Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 301440
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
840 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

WEBCAMS/SURFACE OBS SHOW PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO FALL AS RAIN
ACROSS SW/SCNTRL SD. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS STAYED WELL SOUTH OF
THE NEB BORDER...NEAR KANW. SO HAVE CANCELLED ALL WINTER
HEADLINES. ALSO MADE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT THE MORE
SOUTHERN POSITIONING OF THE PRECIP. HRRR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BLKHLS AREA INTO PARTS OF NE WY THROUGH THE
AFTN...SO HAVE LEFT IN SOME MINIMAL POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SD...STILL
IN THE FORM OF RAIN ATTM. PRECIPITATION HAS NOT DEVELOPED OVER THE
HILLS AS EXPECTED...AND SO CANCELED THE ADVISORY THERE. IF SNOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE HILLS THIS MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. TECHNICALLY HAVE LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL IN
GRIDS FOR SOUTHERN SD...ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS THERE AS WELL. HOWEVER...BEING ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NEBRASKA...WILL CONTINUE
ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLE FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL THIS MORNING.
NOTED IN WSW THAT HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW CLOUDS BLANKET
THE CWA. RADAR SHOWS PRECIP BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
SD...AND CURRENT OBS ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER INDICATE RAIN. TEMPS
ARE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY.

UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH RAIN/SNOW NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP PRECIP FROM SPREADING TOO MUCH PAST THE I-90 CORRIDOR. MEDIUM-
RANGE MODELS ARE OVERESTIMATING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS
MORNING...AS ECM/GFS/NAM/SREF HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW BY NOW IN
THE AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY OR RECEIVING RAIN. LATEST HRRR
RUN SHOWS HARDLY ANY SNOW FOR SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH ABOUT AN INCH
IN THE HILLS. EVEN THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL
PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN...WITH LOW-LEVEL TEMPS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
SNOW. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DYNAMIC COOLING AND WET-
BULB EFFECTS TO OVERCOME THE WARM SURFACE WITH A QUICK FEW INCHES
OF SNOW THIS MORNING...SO WILL LET ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR NOW.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
SD THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE LOWER
50S FARTHER NORTH.

PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S...STARTING A WARMING TREND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. NEXT UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN TRACKS INTO THE
PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. RAIN/SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME
MVFR/IFR VSBY WITH THE PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7


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