Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 191503
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1003 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Updated to adjust clouds coverage and increase temps a couple of
degrees. Early look at models still show a possibility of a
shower or storm this evening.  Rest of fcst unchanged.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

A broad area of high pressure across the Mississippi River Valley
shifts eastward today resulting in mainly sunny skies and
southwesterly flow developing at low levels. Temperatures will be
warmer than yesterday with highs approaching 80. A cold front will
track across the Upper Midwest tonight kicking off showers and
thunderstorms across northern Minnesota, after midnight for north-
central and northeast MN. Showers and storms may dissipate towards
the daylight hours on Sunday, with another round of showers and
storms lighting up along and ahead of the front over portions of
northwest Wisconsin on Sunday. Highs again near 80. Tonight there
looks be fairly limited elevated instability, so severe storms are
not expected. However, on Sunday if storms can develop there will be
much greater instability as well as decent (~30 kts) deep-layer
shear which could sustain some strong to severe storms. However,
confidence in storms developing Sunday in northwest Wisconsin is
lower due to a strong cap that will be in place.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

The extended week ahead showcases an initial chance for additional
precipitation before turning cooler and drier for much of the work
week.

Sunday night has a continuation of precipitation chances mentioned
for the day period covered in the short term again with minimal
precipitation accumulation. Low-level atmospheric moisture profiles
continue to be somewhat dry according to latest model soundings.
Cannot rule out some storms becoming severe Sunday night as an upper
level disturbance impacts the region. A cold front associated with
the precipitation will mainly impact the southern periphery of the
forecast region with showers and thunderstorms possible. Consensus
blend models remain consistent on the frequency and intensity of
showers for this period.

Highs for much of the week will remain in the mid 70s. A slight
cool down will be in store for Wednesday as a region of high
pressure continues to build over the Northland. Sky cover will
generally be clear to mostly sunny. Overnight lows for this period
will remain in the normal range for this time of year. Could
though see some lower overnight temps in the lower valley areas
where colder temps are usually expected.

Recent consensus model runs have at the tail end of this forecast
period have some initial precipitations for the Saturday period on
the 26th though changes will continue to be made as the period moves
closer to present.

In terms of the eclipse...sky cover will be the thickest over the
southern areas due to this system, but other portions of the
Northland may potentially have an opportunity to view some of the
eclipse during the early afternoon, if some brief clearing
develops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Morning fog will quickly dissipate this morning with VFR
conditions prevailing through much of the TAF period. Clear skies
today with a light 5-10 knots west wind. Late tonight (after
midnight) there is a chance for showers/storms in north central MN
which could impact BRD, INL, HIB, and DLH, with INL most likely to
be impacted by storms. Confidence low if storms will even develop
at this point so just included VCSH in this issuance. Some MVFR
fog possible at HYR tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  58  78  57 /   0  20  20  10
INL  82  60  76  50 /   0  40  10   0
BRD  80  61  77  56 /   0  20  10  20
HYR  80  57  80  58 /  10  10  30  20
ASX  83  59  84  58 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Stewart
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...JJM



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