Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 291205
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
605 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ENDED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
AND HAVE REMOVED. THE ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN LET GO. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT AREA TAF SITES
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS ARE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS WEAK BANDS EVIDENT
ON KDLH RADAR THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING UP TO 30KTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THESE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS IMPROVEMENT
TONIGHT...BUT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHEN SOME
CLEARING MAY OCCUR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  -3  15   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  13 -10  15  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  22   3  22   9 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  27  -3  16   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  28   2  16  10 /  10  20   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...JJM





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