Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 161711
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY. SKIES
WILL REMAIN SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...THUS NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
RIDGE WILL BRING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE ON
THURSDAY....AS A WEAK UPPER TROF AND COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AFTER CLR SKIES TDA...MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE ROCKIES TONITE
AND WED. SFC WNDS WL BE LGT AS A WEAK LEE TROF REMAINS OVR ERN MT-
WRN SD-WRN NE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...55






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