Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 192347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
647 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Elevated fire danger conditions will persist though the early
evening hours before improving as winds decrease and humidities
increase. Quiet conditions overnight, with lows in the middle to
upper 40s.

Dry conditions will continue through the day Friday as we remain
underneath a mid- to upper-level ridge pattern. Elevated fire danger
will be possible once again. However, a push of more moist,
southerly air will make its way over the Northland for Friday, so
the air shouldn`t be quite as dry as it has been Wednesday and
today. Winds will still be a bit gusty Friday due to a robust 35
to 45 knot low-level jet ascending northeast into our region.
Warmer air associated with this southerly flow will enhance warm
air advection, leading to the warmest day of the week, with highs
Friday expected to be in the lower to middle 70s. This warming
thermal profile should allow the boundary layer to mix deep enough
to tap into these stronger winds aloft. NAM model soundings are
progging mixing up to ~925 mb, so it could be a bit breezy again
Friday, likely moreso than compared to today. Relative humidity
values shouldn`t be quite as low as they have been the last few
days due to higher dew point temperatures, with RH values in the
30 to 40 percent range. Clouds should increase during the
afternoon ahead of a weak mid-level wave that may bring a small
chance of a rain shower over the Brainerd Lakes. Otherwise, dry
conditions will continue elsewhere through the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

A deep southerly flow will occur Friday night ahead of a low
pressure system and cold front that will be over the Northern Plains
Friday evening. The front will move into the Red River Valley
Saturday morning, continue into eastern Minnesota or western
Wisconsin by Saturday evening then clear our CWA Saturday night.
Moisture will be on the increase ahead of the front with PWAT
values near record values on Saturday, around 1.3 inches. The
stability will lower as well. Showers and a few thunderstorms will
develop from south to north Friday night into Saturday with
chances highest on Saturday. The chance for showers/storms will
diminish or end from west to east Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Saturday`s highs will be in the sixties for most areas.

A fast west/northwest flow aloft will occur Sunday then an upper
level trough will develop over the region Sunday night into Monday
shifting east by mid week. There will be a chance for rain Sunday
night into Tuesday night with the rain mixing with or changing to
snow at times Monday night into early Tuesday and again Tuesday
night. Any snow accumulation should be light. Temperatures will be
cooling from Sunday through Tuesday from highs in the fifties to
lower sixties Sunday to the forties Tuesday.

Temperatures will warm a bit Wednesday ahead of another cold front
but become cooler after the frontal passage on Thursday. A chance
for rain will accompany the frontal passage mid to late week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. The main concern
is with winds, with strong southwest winds developing aloft
between 00z-03z this evening. These winds will continue until 10z
in the morning, so have included LLWS groups in the TAF forecast
overnight. Surface winds increase in the 15z-18z time range to
10-15kts with gusts of 15-25kts, with the strongest gusts near


DLH  48  72  56  63 /   0  10  30  80
INL  47  75  58  65 /   0  10  30  70
BRD  50  74  60  64 /   0  20  60  80
HYR  49  76  58  66 /   0   0  30  80
ASX  50  77  57  68 /   0   0  20  70




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