Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 011924
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
124 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD...WITH
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW BUILDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC...WEAK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL BUT
SCNTRL SD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ERN MT/ERN WY. SCT
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWFA DUE TO SHORT WAVE.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST OF THE CWFA THIS
EVENING BRINGING SHRA/TSRA TO AN END...AND CLEARING SKIES LATER
TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE
EVENING.

TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL BRING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED/THU. MODELS SHOW DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST FORCING AND BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA...THOUGH FAR NWRN SD COULD SEE SOME PRECIP CLIP THE AREA
WED NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WED/THU
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WED WILL GIVE
WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS THU. BEYOND THU THERE ARE SOME DIFFS IN
MODELS AS A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...IN THE MEAN THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE SCNTRL-SERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING PERIODIC SHORT-
WAVE TROFS ACROSS THE CWA...ALBEIT WITH LIMITED FORCING AND
MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE PERIODS WITH THE
MOST CONSISTENT TIMING OF WAVES. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN WY AND WRN
SD THIS AFTN AND EVNG AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA. PRECIP WILL THEN PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...BUNKERS






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