Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 221632

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
930 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail through Sunday. Expect
well above normal high temperatures today with a few spots near
record highs. A weather system passing by to the north on Thursday
will bring much cooler temperatures to the area Thursday and Friday.
A warmup again this weekend before a strong Pacific storm brings a
chance of precipitation to the area on Monday and Tuesday.


.DISCUSSION...Warm across the area today with a few locals near
February 22nd record highs. These warm temperatures are associated
with high pressure centered over northern MX. This high has kept the
stream of high clouds, seen on satellite imagery this morning
extending from nrn AZ to srn CA, away from the area during the
overnight hours. Still looking as some of these clouds moving across
the area over the next 24 hours as the upper high pushes east. Weak
short wave moving by to our north on Thursday will bring cooler
temperatures, gusty winds area wide along with a few flakes across
northern Greenlee county.


.AVIATION...Valid through 23/12Z.
Clear conditions into this afternoon then SCT-BKN clouds above 15k
ft AGL into Thursday morning. Light surface winds mainly less than
10 kts thru 22/18z then becoming westerly 10-15 kts with gusts to 25
kts through the afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Highs will be about 8 to 10 degrees above normal
today, before returning to near normal Thursday and Friday as a
weather system passes north of the area. Surface winds will remain
light this morning, but will become gusty with daytime heating.
Expect gusty afternoon winds Thursday and Friday with the passing
system to the north.

Warmer and dry conditions will continue through the weekend with
afternoon winds picking up again Sunday afternoon.  A storm system
will approach the area Monday resulting in rather windy conditions
and depending on how slow the moisture is to arrive we could have
critically low humidity levels again across zone 152 with the winds
before any showers arrive.





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