Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 100903
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
203 AM MST WED SEP 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN USHER MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 10/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS...WITH A TROUGH
CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS UTAH...NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. PLENTY OF DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WATERS...CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF ARIZONA
AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM COLORADO...EASTERN UTAH...NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO
AND THEN DRAPED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA. THE BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF MY FORECAST AREA...NAMELY PORTIONS OF PINAL...GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES. RADAR MOSAIC FROM AROUND THE STATE ARE DETECTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT EXTEND FROM WEST OF GALLUP NEW MEXICO THROUGH
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THEN ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA TOWARDS YUMA.
THESE SHOWERS ARE VERY LIGHT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND
THE REGION ARE SHOWING JUST TRACE AMOUNTS TO PERHAPS JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SAG FARTHER SOUTH...REACHING NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND CENTRAL ARIZONA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT ISOLATED MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MINIMAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND
AGAIN MOSTLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.

BY FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND EXTENDING
WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEAST
FETCH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL HELP TO USHER
IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR A INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN SO...ONLY LOOKING AT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL ZONES...SUCH AS TUCSON...WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. THIS SET UP WILL
GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO
HANG OUR HATS ON ONE PARTICULAR SOLUTION...OR TO TRY AND COMPARE
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WITH WHAT OCCURRED WITH NORBERT. THEREFORE...STAY
TUNED FOR CONTINUOUSLY UPDATED AND REVISED FORECASTS BETWEEN NOW AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...THEN 1 TO 3 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...HIGHS HOVERING NEAR NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY MORNING...THEN 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL EACH MORNING THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-TSRA IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU EARLY THURSDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DECREASING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON
AND MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE
20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN...EXCEPT
FOR STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE




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