Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KTWC 260344 CCA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
840 PM MST WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BRING EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME LOCALES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
HIGH CLOUDS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY MAKING THEIR WAY SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL GIVE US SOME PERIODS OF CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER DAY OVER DAY...BUT STILL AROUND 6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN TUCSON. CLOUD COVER HELPED TO MITIGATE TEMPERATURES IN THE
EASTERN SECTIONS...DOUGLAS FOR EXAMPLE ONLY REACHING ONE DEGREE
ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER OVER LAST NIGHTS LOW. AN EAST TO WEST SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MAKING GUSTY EAST WINDS POSSIBLE IN
AREAS PRONE TO ENHANCED EASTERLY WINDS. WITH AN INCREASING HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCE...EXPECT AROUND A THREE DEGREE INCREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY OVER THE HIGHS WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SHOW THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE MAKING ITS
WAY EAST...THE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN COASTLINE. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES EAST TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE...PEAKING ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES
OVERHEAD. RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS
SATURDAY...COOLING ONLY A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO FLATTEN EAST A NEW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE
AREA...MAKING FOR A COOLER START TO THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH STILL
KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO DEWPOINTS AND SKY COVER GRIDS... OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FEW-SCT
CIRRUS AOA 25K FT AGL MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. AFT
26/10Z...SOME ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS MAY OCCUR...MAINLY NEAR THE
KDUG TERMINAL...LASTING THROUGH MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK
AND THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO NEAR-RECORD LEVELS BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE GILA RIVER VALLEY. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR LATER IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. A FEW LOCALS MAY THREATEN RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY
WITH SATURDAY SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF RECORD HIGHS BEING TIED OR
BROKEN. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...IT
LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS EARLIER THOUGHT. SO CHANCES
ARE LOWERED FOR RECORD HIGHS ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN
BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE EASTERN AREAS. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH THE GFS STILL THE WETTEST BUT NOT AS WET AS IT WAS
24 HOURS AGO.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

RH

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

















USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.