Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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364
FXUS65 KTWC 160937
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
236 AM MST Sat Sep 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms mainly east to south of Tucson into the middle of next
week. Daytime temperatures will remain near seasonal normals through
Monday followed by cooler temperatures by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Models were in agreement with depicting a mean trough
of low pressure over the western states through next week. Minor
shortwave troughs embedded in the flow will pass through the region
bringing gusty winds from time-to-time. In general, this weather
pattern will provide the area with near seasonable high
temperatures. Enough moisture will linger across the area to support
isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly in the
mountains east and southeast of Tucson. Otherwise, the southwesterly
flow pattern will result in drier conditions overall.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 17/12Z.
Clear skies west of KTUS with FEW-SCT clouds at 5k-8k ft AGL east
and south of KTUS. Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA this afternoon and evening
mainly east and south of KTUS. SFC wind variable in direction and
less than 10 kts thru 16/17Z. SFC wind between 16/17Z and 17/03Z
sly/swly at 8-14 kts with some gusts to near 20 kts. Diminishing SFC
wind aft 17/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect isolated afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms mainly east to south of Tucson into the middle of next
week. Dry conditions with cooler daytime temperatures will then
occur late next week. A deepening upper trough over the western
states may bring gusty winds late next week as well.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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