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000
FXUS63 KDLH 062121
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

RELATIVELY BALMY TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH
SOUTH WINDS SOME MELTING GOING ON OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON.  OUR
NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS TAKING SHAPE OUT ON THE PLAINS...WITH A
SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.  INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS UP
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA.  WHILE IT SEEMS WARM...THE WARM FRONT IS
STILL EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...BEHIND
WHICH TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

TONIGHT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A
FRESH ROUGH OF SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP TO THE AREA.  FOR NOW HAVE
LEANT MAINLY ON THE NAM...WITH ITS MIXTURE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
SLEET AND SNOW FOLLOWED BY SNOW.  THIS EVENING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD GET SOME SNOW AND SLEET MIXTURE...WITH
SNOW NORTH...WITH THE SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORTING SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE WHERE WE CAN GET ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SATURATION. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS TO RUN ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...SO EXPECT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH THAN WE HAD LAST NIGHT. LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD TURN PRECIPITATION
BACK TO ALL SNOW. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S.

FRIDAY SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST WILL
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER MORNING
HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

PROGRESSIVE BUT SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED W/NW FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE DAY 2-7 TIME FRAME ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.  WHILE TEMPS WILL MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM RECENT
READINGS..THERE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DECENT..YET
BRIEF SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR.

FIRST OF AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY BEHIND DEPARTING WEAK WAVE AND COLD FRONT. THIS BOUT
OF COLD AIR WILL BE BRIEF..BUT TIMING OF THERMAL TROF AT 925/850 AND
SFC RIDGE AXIS SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS WILL DIP BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS
SAT MORNING AS WINDS CALM DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST/SOUTH IN PROGRESSIVE
FLOW PATTERN..ALLOWING RETURN FLOW/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO
DEVELOP SAT NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW BRUSHING BY FAR NRN MN AND THE ARROWHEAD SAT NIGHT/SUN
MORNING. HOWEVER..AT THIS TIME..IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST AREAL
COVERAGE OF PRECIP THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE NORTH OF THE BORDER IN
ONTARIO.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN 3 WEEKS AS MOST OF THE CWA WILL
RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF NEXT ADVANCING UPSTREAM WAVE..ALONG
WITH W/SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.  OUR
CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 30S MAY NEED TO BE REVISED
UPWARD IN FUTURE ISSUANCES..AS SOME LOCALES MAY PUSH INTO THE 40S
ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD COVER IS LIMITED.

NEXT SUBSEQUENT WAVE WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW ESEWD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT..WHICH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN SHOWERS OR MIXED
PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. AGAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM HOWEVER..AT THIS TIME..IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL REMAIN ALONG OR NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER.  SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM..RESULTING IN COLDER TEMPS AGAIN
TUE/WED AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION WITH 925 TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -15C TO -20C RANGE
AS EASTERN CONUS TROF REAMPLIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

THE NORTHLAND IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS OF MIDDAY..WITH PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTH HAVING MOVED EAST OF KINL/KHIB. NEXT APPROACHING
WAVE IS RESULTING IN PRESSURE FALLS AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT..WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30KT AT TIMES INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. VSBY REDUCTION AT KBRD IS LIKELY DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN SOME FORM THRU THIS
AFTERNOON.

APPROACHING WAVE AND CONTINUED SUSTAINED ASCENT SHOULD EVENTUALLY
RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS THIS EVENING..WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY KINL AND
KHIB. FARTHER SOUTH..LIGHT FZDZ/SN IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGT/FRI
MORNING UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NW
BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS..LATEST AT
KHYR..ALONG WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR
RANGE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  30   2  24 /  50  20  10   0
INL  18  25  -7  20 /  80  20  10  10
BRD  24  28  -3  22 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  22  33   4  26 /  40  30  10  10
ASX  23  34   7  25 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MILLER