Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 190943

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
240 AM MST Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Continued above normal temperatures. A fast moving
disturbance will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms today,
mainly near eastern mountains. Expect some modest cooling Friday and
Saturday, then near record high temperatures are expected early next
week as high pressure aloft builds over the area.


.DISCUSSION...Weak upper level trof over western AZ this morning
will continue to move east across the state today. Best dynamics
with this feature will be across northern/central Arizona with best
chances for showers, possibly a t-storm, north and northeast of
Tucson. Slightly cooler today versus Wednesday but still running
well above normal. Another upper level trof passing by to our north
on Friday will continue the cooling trend into Saturday where highs
will be at or slightly below normal. Breezy conditions also on
Friday. Enjoy the cool down as it will heat up with record to near
record highs early next week. See climate section below for
additional details.


AVIATION...Valid thru 20/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 8-12k ft AGL, locally BKN, thru the forecast
period. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA mainly northeast/east of KTUS thru
20/05Z. SFC wind less than 10 kts thru 19/18Z, then SWLY/WLY SFC
wind at 8-12 kts with gusts to 18 kts between 19/18Z and 20/02Z. Aft
20/02Z, SFC wind less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A weak disturbance moving across the region will
result in isolated showers and thunderstorms over eastern portions
of the forecast area through this evening. Dry conditions are then
expected starting on Friday and continuing through at least the
middle of next week. Southwest winds will be up just a bit today and
then winds will be breezy from the southwest to west on Friday into
Saturday. An easterly wind regime sets up on Sunday into early next


.CLIMATE...Record setting day ahead for Tucson with today being
the 179th day of 90+ degree high temperatures for 2017. This would
break the record of 178 days which occurred in 1910 and 1989.

After a break over the weekend, record or near record high
temperatures are likely early next week as an unseasonably strong
ridge of high pressure aloft builds over the area. Current forecast
high of 97 for Tucson Intl next Tuesday, if correct, would be the
2nd latest occurrence of 97 in the calendar on record. The record
latest date is Oct 27 2016. There is a small chance next Tuesday
that the high at Tucson Intl could hit 98, which, if that happens,
would be the latest occurrence of 98 in the calendar on record,
besting the current latest date of Oct 19 in 1921 & 1991.

         Tucson International Airport
             Forecast  Record
Mon Oct 23      95       94
Tue Oct 24      96       96
Wed Oct 25      94       95




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