Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 230956
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
255 AM MST SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...
RESULTING IN A DRY FIRST DAY OF THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE AND SPREAD TO MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA TODAY
AS A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS DRIER AIR IN
COMBINATION WITH A WARM LAYER OF AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN TODAY. LATEST MODELS KEEP THIS DRY AIR
AROUND ON SUNDAY BEFORE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM MEXICO
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
SUBSEQUENTLY...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CAN BE
ANTICIPATED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...MODELS SHOWED
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING BACK OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WAS PROGGED TO BECOME
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA BY THURSDAY.
THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ALLOW DEEP
MOISTURE TO SPREAD FARTHER NORTH BY NEXT FRIDAY. THAT SAID...A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL EAST OF A KOLS TO KSAD LINE THRU
23/15Z. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL OVERSPREADING THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AFT 23/15Z...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL AND
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AREAWIDE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH JUST A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE OVER
FAR EASTERN AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA. A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN OCCUR DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES BACK INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG...GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS. OUTSIDE OF THESE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS...20-FOOT
WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY/TERRAIN DRIVEN AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
MPH.

&&

$$

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