Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 260332

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
832 PM MST MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Adequate moisture will provide scattered mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms into this weekend. Perhaps some
decrease in coverage will occur around Thursday. Expect hotter than
average daytime temperatures through Thursday followed by
moderating temperatures by early next week.


.DISCUSSION...Plenty of moisture but not much activity around most
of Southeast Arizona this afternoon and evening. The biggest
problem is a more stable atmosphere with substantial warming in
mid levels creating convective potentials favoring primarily
mountain locations. We will still be vulnerable to outflows from
the east and south overnight with plenty of unused mid level CAPE

With theta-e analysis suggesting more development immediately
south of the border tomorrow afternoon, we will probably see more
action near border areas compared to today. However we may
continue to struggle in central locations that will continue to
rely on outflow triggers for valleys. Please see the previous
discussion below for additional details.


Isolated convection overnight with some debris cloud between
10-12k feet at times. Another chance of thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon. Brief wind gusts to 45 kts and MVFR conditions are
possible with the stronger TSRA. Otherwise, sfc wind mainly less
than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will occur into this weekend. Outside of
gusty thunderstorm outflow winds, 20-foot winds will generally be
westerly to northwesterly at less than 15 mph during the
afternoons, becoming light and terrain driven overnight.


.PREV DISCUSSION...For this forecast issuance, have maintained
scattered showers/tstms across much of the area this evening, then
a slight chance of showers/tstms late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Similar coverage of showers/tstms should occur Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Some decrease in showers/tstms should commence
Wednesday and continue Thursday, especially west of Tucson, as the
25/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC depicted some drying to occur. Thus, PoPs
were lowered particularly for Thursday, and isolated to scattered
showers/tstms are now expected to occur.

Thereafter, the medium range models were similar with depicting some
increase in moisture to return starting Friday. Thus, have opted
for a continuation of scattered mainly afternoon/evening showers/
tstms especially from Tucson eastward/southward Friday into early
next week.

High temps through Thursday will generally average about 5-8 degs
or so above normal. Daytime temps will then trend closer to
seasonal normals by early next week.






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