Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 241703
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1000 AM MST THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HOTTER TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED A CLEAR SKY
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER AIR CHARTS PLACED 500 MB
HIGH OVER NE NM WHILE AT 300 AND 250 MBS...THE HIGH WAS OVER E
CENTRAL AZ. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REALLY LOW FOR JULY ACROSS SE
AZ...WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 0.75" NEAR AZ/NM BORDER TO 1.25" WEST
OF TUCSON. AFTER TAKING A LOOK AT ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
AND OPERATIONAL MODELS...BELIEVE THAT THE BEST AREAL COVERAGE OF
STORMS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF TUCSON. FURTHER SOUTH AN MCS
THAT STARTED LAST NIGHT IN SOUTHERN DURANGO MEXICO MOVED ACROSS THE
MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND IS DYING ACROSS SRN BAJA. THIS
FEATURE MAY SEND AN OUTFLOW UP THE GLFCA AND PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE STATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
RESIDING IN THE GULF WITH VALUES BETWEEN 1.50" AND 2" PER LATEST
BLENDED PW IMAGERY. IF WE GET SOME OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE STATE
COMBINED WITH BETTER MID-LEVEL TEMPS/FLOW...COULD SEE AN UPSWING IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE A BIG
DAY AS MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INVERTED TROF MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR AT THIS TIME ACROSS SE AZ. EXPECT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP AFTER 24/18Z...ESPECIALLY S AND W OF KTUS. THIS AREA WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLD -SHRA/TS BTWN 24/20Z AND 25/02Z.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 KTS VCNTY -TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR HAS RETURNED FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF TUCSON
TODAY WHERE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF TUCSON FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND
AS MORE WIDESPREAD MOISTURE MOVES IN. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE HOT TODAY WITH GRADUAL
COOLING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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