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000
FXUS63 KDLH 050534 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1134 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING IN THE ISOLATED AREAS WHERE THE
WINDS ARE CALM...SUCH AS NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY. LOWERED THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AT 330 PM...THE CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM ZERO AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY
AND GRAND MARAIS...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE CWA. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES AS WELL.

THE BIG STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS IS BASED ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW AS IT WILL BE SO MARGINAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGH THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN CHANGES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FEW...AND NO MAJOR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. OVERALL THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
TRANSITION TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
WEEKEND PATTERN...WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENS CAUSING A MORE ZONAL
FLOW TO DEVELOP...AND EVEN TILTING TOWARDS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...BUT THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN EVENTUALLY TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT MID LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM
-15C OR SO ON THURSDAY TO -10C TO -5C OVER THE WEEKEND...RISING TO
NEAR 0C TO +5C EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH JUST THE EXPECTED MINOR
DISCREPANCIES IN SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS OF THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...AND
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES
IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH PARTS OF THE LAKE ALREADY THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT SINCE THIS AIRMASS IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD /850MB
TEMPS -10 TO -12C RANGE/ AM NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH
SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING UP TO NEAR
NORMAL...THURS NIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S..AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE
CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT FOR LONG AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED...AND SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE. TEMPS IDENTICAL TO FRI/FRI NIGHT...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOWFALL COMING TO AN END AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MILDER...HIGHS IN
MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

MON/TUE...WARMER WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID 40S...REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THE KBRD AREA
HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME SW THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
SSW THURSDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35 TO 40
KNOTS BELOW 2 KFT BY THE LATE EVENING. THE JET WIND SPEEDS LOOK
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF LLWS FOR THE LATE
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -14  12   5  34 /   0   0   0  10
INL -22  15   6  29 /   0   0   0  10
BRD -15  15   7  36 /   0   0   0  10
HYR -18  12   1  33 /   0   0   0  10
ASX -14  14   6  34 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI