Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 172118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
218 PM MST Fri Mar 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...The hot and dry conditions of late will continue into
the early part of next week with little change. A storm system is
expected to move across the region the middle part of next week
which will result in cooler temperatures, gusty winds and a chance
of showers.


.DISCUSSION...Another 90 degree day in the books as we crossed
that threshold at 1:17 pm this afternoon for 5 in a row which ties
the number of convective 90+ days in a row in March. We will add
to that tally over the next few days and more details can be found
below in the climate section.

Through the weekend the only "problem" is deciding on how hot to
go. MOS guidance and internal guidance suggest 95 will be really
tough to do tomorrow however the airport has been running hotter
than either would suggest the last few days. While I don`t think
we will quite make our first 95 tomorrow I`ll leave it, as it
will be close. We actually may have a better shot at it Sunday.
Anyway, outside of nitpicking a degree here and there, temps
around 20 warmer than average and near/above record levels through

Then a storm system is expected to affect the area the middle part
of next week. Current model runs are a bit slower than yesterday
with this system which brought about a few tweaks but overall
theme the same. Monday and Tuesday temps will slowly trend down
with afternoon southwest breezes developing. Wednesday the
cooldown will be a bit more significant with gusty southwest winds
and a chance of a few showers west and northwest. At this time the
best chance for showers overall is Wednesday night into Thursday
although the focus will be north of our area. Will certainly see
cooler temps Thursday onward. Then long range guidance continues
to suggest another storm system transiting the region late the
following weekend.


.AVIATION...Valid through 19/00Z.
Mostly clear skies with patches of cirrus clouds at times and a
few cumulus clouds around 10-12k ft over the far southern
mountains into this evening. There will be a few more cumulus
clouds over the mountains Saturday afternoon southeast of Tucson.
Winds will continue to be light with a few afternoon gusts to 20
kts and somewhat variable in direction. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Very warm and dry conditions will continue into
early next week with continued low RH levels in the afternoon and
marginal overnight recoveries. Winds Saturday and Sunday
afternoons will be more westerly but remaining below 15 mph with
a few higher gusts. A Pacific storm system is expected to move
across the area the middle part of next week with gusty SW winds
Monday through Thursday. The moisture is not expected to ramp up
until at least late Wednesday so dry and breezy conditions
expected for a few afternoons. Borderline critical conditions
possible Tuesday and Wednesday mainly zone 152 then there is a
fair chance of showers Wednesday night into Thursday. There is a
decent chance for another storm system late the following weekend.


.CLIMATE...The average monthly temperature for Tucson (TIA)
through March 16th ranks as the warmest to date (and at this point
it looks like a sure thing to end the month still in the lead).
We`ve had a total of 6 - 90 degree days so far (including today),
with 5 in a row through Today. The current high temperature
forecast for Tucson has a run of 90+ highs continuing through at
least Monday. Record for consecutive March days with 90+ highs is
5 days, first set in 1910 then later tied in 1989 and 2015. All-
time March record for the number of 90+ days is 8 set in 1910. If
the forecast holds through Monday, that would be 8 consecutive
days and 9 total (with one more possible on Tuesday). If 95
occurs Saturday or Sunday it would be the first of the year, and
tie for 4th earliest occurrence of 95.




FIRE WEATHER...Cerniglia

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