Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 252157
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
255 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NICE WARMUP AFTER CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH TONIGHT
BEING A BIT WARMER.

DRY FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. A PAIR OF QUICK
MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NE AZ WITH
THE WHITES ON THE SRN FRINGES WITH FRIDAY SEEING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS.

THE NEXT WINTER STORM WILL START TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WITH AREAS S AND E OF TUCSON APPROACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND IS
MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MIGHT SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOISTURE START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WINTER STORM.

STILL ON TRACK WITH THE AREA HAVING A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE SLOWED A BIT SO HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT TIMING ADJUSTMENTS
WITH FURTHER TWEAKS LIKELY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. I DID RAISE
POPS A LITTLE BIT MORE AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO RISE. HOWEVER
STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT ON NAILING DOWN 48-HOUR LIQUID QPF TOTALS
BUT EARLY GUESS HAS 0.50"-1.50" WEST OF A CLIFTON-SIERRA VISTA LINE
WITH LESS THAN A HALF INCH E OF THE ABOVE LINE. AGAIN THESE TOTALS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
START OFF RATHER HIGH ON SATURDAY...FALL TO 7500-8500 FEET SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND 6000-7000 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS WITH LIQUID
QPF...STILL WAY TO EARLY ON TOTAL SNOWFALL BUT EARLY GUESS HAS UP TO
A FOOT ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR THE CATALINA AND RINCON AND 12"-20" FOR
THE PINALENO AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOLLOW-UP SYSTEM WILL KEEP IT UNSETTLED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/00Z.
A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...SKC TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. SFC WIND NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS...THEN BECOMING LIGHT
AFTER 26/02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 20
MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.  FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE A WARM
AND DRY DAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. WINDS WILL BECOME
EVEN STRONGER SATURDAY...GENERALLY 20-30 MPH WITH STRONGER WINDS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE A
COOL AND WET PERIOD WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WET WEATHER
SYSTEM THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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