Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 121552

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
852 AM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Today through much of next week will be dry with much
warmer than average temperatures. Near record high temperatures
are expected Saturday from the Tucson area west across the lower


.DISCUSSION...The weather will be on rinse and repeat mode starting
today and continuing for much of the next week across southeast
Arizona. Upper level ridging is centered west of Baja near 25N/120W
with our area under northwesterly flow aloft and mostly clear skies.
12Z KTWC sounding shows considerable warming aloft between 850mb and
700mb which will result in quick warming this morning with highs in
the mid 70`s on tap for Tucson. This is about 10 degrees above
normal for this time of year.

Surface high pressure building across the southern Rockies will
result in an easterly component developing overnight into Saturday
with a few breezes in the normally susceptible locations including
much of the Tucson metro area. Otherwise, little change in sensible
weather this weekend with continued very warm temperatures and near
record high temperatures in a few locales. Some increase in
cirroform cloudiness expected Sunday into Monday and then around
Tuesday night as a couple of quite weak shortwaves moves through.
Temperatures will still remain well above normal through the middle
of next week. Thereafter, some signs of a pattern change and
possible precipitation just beyond the forecast period Friday and
Saturday as troughing builds across the western US. Current forecast
in good shape this morning. No updates.


.AVIATION...Valid thru 13/18Z. Some wisps of cirrus level clouds
passing overhead, otherwise clear. Normal surface winds are
expected, variable in direction and mainly less than 12 kts through
13/06Z, then becoming southeasterly at KTUS around 15 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and much warmer than normal temperatures will
continue through next Friday. Generally light winds are in the
forecast with the exception of Saturday into early Sunday where
easterly winds are expected, locally as high as 20 mph.


.CLIMATE...Tucson`s record high temperature Saturday (Jan 13) is 78
degrees, which is the only remaining day this month with a record
high temperature *not* in the 80s.






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