONDUCIVE TO HIGH POPS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING OVER THE FA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND EJECTS PIECES OF ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WARRANTS POPS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE LONG WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST. HAVE SOME POPS NEAR THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROF IN THE NW CORNER OF THE FA AND AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR AS
ANOTHER SFC TROF SIMILAR TO THE ONE FRIDAY SETS UP AGAIN. A CLIPPER
IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE FA TUESDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND SPEED SO HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

MAINLY IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS COVERED THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
EVENING...AND THAT SHOULD BE THE CASE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OR TWO THAT BECOME VFR...WHICH HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED AT KBRD/KPWC/KXVG. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...WE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TO OCCUR THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST WE`LL BECOME
VFR...BUT CLIMATOLOGY AND THE PATTERN SUGGEST KEEPING MVFR
CEILINGS LONGER.

THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OUT OF THE MVFR DECK OF
CLOUDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   9  -9   3 -13 /  20   0   0   0
INL  11  -7   3 -14 /  60  10  10  10
BRD   5 -11   3 -16 /  20   0   0   0
HYR  11  -9   6 -14 /  20   0   0   0
ASX  15  -2   9  -5 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LSZ121-140>143-
     146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE