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000
FXUS65 KTWC 131611
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST MON MAY 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP WITH HIGHS NEAR
100 DEGREES IN LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS AND 90S ELSEWHERE.  A WEAK LOW
IN NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
A FEW MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BREEZY EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA AGAIN TODAY...HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.
STILL JUST MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CU FIELDS AND AGAIN WOULD
ONLY DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE
AND THERMAL PROFILE...NOT EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION TODAY.

THIS COULD CHANGE TUESDAY AS THE SLOWLY FILLING LOW IN NORTHWEST
MEXICO FINALLY SHEARS INTO THE HIGHER LATITUDE PATTERN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  AS IT CLIPS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DAY LIKE SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THAT COLLAPSE AND GENERATE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AS THEY TRY TO PUSH INTO VALLEYS.  LOWER LEVELS TO REMAIN DRY
HOWEVER...SO RATHER MEAGER MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

WITH THE WEAK LOW FINALLY OUT OF THE PICTURE...OUR CORNER OF THE
LARGER SCALE RIDGE WILL HAVE ROOM TO HEAT UP A FEW MORE DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A THREAT FOR THE FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY AT
TIA.  WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST IN THE 98 TO 99 RANGE FOR THOSE DAYS
HOWEVER...WHICH IS SQUEEZING OUT ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO FINALLY CLINCH THE DEAL.

WEAK TROUGHINESS THROUGH THE REGION TO END THE WEEK WILL KNOCK A FEW
DEGREES OFF THE DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND KICK UP A
BIT MORE OF A WESTERLY BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON.  THE LATEST ECMWF
TRENDS HAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKING HOTTER AGAIN WITH A WEST COAST
RIDGE ABLE TO MAINTAIN BETTER GEOMETRY AS A LATE SEASON WEATHER
SYSTEM STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
IF WE DON`T MANAGE THE 100 THIS WEEK...THEN SUNDAY OR MONDAY NEXT
WEEK WILL PROBABLY DO THE TRICK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY SKC-FEW CLOUDS 12-15K FT AGL THRU 14/08Z. LCL
SCT-BKN CLOUDS VCNTY MTNS EAST OF KTUS FROM 14/20Z THRU 15/03Z WITH
ISOLD -TSRA POSSIBLE. SURFACE WIND ELY 10-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
BECOMING LIGHT AFT 14/04Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA ALTHOUGH OVERALL THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS
SUNDAY. AGAIN THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
AND MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF A THREAT OF ISOLATED MAINLY MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN AREAS TUESDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.  WINDS
WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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