Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 271606
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WE`LL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES
THIS WEEKEND FOR TUCSON AND THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH MID TO UPPER
90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK IMPULSE IS LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE BASE
OF THE REGIONAL TROUGH. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE TO ANY SURFACE PRECIP. AS THIS LAST PIECE
OF ENERGY PUSHES NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS A STRONG AND BROAD BASED RIDGE POSITION WILL CONSOLIDATE FROM
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RESULTING WARMING TREND
WILL PUSH TUCSON TO IT`S FIRST 100+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/18Z. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL
AS A WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING SWLY/WLY SURFACE WIND AT 10-15
KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS...STRONGEST SURFACE WIND IN THE
VICINITY OF KOLS...KFHU AND KDUG. OTHERWISE NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. A LITTLE STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON EAST/SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...OVER
PORTIONS OF SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS THIS WEEK...WITH SOME GUSTINESS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED HIGH CLOUD
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING NRN BAJA. SO EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON TUESDAY. TROFINESS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE OVER
THE STATE THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
THE LOWER DESERTS INCLUDING TUCSON.

MOISTURE PUSH ACROSS NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING SOME CLOUD
BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

POSSIBLE PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF BAJA. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF CONSISTENCY
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN NOW SHOWING WIDE SPREAD ON WHERE THIS SYSTEM MAY
END UP. WAIT AND SEE PERIOD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/FRENCH


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