Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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388
FXUS65 KTWC 041550
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
850 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH TODAY WILL LEAD
TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE ON TRACK TO
BE AROUND 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE WEDNESDAY`S HIGH. THE WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WEAK RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED RIDGE...AND RATHER CLASSIC OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN BECOME WELL ABOVE
CLIMO NORMS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/18Z.
SKC WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING IN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND UNDER 12 KTS...WITH A BIT MORE OF
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT COMPARED TO NORMAL TRENDS. A MORE PRONOUNCED
EAST WIND IN PLACE LATE-MORNING AND AFTERNOON...GENERALLY BETWEEN 10
TO 15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... DRY CONDITIONS WITH EAST WINDS FROM INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. 20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY UNDER 15 MPH...THOUGH
AREAS PRONE TO EAST WINDS MAY SEE SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO AROUND 20-
25 MPH AT TIMES. A WARMING TREND WILL BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL LAG SLIGHTLY BEHIND...NOT APPROACHING
NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL HELP WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY REBOUNDS IN THE MEANTIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. DESPITE THIS
SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND TODAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A RATHER AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO DRY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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