Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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128
FXUS65 KTWC 261539
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
839 AM MST FRI AUG 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...The moisture is back, and with it we`ll see increased
thunderstorm activity, especially today and Saturday. Some of the
stronger storms may bring heavy downpours and high winds. We`ll
continue to see a decent chance of thunderstorms into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Our moisture is back and the 12z KTWC sounding
shows the atmosphere is primed for storms today. Precipitable
water has jumped from 1 to 1.4 inches. There`s some low level
shear to assist with storm structure, dry air to entrain from mid
levels, and westerly flow aloft to push anvil blowoff out of the
way of the storms as they push north. ML CAPE at 770 primed to
push past 1000 J/KG later this morning, with minimal convective
inhibition.

With that in mind we already pushed out an update with a strong
increase in thunderstorm coverage and added some blowing dust to
the weather grids. Some storm organization is expected with strong
outflows and efficient rain producers.

The weak low coming in from the west should dirty up the flow and
continue to help storms along Saturday. Otherwise, we will
continue to see plenty of moisture for most of our part of the
state well into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Strong thunderstorm coverage today, increasing after
26/17Z. MVFR conditions with stronger storms. Normal diurnal wind
trends outside of strong and erratic thunderstorm outflows.
Partial clearing after 27/03Z, but a few showers will hang on
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Increasing storm coverage is expected through the
weekend as moisture increases from the south/southeast. 20-foot
winds into early next week will be terrain driven and less than 15
mph in most locations. Expect the potential for strong and gusty
winds near any thunderstorms that do develop.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Meyer/Rasmussen

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