Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 260539
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SFC RIDGE AXIS WAS MOVING OVER THE FA AT 20Z. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WERE
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WAS
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN WESTERN ND AT 20Z. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
SWD WITH THE SFC LOW AND IT SHOULD REACH FSD BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY HOVERING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WILL DIP A BIT FURTHER SWD AS THE LOW MOVES. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
POPS MENTION FOR TONIGHT UNTIL 06Z AND THEN EVER SO SLOWLY EXPAND
THE POPS ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE SPEED
OF THE FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WARRANTS CHANCE POPS THROUGH
11Z. SINCE THERE IS LESS MOISTURE WITH THESE MODEL RUNS VERSUS PRIOR
RUNS...AND THE SFC LOW IS TAKING THE MUCH FARTHER SWD
TRAJECTORY...HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT TO LESS THAN ONE HALF
INCH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT MOVES INTO NW WI AND TAKES ON A SW/NE TILT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES OVER MN. MEANWHILE...THE SFC
LOW MOVES QUICKLY INTO SW IL. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
AND BETTER MOISTURE...WHICH HAS BEEN DRAWN OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL ENHANCE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SNOW. LOOKS LIKE 1
TO 2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON...WITH A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
BAYFIELD PENINSULA. A CLEARING TREND WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM NW TO
SE ACROSS THE FA IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER/COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND
THE FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SFC RIDGING MOVING INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NEAR INL TO THE
TEENS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 169 CORRIDOR...TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPPER LEVEL WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA WED
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC INVERTED TROUGH SLIDES
EWD ACROSS MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
NRN MN DURING THIS TIME AND ACT TO INCREASE THE NORTH WINDS OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COMBINATION OF THIS STRONG NLY FLOW ACROSS LS AND
A VERY COLD AIR MASS...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -20 DEG C...AND A
RELATIVELY GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMTS ACROSS BAYFIELD...ASHLAND
AND IRON COUNTIES WED EVENING THROUGH THUR MORNING...WITH UP TO 4 TO
7 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
GO AHEAD WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTIES. WILL HOLD OFF ON BAYFIELD AT THIS TIME...AND MAY ACTUALLY
END UP UPGRADING TO A WARNING IF CONDITIONS COME TOGETHER. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER TO THE EAST ON THANKSGIVING DAY...THE
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST AND A DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW THE LES
TO END ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND BRING QUIET BUT COLD CONDITIONS TO
MUCH OF THE REGION. THE QUIET WX CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LAST FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD AS THE NEXT S/W SLIDES IN FROM THE NW ACROSS NRN MN
THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING. THE INITIAL WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
EAST ON FRI...BUT BE RE-ENFORCED BY A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE EXPECTED
TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS. COULD SEE A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW
DURING THIS 36 HOUR PERIOD STARTING THUR NIGHT. LIGHT LES IS
POSSIBLE IN NRN WI ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY END BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN.

A COLD THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW IN NW WI...AND INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO IN NE MN. LIGHT WINDS DURING THIS
TIME WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO DIP INTO THE -15 TO -30 DEG
RANGE. MAY NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WED NIGHT/THUR MORNING. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FRI AND SAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. TEMPS SLIDE BACK INTO THE CHILLY RANGE SUN AND MON WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV AND BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME THE RULE OVERNIGHT
AS LIGHT SNOW SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SOME IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
CLOUDS RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST TO EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  22  -1   9 /  30  70  20   0
INL   5   9 -13   6 /  40  20  10   0
BRD  15  20  -6  10 /  60  70  10   0
HYR  10  27   0  12 /  10  80  50  10
ASX  10  27   5  13 /  10  90  70  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DAP






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