Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 212138
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF TUCSON TODAY...THEN
AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST
OF TUCSON. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE HAS BROKEN DOWN WITH THE
HIGH CENTER RECONSOLIDATING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND RIDGE AXIS
AMPLIFYING JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. ENERGY DIGGING DEEP INTO THE
REGION NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH GRADIENT CONTINUING TO TIGHTEN TODAY.
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT STILL BELOW WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON
SUNDAY MOISTURE DEEPENS A BIT.

STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS MONDAY AS A STRONGER IMPULSE BOTTOMS OUT JUST
NORTH OF OUR AREA. A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THIS IMPULSE
BECOMES POSITIVELY TILTED AND DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE
MEAN TROUGH POSITION DOWNSTREAM. UP TO 2 INCHES OR SO IN THE
SOUTHERN WITH MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 8K FEET SOUTH AND
6K FEET NORTH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY (ISH) BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONGER
WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/00Z.
VFR WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 15K FEET INTO THIS EVENING. A MODEST
MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF KTUS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST
OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER SUNDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING OCCASIONAL
VALLEY RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF
TUCSON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE NORTH OF TUCSON
MONDAY...THEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY.
THIS FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING PERIODS OF AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTH
OF TUCSON. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN




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