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000
FXUS63 KUNR 071024
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
324 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD TROF OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.
SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 5 BELOW IN
SOUTHWEST SD...TO 30 BELOW IN NORTHWEST SD. WIND CHILLS ARE STILL
20 TO 40 BELOW.

FOR TODAY...COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE AS WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES TO BRING VERY LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF
THE AREA TODAY. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 10 BELOW ZERO
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...TO NEAR 10 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

TONIGHT...NORTHERN NEVADA SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION
AS WEAK ENERGY LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SNOW CHANCES WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS BEST LIFT CROSSES THE AREA. AROUND AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH TEMPS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
NEAR 15 BELOW ZERO. SOME AREAS MAY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE BITTER
WIND CHILLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER TROF AXIS APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY RISE
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS RISING TO NEAR 15 DEGREES. LIGHT SNOW SHIFTS
EAST LATE IN THE DAY AS UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE EVENING AND PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY TO PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S...AND WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AS WARMER AIR FLOWS OVER THE COLD AIR AT THE
SFC. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

 MVFR CIGS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE REGION
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS IN -SN OR FLURRIES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST /1 PM CST/ TODAY FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074.

WY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10