Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 160940

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
240 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry with warmer conditions through Friday. A strong
Pacific storm system will bring a very good chance of valley rain,
mountain snow, cooler temperatures and gusty winds this weekend.


.DISCUSSION...A clear sky prevailed across SE Arizona this morning.
Upper ridge axis to our west will push east across the state today
bringing warmer high temperatures, running 2 to 5 degrees above mid-
February normals. Will see some high clouds pushing in from the west
this afternoon, becoming mostly cloudy tonight then partly to mostly
cloudy conditions on Friday. Highs Friday will be similar to what is
forecast today.

Models/ensembles continue to be locked in with bringing a stronger,
windy, wet and cooler Pacific system across the area this weekend.
Could see some upslope type showers develop late Friday afternoon
into early Friday evening with isolated showers west and north of
Tucson Friday night into early Saturday morning. Otherwise prime
time for showers/mountain snow showers still on track for Saturday
afternoon into Sunday before diminishing from west to east Sunday
night into Monday as trof axis pushes east of the area. Made some
slight adjustments on QPF values with valley forecast storm totals
in the 0.33" to 0.85" with localized higher amounts, especially
north of Tucson. Mountain QPF values in the 0.75" to 1.40" range.
Snow levels down to around 6000 feet Sunday morning with totals
above 7000 feet in the 5"-13" range. Highs on Sunday will be about
10 degrees below normal. Can`t forget about the winds as they become
rather gusty Saturday afternoon/evening.

Dry with warmer Monday thru Wednesday. The next Pacific weather
system will bring a glancing blow to the area as it moves by to the
north on Thursday.


.AVIATION...Valid through 17/12Z.
Clear skies thru 17/03Z, then increasing cirrus clouds mainly above
20k ft AGL through the remainder of the forecast period. SFC wind
less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected into Friday, followed by
a good chance of valley rain/mountain snow over the weekend as a
strong Pacific storm system moves across the region. Expect gusty
south to southwest winds Friday afternoon through Saturday,
diminishing on Sunday. 20-foot winds will generally be less than 15
mph through much of next week. Dry and warmer conditions are
expected Tuesday into Thursday of next week.





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