Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KTWC 260340
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
839 PM MST TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PREVAIL MAINLY FROM
TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING.
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY WAS JUST SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SAFFORD INTO THE WHITE MOUNAINS AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LATEST MODELS SUGGESTED THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NOT REALLY LOOKING
AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW
SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN SONORA MEXICO COULD STILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATER. THUS...WILL KEEP LOW POP VALUES IN THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK.
THUS...NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES EXPECTED THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE OTHER SECTIONS IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/06Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
-TSRA/-SHRA WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS MAINLY TO 40 KTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8-12K FT
AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BECOME CENTERED OVER ERN
NEW MEXICO/TEXAS PANHANDLE WED. THIS UPPER HIGH IS THEN PROGGED TO
BECOME CENTERED OVER SRN ARIZONA FRI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL THEN PREVAIL MAINLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD THUR
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE REDUCED FRI
AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES POSITIONED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON FRI.

25/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE THEN SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING SW-NE ORIENTED
UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO BE OVER SE ARIZONA SAT-TUE. HOWEVER...THESE
SOLUTIONS WERE SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST WITH PROJECTED AVAILABLE
MOISTURE VERSUS THEIR PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. PER COORD WITH NEIGHBORING
WFO/S...OPTED TO INCREASE THE INHERITED POPS SOMEWHAT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. THUS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAINLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD WILL PREVAIL SAT-TUE. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY.

A VERY GRADUAL DAILY WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THRU SAT
FOLLOWED BY A MODEST COOLING TREND SUN-TUE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.