Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 231809
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1209 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Added 309 and 310 to the RFW today. Already hitting at Cheyenne
and we should see another 3+ hours of critical fire weather
conditions. Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 808 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Already seeing wind gusts of 25 to 30 MPH across Converse County
this morning with humidities in the low 20 percent range. Decided
to add FWZ 301 into the Red Flag Warning as the cooler/moist air
not going to move in until this evening. May need to add more
zones (309 and 310) as the morning progresses. Will take a wait
and see approach. Updates sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

A weak front will push across the CWA this morning but the cooler air
will lag behind the front so still on the warm side for today. Air mass
rather dry so any convection looks to be limited to the mountains later
this afternoon into this evening. Should see an increase in mainly high
clouds today from the southwest as moisture around an upper low near
Las Vegas gets advected northeastward. Secondary front will push across
this evening bringing cooler air for the CWA tonight with the cool air
mass holding Wednesday through Thursday as a surface high slides slowly
east over the northern plains. Airmass will be slow to moisten but
should see some showers and a few storms develop across far southeast
Wyoming by late Wednesday afternoon aided by upslope flow. Activity
should wane Weds night but return Thursday in similar weather pattern.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Latest medium range model guidance depicts a upper trough progressing
east across the north central Rockies and plains Friday through
Saturday. A weak surface front will move east through the CWA by
Saturday morning, preceded by isolated to scattered convection. A
light to moderate west-southwest flow aloft then dominates the weather
pattern for the remainder of the weekend into early next week.
Isolated convection will be possible over the mountains Saturday
and Sunday afternoon. Temperatures start the period near seasonal
normals with highs in the 70s to low 80s, then slowly warm above
normal with highs in the 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected today with gusty winds continuing thru
early to mid afternoon, especially across southeast Wyoming. Light
and variable winds expected overnight with generally SCT-BKN skies
above 10k feet AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

One more day of critical fire weather concerns out west due to some
gusty winds combining with dry conditions. A few showers possible
over the mountains but little rainfall expected from these. Conditions
will turn cooler tonight with milder temperatures and lighter winds
allowing for low fire weather concerns Wednesday through the rest
of the week.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ301>304-306-
     308>310.

NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RE


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