Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 252138
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BRING EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME LOCALES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CLOUD COVER THE WAS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS
PUSHED SE WITH BACK EDGE...AS OF 2 PM...EXTENDING FROM SAN SIMON TO
SIERRA VISTA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE OUT OF COCHISE COUNTY BY 5 PM.
UPSTREAM INTO UTAH THERE IS SOME CIRRUS SO EXPECT THEM TO PASS THRU
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON WERE
RUNNING A LITTLE BIT BEHIND TUESDAY AND LIKELY WILL END UP A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
A FEW LOCALS MAY THREATEN RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY WITH SATURDAY SEEING
THE BEST CHANCE OF RECORD HIGHS BEING TIED OR BROKEN. AT THIS
TIME...DUE TO AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...IT LOOKS LIKE
SUNDAY WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS EARLIER THOUGHT. SO CHANCES ARE
LOWERED FOR RECORD HIGHS ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE EASTERN AREAS. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH THE GFS STILL THE WETTEST BUT NOT AS WET AS IT WAS
24 HOURS AGO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. FEW-SCT CIRRUS AOA 25K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE KDUG
TERMINAL WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. NWLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 18-22 KTS WILL OCCUR IN THE GILA VALLEY AND NEAR THE
KSAD TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL JUST SEE
SOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WLY TO NWLY SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 12-15 KTS
WHICH WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. AFT 26/10Z...SOME
ELEVATED ELY WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE KDUG TERMINAL AND LAST THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK
AND THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO NEAR-RECORD LEVELS BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE GILA RIVER VALLEY. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON THE 28TH. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS
FOR MARCH 28TH AND 29TH.

LOCATION                   MARCH 28TH      MARCH 29TH
TUCSON INTNL AIRPORT       91 IN 1943      91 IN 1943
AJO                        97 IN 1988      93 IN 1943
PICACHO PEAK               92 IN 1988      93 IN 2004
NOGALES                    84 IN 1986      85 IN 1967
SAFFORD                    91 IN 1988      89 IN 1953
SIERRA VISTA               82 IN 1967      83 IN 2012
TOMBSTONE                  91 IN 1917      86 IN 1943
WILLCOX                    89 IN 1916      88 IN 1916
DOUGLAS                    85 IN 2012      85 IN 2012

THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE FIRST 90 DEGREE DATE IN TUCSON IS APRIL 9TH.
HOWEVER SINCE 2000 THE AVERAGE FIRST DATE IS MARCH 29TH. SO BASED ON
RECENT HISTORY...THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DATE FOR
TUCSON IS RIGHT ON TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






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