Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 261612
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WE`LL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND
FOR TUCSON AND THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK IMPULSES PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE MEAN
TROUGH POSITION CONTINUES TO FILL ACROSS THE REGION AND THE SPLIT
CONSOLIDATES NORTHWARD. THIS MEANS OF COURSE THAT WE ARE ABOUT TO
HEAT UP. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL WITH THE FIRST 100
DEGREE TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR EXPECTED IN TUCSON BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/18Z.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WITH PATCHES OF MAINLY CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS AT
TIMES. SWLY/WLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS TIL 27/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS THIS
WEEK...WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER
ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...OVER PORTIONS
OF GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...FLOW ALOFT OUT OF THE WEST THIS MORNING WILL TURN
TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS TROF WILL MOVE INTO WRN AZ ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN ACROSS SE AZ WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS TROF SO EXPECT ONLY CU BUILDUPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE WHITES...AT
THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY. WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT THREE DAYS BUT
STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY W-NW FLOW OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY. TUCSON MAY SEE ITS FIRST ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN WELL OVER TWO WEEKS ON FRIDAY.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS LIKELY IN THE LOWER
DESERTS AND TUCSON FLIRTING WITH THE FIRST 100 DEGREE HIGH OF 2015
WITH SUNDAY...69%...HAVING THE BETTER SHOT THAN SATURDAY...20%. OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES INTO NEW MEXICO...MOISTURE WILL
BE MOVING WEST ACROSS NEW MEXICO THANKS TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
COULD SEE THIS MOISTURE CREEP INTO THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT POPS OVER THE AZ/NM
BORDER AREAS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT EASILY CAN SEE ISOLATED HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN BAJA NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE GFS IS THE MOST BOLDEST MODEL
ON INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO OVER AN INCH FROM TUCSON
WEST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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