Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 222054
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
154 PM MST Fri Mar 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warmer area-wide through Saturday. A storm
system will then move across the area Sunday through Tuesday of next
week, resulting in much cooler temperatures, strong gusty winds and
a chance of valley rain and mountain snow. Winds will increase as
early as Saturday afternoon ahead of the system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure with dry conditions and temperatures
several degrees above average into Saturday.

The storm system near the Pacific Northwest and norther
California coast will push into the Great Basin and intermountain
west over the next 48 hours, with several impulses establishing a
broad mean trough position over the region through the first half
of next week. As an aggregate, this storm system is looking
stronger, cooler and wetter than recent systems

A southwesterly gradient will increase to breezy and locally windy
levels Saturday afternoon, even as temperatures remain well above
average. Winds should be a little stronger on Sunday with patchy
blowing dust a concern ahead of any broad precip trends. We`ll
see a steep drop- off in temps Sunday as the first impulse brings
solid late season cold air advection in from the west and
northwest. NAEFS is showing solid and broad mean integrated water
vapor transport trends Saturday evening, with a strong moisture /
dynamics couplet across SE AZ 06Z-18Z Sunday (through the morning
hours). We`ll have something of a break Sunday afternoon as precip
gets spotty.

The second piece of the storm will rotate in from the northwest
Sunday evening into Monday morning. That`s where we might end up
with the bulk of our precip. Storm totals for Sunday and Monday
ranging from 1/4 to 3/4 of an inch in valleys and over 1 inch in
many mountain locations. Snow levels may fall as low as 5k ft,
with 4 to 10 inches possible above 6k ft, and isolated higher
amounts above 8k ft.

Precip chances will slow by Monday afternoon, however residual
boundary layer moisture will be sufficient for scattered afternoon
showers and partial clearing brings in a little lift from
insolation. The third and final piece of the storm will move
across the area Tuesday, with a little more of a northerly
component to the flow on the back side of the trough. Things will
probably not be quite as juicy by then, so a solid chance of
showers but lower QPF values.

A strong ridge should bring a rapid warming trend for the second
half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL. SFC wind less than 10 kts,
favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening
hours and variable in direction overnight. Southwest winds
increasing after 23/17Z 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected across southeast
Arizona through Saturday. High temperatures will be 3-6 degrees
above normal today and Saturday, lowering to 15-20 degrees below
normal Sunday and Monday, before warming back to near normal the
latter half of next week. Minimum RHs will be in the 8-15 percent
range in the valleys today and Saturday. A storm system will move
into the region late Saturday night through early next week,
resulting in strong and gusty winds, much cooler temperatures,
precipitation chances and higher relative humidity values.
20-foot winds will be below 15 mph and diurnal in nature today.
On Saturday 20-foot winds will be southwest at 20-25 mph and
gusts to around 35 mph, with stronger winds expected on Sunday
especially to the east of Tucson. While min RH values on Saturday
will be at or below critical thresholds, fire danger levels are
currently in the low to moderate category, so no Fire Weather
Watches and/or Red Flag Warnings are anticipated at this time.
Min RH values will then increase to well above critical
thresholds on Sunday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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