Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 181536

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
835 AM MST Tue Apr 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Very warm and dry weather will persist into at least
early next week. Occasional high clouds, and gusty afternoon
winds at times as systems brush by to our north.


.DISCUSSION...The upper ridge over the southwestern United States
will flatten over the next 24 hours as a storm system moves across
the northern Great Basin/northern tier of states. This will lead to
a couple of degrees of cooling on Wednesday and Thursday, but
temperatures will still remain above normal.

For today, with the ridge axis nearly overhead expect clear skies
and warm afternoon temperatures, as readings top out nearly 10
degrees above normal. Some afternoon/early evening breezes are
expected with the strong solar heating. Current forecast on track,
no updates. For more information on the latter periods of the
forecast, please refer to the prev discussion section below.


.AVIATION...Valid through 19/12Z.
VFR with clear skies/SKC conditions. Normal diurnal wind trends,
gusty at times in the afternoon and early evening.

Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and above average daytime
temperature will continue into early next week. Minimum daytime
humidities will be in the single digits and teens. For the most
part, 20-foot winds will follow normal diurnal trends at less than
15 mph with occasional afternoon gustiness through Wednesday. A
dry weather system will pass north of the area Thursday into
Friday, with breezy conditions for much of Southeast Arizona. This
may create critical fire weather conditions for isolated spots
mainly east of Tucson on Thursday and Friday. Another round of
breezy to locally wind conditions are possible Sunday and Monday.


.PREV DISCUSSION...Weak ridging will buckle over the next 48 to 72
hours as a system digs into the Great Basin north of our area. We`ll
continue with dry conditions this far south (current precipitable
water around 1/3 of an inch and surface dew points in the teens).
We`ll pick up a little more wind however, and daytime highs will
drop a degree or two (remaining well above average though).

A sneakily strong ridge will phase in from the west over the weekend
with thickness values that support temperatures in the mid to upper
90s at Tucson International Airport. Our first 95+ is a good bet
with temperatures around 10 to 12 (and maybe 15) degrees above
climatology across Southeast Arizona on Saturday and Sunday.





PREV DISCUSSION > Meyer/Rasmussen

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