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000
FXUS63 KDLH 010328
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
928 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW APPEARS TO BE FALLING APART AS IT TRIES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MADE MORE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW IS JUST REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM.
THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS THE CLEARING
LINE IS AT THE MN/ND BORDER. ADJUSTED POPS/WX/SKY ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE
REMOVED. SKY HAS ALSO CLEARED AND ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST AHEAD OF A SFC TROF THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH MVFR ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE TROF AND WILL AFFECT ALL
LOCATIONS...THEN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 09Z. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL HAPPEN AFTER TROF PASSAGE. PERIODIC GUSTY
SFC WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE TROF.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  10  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF