Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 201605

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
905 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail through next Saturday
except for a few snow showers near the White Mountains Thursday. A
strong warming trend will also occur through Wednesday before cooler
temperatures return late this week. The next system will then bring
a slight chance of valley rain and mountain snow early next week.


.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery showed a few clouds from Tucson
westward across the Tohono O`Odham Nation this morning, with
scattered to broken skies eastward near the NM border. Some
locations saw some patchy fog this morning, but expect to see that
mix out in the next hour or so as temperatures continue to increase.
Showers last night were enough to keep dewpoints slightly higher
than anticipated, and in return kept morning lows several degrees
warmer than what was forecast. 20/16z area sfc temps generally
ranged from the mid 40s to low 50s with dewpoints in the 40s.

Dry conditions will prevail today. There`s enough moisture to
support some cumulus development this afternoon, but the overall
trend will be clearing from west to east. Winds will be light and
terrain driven, with high temperatures rebounding to within a few
degrees of normal. Some minor adjustments were made to the near term
forecast with regard to temps, dewpoints and sky cover to match with
recent trends. No other updates are needed this morning. Please see
the remaining sections for additional details.


.AVIATION...Valid through 21/18Z.
Increasing CIGS and with FEW-SCT clouds at 6k-10k ft AGL lingering
into this evening, eventually becoming SKC into Tuesday morning. SFC
wind will follow terrain at less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and warmer temperatures will
occur through Wednesday. A series of storm systems passing to our
north will result in breezy conditions late Wednesday and Thursday,
as well as over the upcoming weekend. Cooler temperatures will also
be on tap Thursday into the upcoming weekend.


.PREV DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure aloft will build over
the region in the wake of the weekend storm system. The extensive
cloud cover this morning will gradually clear today, with highs
rebounding about 8 to 10 degrees from readings yesterday. The ridge
of high pressure will strengthen through Tuesday with highs peaking
on Wednesday. Models showed this ridge breaking down and shifting
eastward late Wednesday as the tail end of a system tracking through
the central Rockies brushes the area Wednesday night and Thursday. A
few showers will be possible in the White Mountains, with just a
cooling trend most areas for Thursday. Thereafter, models continued
to show another storm system impacting the region late this weekend.






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