Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 150928
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
226 AM MST Tue Aug 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A slight chance of thunderstorms east of Tucson this
afternoon followed by dry conditions Wednesday into Friday. Expect
scattered thunderstorms to return by early next week. Daytime
temperatures quite close to seasonal normals except a few degrees
above normal Thursday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Very quite thunderstorm wise compared to the past
several nights. This lack of thunderstorm activity was a good sign
that a drier and more stable air mass was becoming established
across the area. Latest models continued to show a drier and deeper
westerly flow pattern over the region for much of the week. GFS and
GEFS showed a more favorable flow pattern and a return in moisture
this coming weekend. This should translate to an upswing in
thunderstorm activity, especially Sunday into early next week.
Otherwise, daytime temperatures will remain near normal with a
slight increase in readings above normal Thursday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 16/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 8k-12k ft AGL mainly east of a KOLS to KTUS to
KPAN line. Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA east of KTUS this afternoon and
early evening. Clear skies west of KTUS. Surface wind variable in
direction and less than 12 kts thru 15/17Z. Surface wind sly/swly at
8-16 kts with gusts to near 25 kts between 15/17Z and 16/03Z, with
the strongest speeds east of KTUS. Surface wind less than 12 kts aft
16/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A few showers and thunderstorms will occur east of
Tucson this afternoon/early evening followed by dry conditions
Wednesday into Friday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will then return this coming weekend. 20-foot winds
will be a little elevated today, with afternoon/early evening south
to southwest winds of 13-18 mph. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will
generally be terrain driven and less than 15 mph apart from any
thunderstorms outflows.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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